All Star Break Edition
Once again, the American League has won the All Star Game. The closers weren't the highlight of the evening. Seven relievers pitched a combined seven innings and allowed four runs. Unsurprisingly, Aroldis Chapman was the best. He struck out the side in his lone inning. Francisco Rodriguez pitched the worst by coughing up two runs.
Breaks are always a good time to take a step back and evaluate what has actually happened. While this column usually concerns itself with what we should expect going forward, today we'll focus purely on half season performance. There is a transformation in the tiers when we focus solely on results rather than talent.
After some consideration, I decided to keep the methodology simple. Rather than use z-scores to determine the precise(ish) value of each closer relative to a hypothetical replacement level closer, I decided to use some old fashioned Excel filtering and my very own eye balls. The results should be comparable, and it gives me more flexibility to make judgment calls. I split everybody into groups of five so there are six tiers today. Let the experiment begin!
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Tier 1
Jeurys Familia, New York Mets
Glen Perkins, Minnesota Twins
Drew Storen, Washington Nationals
Trevor Rosenthal, St. Louis Cardinals
Mark Melancon, Pittsburgh Pirates
Recall draft season? Jenrry Mejia was viewed as a decent closer. He went for around $8 in auctions and in the late-teens in snake drafts. Owners who didn't trust him also grabbed a share of Bobby Parnell. Nobody was in on Familia. At the break, he's arguably the top closer in baseball with a tiny 1.25 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 27 saves, and a strikeout per inning. Familia has a career best 14.5 percent swinging strike rate with a 56 percent ground ball rate.
Perkins is right on Familia's heels. His 28 saves, 1.21 ERA, and 0.83 WHIP are all just the slightest bit superior to Familia. The Mets hurler was selected first because he has an additional two wins and seven strikeouts. Perkins is a left-handed slider specialist performing at his absolute ceiling. If you can spare the saves, Perkins owners should consider selling high. His 3.26 xFIP would put him towards the bottom of this list.
Among the top performers, Storen has the best strikeout rate with 10.26 K/9. His 27 saves, 1.89 ERA, and 0.99 WHIP are the smallest of downgrades from Familia and Perkins. Early in the season, the Nationals were in the market for a new closer. You have to think Storen's first half success has closed the door on that idea.
Rosenthal and Melancon makes for an interesting juxtaposition. Rosenthal has 26 saves, 1.49 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 9.57 K/9. Melancon's compiled a league leading 29 saves with a 1.47 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and just 6.49 K/9. Do you prefer a low WHIP or more strikeouts? Personally, I'll go for the Ks.
Tier 2
Andrew Miller, Dellin Betances, New York Yankees
A.J. Ramos, Miami Marlins
Francisco Rodriguez, Milwaukee Brewers
Aroldis Chapman, Cincinnati Reds
Kenley Jansen, Los Angeles Dodgers
If one of Miller or Betances had held the closer job for the entire season, they'd probably be the top reliever in the game. The two Yankees closers have combined for 25 saves. They both have a 1.53 ERA. Miller has a 0.72 WHIP (second best among all closers) and 14.42 K/9. Betances' 0.83 WHIP and 14.74 K/9 are also highly desirable. Owners who paid full price for Betances on draft day have still be treated to an excellent fantasy season.
Ramos' 0.71 WHIP is coupled with a 1.11 ERA. Both are bests among all qualified closers. Ironically, he's not even the best reliever on his team (that would be Carter Capps). However, he would be the highest ranked closer if not for starting the season in middle relief. He has just 14 saves to date.
Closers on bad teams still get saves. Just ask Rodriguez. He's slammed the door 19 times. A 1.41 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, and 10.41 K/9 would have him even higher on this list – if only he had more save opportunities. K-Rod is a rare ninth inning changeup specialist. It's allowed him to remain relevant even as his velocity continues to plunge.
When we revert to our usual tiers next week, you won't see me demoting Chapman from the top spot. With 15.67 K/9, he can singlehandedly help roto owners to the strikeout title. A 1.69 ERA is snazzy too. Where he gets dinged is with his modest 18 save total and 1.18 WHIP. Ideally, he would cut down on his 4.82 BB/9. We'll forgive him so long as he continues to average 100 mph.
