Stock Watch: Early 2015 Look
As the dust settles on what was hopefully a championship winning fantasy campaign, it would be prudent to take a moment and reflect on the exciting fantasy football season we just witnessed, but that sounds boring. Instead, here is a way, way, way too early look at players who saw their 2015 fantasy football stock rise or fall over the final several weeks of the season.
Stock Up – 2015
Jonathan Stewart
The story of Jonathan Stewart had already been written. A once promising running back, Stewart had his career torn apart by injury after signing a big-money extension, never returning to the level that earned him all the praise and adulations. It is a tale as old a time.
As it turns out, though, Stewart’s story may just be entering its third act. Finally healthy and without the rotted husk of DeAngelo Williams holding him back, Stewart has been outstanding over the last month of the season. He has carried the ball 78 times for 437 yards (5.6 YPC) over the last four games, the most yards of any back over that span, and has a great shot to finish strong against Atlanta’s beatable run defense Week 17.
The last month has shown the talent is still very much there for Stewart, and it is encouraging he has managed to put four games of almost 20 carry a day work together without suffering even the slightest of knocks. No matter how long he stays healthy, though, the injury history will always loom large over Stewart, especially in the minds of the fantasy owners that have been burned by his many ailments.
That wariness on the part of the fantasy community at large should be a blessing come August. With Williams still hanging around and the prospect of injury lurking overhead, Stewart is almost certain to be undervalued during the 2015 draft season.
Latavius Murray
A player that most certainly will not be undervalued is Latavius Murray. Long a favorite of the metric community, Murray inexplicably languished behind the likes of Darren McFadden and Maurice Jones-Drew through the first 11 weeks of the season.
He got his chance against Kansas City, however, and responded with 112 yards and two touchdowns on only four carries before being leaving the game with a concussion. The concussion forced Murray to miss one game, but since returning there has been zero question who the starter is in Oakland.
Tough matchups and some bad play calling have hurt Murray’s overall numbers, but he has flashed the skills that could make him a fantasy star over the last month of the season. With an emerging quarterback, a hopefully better coaching situation and an improving offensive line, Murray is set up to be a solid RB2 with upside heading into the 2015 season.
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Marc Trestman’s Next Quarterback
The situation surrounding Marc Trestman and Jay Cutler is Chicago is a muddled as they come, but the safe money says at least one if not both will not be back with the Bears in 2015. In the end, that is probably good news for the Bears. Simply put, Cutler is not the precise quarterback Trestman needs to run his offense.
Even though Cutler is not a great fit in Trestman’s offense, it seems literally any other quarterback is. Josh McCown and Jimmy Clausen have combined for a 64 percent completion percentage and a 15-to-2 touchdown to interception ratio under Trestman’s tutelage the last two seasons. Without Trestman, McCown and Clausen have combined to complete 56 percent of their throws and have thrown 50 touchdowns to 66 interceptions over their respective careers. The whisperer is real.
Where Trestman will be next year is unclear, but there is a decent chance he will be running someone’s offense somewhere in the NFL. Whoever he has a quarterback will be someone to target next summer.
Doug Martin
Aside from a 96 yard outburst against Carolina Week 14 – yes in Doug Martin’s world that is considered an outburst – the numbers have not been pretty for Martin since returning from an ankle injury Week 12. The lack of production can hardly be blamed on Martin, who has run well over the last several weeks. The Tampa Bay offensive line is atrocious, the quarterback situation is dire and OC Marcus Arroyo appears to have little idea what is going on.
Luckily for Martin, there is a reasonable chance he will escape Tampa Bay this offseason. ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported early in November the Bucs would look to deal Martin during the offseason after failing to secure a trade deadline deal. Martin may have changed the front office’s mind with his play the last month, but it would not be surprising if Lovie Smith and company wanted to move on from a back selected by a previous regime.
That could be great news for Martin since basically any team in the NFL has a better offensive situation that a Bucs team that has scored more than 20 points once since their Week 7 bye. Even if Martin sticks around in Tampa, there is almost no way the Bucs offense can be this dysfunctional again next season. Martin has the talent to be a very good fantasy running back. He should be a nice value next August.
Jeremy Hill
I hesitate to put Jeremy Hill here because he has been a fantasy starter for quite some time, and he will likely be valued correctly next draft season. That said, what Hill has done since becoming the unquestioned lead back has been stellar. Hill has 295 yards in the two games since being named the starter, and has averaged 127 yards and a little more than a touchdown in the six games he has at least 15 carries this season.
Hill is just a better fit for Hue Jackson’s offense than Giovani Bernard, who is better suited to the complementary role he has filled the last several weeks. With little reason to believe the Bengals will change up the work splits next season, Jeremy Hill will be well on the RB1 radar next summer.
Teddy Bridgewater
There is an argument to be made that no player improved more as the season wore on than Teddy Bridgewater. After two disastrous starts against Detroit and Buffalo early in the season, Bridgewater began to slowly improve. He began to cut out the mistakes that plagued him early in the season, and actually turned into a serviceable fantasy quarterback down the stretch, throwing for two touchdowns in four of five games and surpassing the 300-yard mark twice.
