Ryan's Top 125: Year in Review
I’m a glutton for punishment.
There’s no other reason why anyone would pitch an idea to turn back the clock almost 12 months for a look at how my preseason rankings panned out. The truth is, other than a few correct calls that have stuck in my mind for quite a while, I really didn’t remember my original top 125 until I went through this little exercise.
The season begins to evolve with the very first tournament and never looks back. Until now. So, if you are sitting in your office at work and looking to kill a few minutes with a nice laugh, you’ve come to the right place.
The players are sorted by their original preseason ranking. Here we go!
Preseason Rank Golfer (FedExCup; Earnings) Comment
1 Tiger Woods (218; 201) Well, I’m going to need a drink to complete this assignment. Perhaps Glass has an extra chair on his porch.
2 Brandt Snedeker (86; 60) A combination of a cool putter early in the year and a battle with the injury bug were more than he could overcome.
3 Matt Kuchar (8; 9) That’s more like it. Just as we suspected, his consistency proved to be of value to gamers across the board.
4 Phil Mickelson (68; 38) Rory McIlroy commented that both Woods and Mickelson are playing the last few holes of their Hall of Fame careers, and perhaps he’s right. Mickelson went without a win in 2013-14.
5 Adam Scott (12; 13) Continued to be a steady, world-class player and maintained a relatively light schedule in the U.S.
6 Justin Rose (11; 15) Experienced a slight regression, which isn’t uncommon for players coming off a season where they scored their first major championship title.
7 Rory McIlroy (3; 1) Returns to being the undisputed top player in the world. Equipment and relationship issues seem to be in the rearview mirror.
8 Billy Horschel (1; 7) Horschel waited until the Deutsche Bank Championship to begin satisfying his lofty expectations, but ultimately pulled it together and came through with the FedExCup title.
9 Jordan Spieth (15; 11) If there ever was a player thought to be immune from a sophomore slump, he was. While he didn’t claim his second PGA TOUR win, he did largely meet expectations by qualifying for the Ryder Cup team on merit and nearly winning the Masters.
10 Henrik Stenson (52; 49) I stand by my preseason comments and they can be copied and pasted for next season: “Given his streaky nature, if you told me he would finish second or 102nd in the FedExCup standings or PGA TOUR money list in 2013-14, I wouldn’t blink. When he’s on, he’s something special with the irons.”
11 Keegan Bradley (33; 28) Had four top-four finishes including a solo second at Bay Hill, but missed out on the TOUR Championship and needed a captain’s pick for the Ryder Cup.
12 Jason Dufner (90; 61) Just about the time it looked like he was going to pull it together, he suffered an injury and missed the FEDEXCUP Playoffs entirely.
13 Hunter Mahan (6; 22) A win at The Barclays was a season-saver for many gamers that invested in his direction. Comments in the preseason were proven relatively accurate. “Always has a hot and cold spell in him, but has never finished higher than ninth or lower than 18th on the PGA TOUR money list in the last five seasons.”
14 Jason Day (10; 16) Won the WGC-Accenture Match Play and enjoyed several high finishes, but once again struggled with injuries. He’s a dangerous play in season-long formats next season.
15 Bill Haas (16; 26) Another steady yet unspectacular season. He seems overdue for making some noise in a major, though he did hold the 18-hole lead at Augusta National before fading.
16 Webb Simpson (25; 17) Struggled with consistency but posted enough high finishes, including an early win, to warrant his preseason standing.
17 Zach Johnson (18; 19) While the data suggested moving him inside the top 10, a slight fade was proven correct.
18 Jim Furyk (4; 3) Reminded me of Steve Stricker in 2013 with all of his runner-up finishes (three). Remains winless since 2010.
19 Nick Watney (105; 106) Ranked inside the top 27 on each of the last five money lists before 2013-14. All good things must come to an end.
20 Rickie Fowler (9; 8) While he didn’t win, he really turned a corner in 2013-14 and his arrow remains pointed in the upward direction. Factored in all of the majors.
21 Patrick Reed (21; 14) I dare you to find someone else that had him ranked this high!
22 Dustin Johnson (30; 12) Blew his chance at a FedExCup run.
23 Graham DeLaet (37; 30) Had him on the very short list of players destined for a breakthrough win in 2013-14 and missed. Never put together a good enough putting week when the ball-striking was clicking.
24 Steve Stricker (116; 89) His semi-retired schedule was bound to catch up with him at some point and 2013-14 was the year. Lesson learned.