Missing the first month of the season is the only thing keeping Jansen out of the top five. He's topped Chapman with 15.78 K/9. Unlike the Reds' closer, Jansen has a tiny 0.83 BB/9. He's also posted 16 saves, 1.66 ERA, and 0.55 WHIP.
Tier 3
Zach Britton, Baltimore Orioles
Brad Ziegler, Arizona Diamondbacks
Jonathan Papelbon, Philadelphia Phillies
Huston Street, Los Angeles Angels
Carson Smith, Seattle Mariners
Britton has it all – 23 saves, a 1.72 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and 10.06 K/9. The Orioles closer also features a ridiculous 75 percent ground ball rate. I remember when I took over this column from Eno Sarris early last summer. One of the mysteries I had to solve was how far to regress Britton's then 78 percent ground ball rate. The answer was three percentage points. Just three! Britton's buffed his strikeout rate and slashed his walk rate en route to a career season.
Ziegler missed the early portion of the season. He's worked frequently since his return. I've often referred to him as one of the worst closers in baseball. I still hold that expectation going forward, but it's time to credit him for an excellent first half. He has an excellent 1.18 ERA and 0.82 WHIP. After taking over the ninth midseason, Ziegler has 14 saves. His tiny 4.98 K/9, 3.44 FIP, and large platoon splits hurt his future value.
The Phillies closer wants out of Philadelphia. Who can blame him. He's a 34-year-old reliever in a game that increasingly cherishes youth and velocity. His 14 saves are accompanied by a 1.60 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and 9.36 K/9.
We've talked about 13 relievers, and we've yet to profile a pitcher with an ERA above 1.89 (Storen). Street has crossed the arbitrary 2.00 ERA threshold (2.27 ERA, oh how terrible!). He also has 24 saves, a 0.93 WHIP, and 9.08 K/9. He's currently sidelined with a minor groin injury, but he's expected to return to action on Friday.
Smith has one of the best pitching lines of the season. He's melted the competition with a 1.73 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, and 11.64 K/9. The issue is the presence of Fernando Rodney. Smith has just six saves on the season, and Rodney continues to snipe opportunities from him.
Tier 4
David Robertson, Chicago White Sox
Koji Uehara, Boston Red Sox
Roberto Osuna, Toronto Blue Jays
Luke Gregerson, Houston Astros
Tyler Clippard, Oakland Athletics
Robertson has spent the entire season in our Elite Tier, but his overall numbers are firmly in the middle of the pack. A 13.01 K/9, 2.45 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and 19 saves are all solid or better. This is a testament to the quality of ninth inning relievers everywhere. Robertson's four wins are a nice bonus.
Uehara lost his job late last season, but he's bounced back in a big way in 2015. The splitter specialist has 10.09 K/9 1.64 BB/9, a 2.45 ERA, and 0.88 WHIP. There have been some rumors that Uehara could be traded this summer. I consider it unlikely. The 40-year-old is signed through 2016.
Guys like Smith and Osuna were hard to rank today. Osuna has just four saves, but his other numbers deserve recognition. A 2.25 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, and 9.90 K/9 are helpful to any fantasy team.
For a while, I was worried that somebody else in the deep Astros bullpen would poach Gregerson's job. He went streaking at a good time. His 3.24 ERA is the worst of any pitcher profiled to this point. However, 8.64 K/9, 1.62 BB/9, and a 0.93 WHIP are all useful. His 18 saves are good for a three-way tie for 18th.
Clippard is another ranking challenge. His surface numbers include a 2.43 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and 8.51 K/9. He's saved 17 games. His peripherals are less encouraging. A 5.09 xFIP is terrifying. Clippard has always outperformed his peripherals due to a high infield fly rate. I'll give him the benefit of the doubt.
Tier 5
Cody Allen, Cleveland Indians
Craig Kimbrel, San Diego Padres
Greg Holland, Kansas City Royals
John Axford, Colorado Rockies
Shawn Tolleson, Texas Rangers
Now this is interesting. We find three of the best closers in the league ranked 21st to 23rd in actual performance. Through May 24, Allen had a 6.38 ERA. Since then, he hasn't allowed a run in 19 innings. Tie it all together and he has a 3.13 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 13.98 K/9, and 19 saves. Allen is a fantastic pitcher. Kudos to everyone who patiently waited for a rebound.