It is not time to crown Teddy a sure-fire QB1 by any stretch of the imagination. The offensive line in Minnesota needs a lot of work, and the skill players at Teddy’s disposal leave something to be desired. If the Vikings can fix the supporting cast, though, there is no reason Bridgewater will not be a QB2 with upside next summer.
Dynasty Stashes
Cris Carter’s 6-5, 205 pound son Duron Carter will be a hot property for NFL teams come February after posting a 75-1,030-7 line for the Montreal Alouettes this season. … With C.J. Spiller perhaps gone and Fred Jackson getting older by the minute, Bryce Brown could carve out a large role in the Bills’ offense next season. … Albert Wilson has been putting on a show of late, at least as good of a show as any receiver can put on with Alex Smith throwing them the ball. He has talent, but will be limited by the Chiefs’ offense. … Another former CFL star to target is Dontrelle Inman, who broke out for 79 yards on seven catches Week 16. Tall with decent wheels and good hands, Inman could unseat the aging Malcom Floyd. … All Chris Polk does is score touchdowns, and there is at least an outside chance he is giving a lot more opportunities to find the end zone next season. … With Reggie Bush’s days in Detroit perhaps numbered, Theo Riddick could have a decent passing-game role next season. Riddick averaged five catches in games without Bush in 2014. … Owed $5.5 million in 2014, there is a chance Marques Colston will not be back with New Orleans. That could open up some playing time for Nick Toon, who has seen his role jump since Brandin Cooks went on injured reserve. … Corey Washington has a great chance to depose the underwhelming Rueben Randle as the Giants’ No. 3 receiver next season. … Michael Campanaro flashed before getting injured in 2014. He is a better fit for the slot than the miscast Marlon Brown. … Damien Williams has done enough to enter 2015 as the Dolphins’ No. 2 back behind Lamar Miller.
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Stock Down – 2015
LeSean McCoy
Much of the early season discussion in fantasy circles was about the relative lack of success of one LeSean McCoy. Some of those questions stopped after McCoy put together two huge games against the pitiful Titans’ and Cowboys’ run defenses late in November, but down the stretch McCoy reverted back into the early-season player that struggled to make the chunk plays that had led him to fantasy glory in 2013.
Some of McCoy’s struggles early could be attributed to the Eagles’ banged up offensive line, but that has not been an issue for several weeks. The real problem is McCoy has been far too hesitant this season with the ball in his hands, often stopping his feet near the line of scrimmage and passing up good holes in the search for better ones. That perhaps made sense when the Eagles offensive line was in shambles early in the season, but it has continued on even with the line healthy and playing reasonably well over the last several weeks.
McCoy bounced back after a similarly disappointing 2012 season, but the road back to fantasy excellence may be a steeper trek this time. The presence of Darren Sproles has completely removed the passing-game value that made McCoy has top-tier PPR play. After four seasons with at least 60 targets, there is a real chance McCoy does not reach 40 this year, and he has yet to score a receiving touchdown after getting at least two each of the last four years.
There is some reason for optimism, though. McCoy is scoring the fewest touchdowns per game since his rookie year this season, but he is on pace to match the most red-zone touches of his career. If he can marginally improve his per touch efficiency and get back to converting red zone opportunities into touchdowns, McCoy could once again be a top-tier fantasy running back. That said, he will be hard to trust in the top-five of 2015 drafts.
Drew Brees
All the numbers have looked right about the same for Drew Brees this season. He is within striking distance of 5,000 yards for the fourth straight year, he surpassed 30 touchdowns for the seventh straight season and he has a great chance to finish the season completing above 70 percent of his throws. There is not much to complain about in that stat line.
The problem for Brees is while the numbers have looked the same, something has seemed off on the field the second half of the season. Brees’ interception percentage is actually lower than his career average, but a lot of his late-season picks have come from pressing to find big plays that were not there. His overall touchdown number is not terrible, but he has thrown only one touchdown pass four of the last eight games and has just two first quarter touchdown passes all season. That second number could help explain why more than half Brees’ pass attempts this season have come while the Saints were trailing.
2014 will go down as a lost season for the Saints, but it could also be the beginning of a decline for Drew Brees, who will be 36 by the time the 2015 season begins. The good news is the decline for quarterbacks is usually gradual, and the offense around Brees should continue to be good enough for him to be a mid-range QB1. I am less confident he will continue to be the locked in top-three option he has been the last half decade.
Josh Gordon
After waiting all season for Josh Gordon to ride in on a white horse and lead countless fantasy teams to championship trophies, Gordon’s last five games could not have been more disappointing. Gordon has scored double-digit fantasy points one time since returning from suspension Week 12 and has yet to find the endzone.
It is hard to pin the lack of success on Gordon, though. The Browns’ offense has been downright dysfunctional over the second half of the season. Brian Hoyer was terrible the entire time Gordon played with him, and Johnny Manziel was unbelievably worse in his short stint as the starter. Without a quarterback that could consistently get him the ball, not quite in game shape off a long layoff and dealing with a playbook he was still trying to learn, it really is not all that surprising Gordon struggled.
At least two of those problems will solve themselves before next season, and hopefully the quarterback situation in Cleveland gets figured out soon. Gordon’s talent did not disappear during his suspension, and barring another off-the-field incident, Gordon is a good bet to reclaim his spot in the top-ten of fantasy receivers next season.