25 Sergio Garcia (13; 5) Big year for the Spaniard, but couldn’t cap it off with a win.
26 Luke Donald (89; 72) He’s a guy that’s really going to have to pick up the pieces in the offseason. Finished runner-up at Harbour Town but did nothing after that and was passed over for a Ryder Cup captain’s pick.
27 Ryan Moore (39; 21) Pretty happy with how that one turned out, as it looked on the surface to be a bit of a reach. Finished with a whimper, but had plenty of value through the year.
28 Charl Schwartzel (43; 44) He’s a risky play in season-long formats due to a light schedule. To really pay off, he needs to win a tournament and he didn’t in 2013-14.
29 Harris English (32; 23) Kind of nailed it, although two months into the season it looked like I had underestimated him.
30 Graeme McDowell (56; 41) Having a baby during the FEDEXCUP Playoffs proved costly in his final standing. While everyone is happy for G-Mac, it brings to light that childbirth is one of those things that is nearly impossible to account for when compiling preseason rankings.
31 Jonas Blixt (102; 81) I felt brilliant when he tied for second at the Masters, but rather dumb shortly thereafter.
32 Lee Westwood (107; 85) Edged out Luke Donald for the final Ryder Cup spot despite an equally bad year. Father time may have caught him.
33 Matt Every (45; 33) Gave us exactly what we were looking for with a win and several other nice finishes, while maintaining his reputation as a very streaky player.
34 Kyle Stanley (158; 148) Oops. He’s the highest guy on the list currently fighting for a 2014-15 PGA TOUR card at the Web.com Tour Finals.
35 David Lingmerth (134; 128) Should have stuck to my guns when I said, “I’m already regretting this, as he is a perFedExCupt candidate for the sophomore slump.”
36 Ian Poulter (78; 63) Expected the Ryder Cup to be the ultimate motivating factor for a big season, but it wasn’t.
37 John Peterson (179; 179) I still can’t believe this one. He’ll get another chance next year, as he’s already locked up a card via the Web.com Tour Finals.
38 Bubba Watson (5; 2) Proved that 2013 was nothing more than a hangover after winning his first major. Good lesson for a guy like Justin Rose next season.
39 Kevin Chappell (55; 80) Another solid season, but couldn’t bag the first win.
40 Roberto Castro (135; 135) Experienced a pretty major falloff in ball-striking this season, but looks to be in the hunt for a card via the Web.com Tour Finals.
41 Rory Sabbatini (108; 96) Had three top 10s by the first week of May and was inside the top 60 before struggling late.
42 Bo Van Pelt (81; 98) This is a bit smoke and mirrors, as he really had to rally late just to make the Playoffs. It appears his window has closed in terms of being anything more than an average player.
43 Chris Kirk (2; 6) Took the next step in his career in a big way, scoring a pair of victories and a solo second.
44 Brendon de Jonge (91; 87) A nice Presidents Cup performance led to an inflation in his value.
45 Scott Piercy (166; 155) All bets were off when the injury bug bit him midseason.
46 Morgan Hoffmann (26; 64) Barely snuck into the Playoffs in the 124th spot and scored both of his top 10s in the final four events.
47 Scott Stallings (84; 75) It’s hard to win a tournament and finish 84th in the FedExCup standings. That’s how badly the rest of his year sucked.
48 John Huh (96; 99) Did enough to easily retain his PGA TOUR card, but was never a real factor in 2013-14.
49 Jason Kokrak (73; 86) Might have fulfilled his projection had it not been for an injury that cost him some starts.
50 Marc Leishman (58; 32) Had a nice run in the middle of the summer and largely met expectations.
51 Martin Kaymer (16; 10) After finishing 94th on the 2013 money list, slotting him 51st felt a bit ambitious. With wins at THE PLAYERS and U.S. Open, he rewarded the gamers that found the price right in full-season formats.
52 Louis Oosthuizen (124; 101) Much like 2013, he battled some nagging injuries and failed to look like the player that won the 2010 Open Championship at St. Andrews.
53 Jimmy Walker (7; 4) I liked Jimmy, but I should have loved him.
54 Gary Woodland (22; 29) Admittedly, I’m slow to jump on the bomber’s bandwagon and it cost me a bit this season.
55 Ernie Els (41; 55) He saved his season with a T7 at the PGA Championship and continued to play well until he was eliminated at Cherry Hills.