Kimbrel has also rebounded, but in a much more modest fashion. Opponents have managed an unusually high .356 BABIP against him despite the usual swing-and-miss stuff. Scouts claim his command was off earlier in the season. It appears to be better now. He remains an elite reliever despite a 3.24 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. At least Kimbrel owners have been treated to 23 saves and 12.96 K/9.
Here's another formerly elite closer outside of the top 20. Unlike Allen and Kimbrel, Holland's stuff has declined this season. His 2.70 ERA is actually better than expected given a high 5.06 BB/9. His velocity is also down two mph. With 19 saves, 10.46 K/9, and a 1.13 WHIP, he's still hugely valuable to fantasy owners.
It's not exactly shocking to see Axford working the ninth inning. No, the truly jaw dropping part is his 2.36 ERA as a Rockie. A 62.3 percent ground ball rate has saved his bacon. Axford has been homer prone in each of the last three seasons, but he's somehow kept the ball from flying at Coors Field. Were I a betting man (and I am!), I'd expect an ERA well over 3.00 over the remainder of the season.
The Rangers bullpen is one of the worst in the majors, but Tolleson has pitched decently since inheriting the ninth inning. His 3.13 ERA is supported by a 3.13 FIP and 3.12 xFIP. In other words, his ERA is probably luck neutral. He also has 9.64 K/9, 1.93 BB/9, a 1.21 WHIP, and 13 saves. It's best when closers are four category contributors. Tolleson checks the box on only three categories.
Tier 6
Brad Boxberger, Tampa Bay Rays
Joakim Soria Detroit Tigers
Jason Motte, Chicago Cubs
Jim Johnson, Atlanta Braves
Santiago Casilla, San Francisco Giants
Boxberger has a fantastic ceiling. His 23 saves and 12.00 K/9 ensure that his owners have benefited from his presence. Unfortunately, a 3.25 ERA and 1.31 WHIP aren't help anybody. Boxberger is a perfectly adequate closer, but the presence of Jake McGee makes his role with the Rays uncertain.
There are signs of distress when it comes to Soria. He's had a decent season with 20 saves, a 3.38 ERA, and 7.79 K/9. However, he's had trouble with home runs. In his last outing prior to the All Star Break, he gave up four runs, three of which were off a Brian Dozier homer. The Tigers have already signed Neftali Feliz. Along with hard thrower Bruce Rondon, some internal options are in development. They're also the kind of team that could acquire a Papelbon or Clippard.
Motte has ousted Hector Rondon from the ninth inning (even though Rondon would rank between Holland and Axford) through some sort of sorcery. A 2.97 ERA and 1.08 WHIP are fine, but his 5.94 K/9 is terrible on a team with much better relievers. A 4.79 xFIP hints at the pain to come. Don't feel too attached to Motte as a closer.
Jason Grilli is out for the season with a ruptured Achilles tendon. It's a shame since he was having such a nice rebound season. Johnson takes his place in the ninth inning, at least for now. Keep an eye on Arodys Vizcaino, especially since Johnson is July trade bait. The former Orioles closer has a 2.09 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 6.49 K/9, and five saves. With a 60 percent ground ball rate, he's somewhat similar to Axford.
Very last on the closer big board is Casilla. This was another challenging ranking. On the one hand, he has 23 saves. Several of the guys listed above have fewer than 10. Volume alone assures that he's been more valuable to date despite two category production. On a positive note, he's struck out a batter per inning – right around his career best. Unfortunately, he also has a tepid 3.34 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. The ERA is typical for a fantasy team. The WHIP is downright painful. The Giants have quality alternatives waiting in the wings.
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Injured
Joe Nathan, Detroit Tigers
Adam Ottavino, Colorado Rockies
Sean Doolittle, Oakland Athletics
Jason Grilli, Atlanta Braves
The Rangers cut bait with Neftali Feliz. The Tigers brought him aboard, and he hit 97 mph in his debut. As we already discussed, Grilli is out for the season with an exploded Achilles.
The Deposed
Chad Qualls
Joaquin Benoit
LaTroy Hawkins
Miguel Castro
Steve Cishek
Addison Reed
Neftali Feliz
Fernando Rodney
Hector Rondon
Brett Cecil
Jenrry Mejia