56 Hideki Matsuyama (28; 27) By winning the Memorial, at minimum he met anyone’s high expectations in 2013-14 and likely exceeded them.
57 Bud Cauley (143; 129) Really felt like he was due for a bounce back in 2013-14 and it didn’t happen.
58 D.A. Points (173; 165) The numbers speak for themselves. Though he finished inside the top 70 on the money list in four of the last five years leading up to 2013-14, he failed miserably in his effort to make it five out of six.
59 Richard H. Lee (138; 131) Looked to be on a steady progression forward in his career, but instead took a step back down to the Web.com Tour Finals.
60 Aaron Baddeley (114; 102) He finished inside the top 125, which is really about all that can be said.
61 Charles Howell III (34; 45) Typical Chucky. Made plenty of cuts. Shot some low rounds early in tournaments. Rarely made his way on the television.
62 Charley Hoffman (53; 46) Was on pace for a top-30 season but faded late in the year. Proved his worth once again.
63 Ben Martin (76; 70) As expected, his second attempt at the PGA TOUR went much better than his first. As he grows more comfortable, expect him to pop off a win soon.
64 Robert Garrigus (99; 94) Took a step back by his standards. Could be a decent value for salary cap gamers in 2014-15 because of that.
65 Kevin Streelman (44; 40) I’ll be the first to admit that I didn’t see him answering his breakthrough win in 2013 with another one this season, but that’s what one really hot back nine at the right time can do for a guy.
66 Martin Laird (127; 138) Celebrated the birth of his first child early in 2014 and it had an impact on his returns on the course.
67 Chris Stroud (47; 53) Continues to knock on the door for his first win.
68 Brian Davis (110; 110) While he normally goes about his work in a boring fashion, he failed to reach his modest standard of recent years.
69 John Rollins (164; 172) This one came from out of nowhere. He had finished between 59th and 76th on the money list in each of the previous four years. He was so far from the norm that it raises an antenna and makes one wonder if there was an injury or off-the-course issue in play that is not known to the public.
70 Ryan Palmer (14; 24) Secured two runner-up finishes early in the season and scored a pair of top 10s down the stretch in the FedExCup Playoffs.
71 Jeff Overton (92; 93) While he made his last seven cuts of the year, none cracked the top 30. Did most of his heavy lifting early and battled a wrist injury for quite a bit of 2014.
72 David Hearn (74; 92) Becoming very much a known commodity on the PGA TOUR. Still looking for a breakthrough win.
73 Chesson Hadley (49; 58) The last rookie standing in the FedExCup Playoffs, he made it all the way to the BMW Championship.
74 Michael Thompson (117; 103) We expected a bit of a fall from his 52nd spot in the 2013 money list, but not quite this far of a drop.
75 Cameron Tringale (20; 37) The only thing left for him to prove is that he can win on the PGA TOUR. Could play a tougher schedule next season since he made it all the way to East Lake in 2013-14.
76 Ben Crane (60; 67) Imagine if he didn’t steal a win.
77 Tim Clark (54; 42) Solid position on the money list but still fights the injury bug.
78 Matt Jones (67; 47) Picked up his first win at the Shell Houston Open but really struggled to back that up.
79 Kevin Stadler (38; 36) Scored his first and long-awaited PGA TOUR win at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and nearly parlayed that into a berth in the TOUR Championship.
80 Bryce Molder (109; 113) Rather than bounce back in 2013-14, he continued his slide down the money list.
81 Mark Wilson (183; 192) Didn’t get off to a good start and never recovered. Ouch.
82 Jamie Lovemark (172; 168) Once possessed enormous talent but he’s never come close to making good on that promise.
83 Peter Hanson (161; 154) One of several Europeans of late that probably wishes he would have never committed to a PGA TOUR schedule.
84 Brendan Steele (79; 78) It’s taken some time to figure him out, but this slot is becoming his normal resting place. Note the comment from the preview, “Barring a win, this seems to be a stable range.”
85 Brendon Todd (27; 18) Considering that he finished 140th on the 2013 money list, this seemed to be an optimistic prognosis. As it would turn out, he nearly made the Ryder Cup team.
86 Seung-yul Noh (35; 39) As vastly different as his first two PGA TOUR seasons turned out, this spot always felt like a bit of a hedge.
87 Carl Pettersson (63; 79) Always hard to peg due to wild swings on the money list. I would deem this an acceptable shot in the dark.
88 Pat Perez (98; 82) Slotted into his career range perfectly. Counting 2013-14, his last five years on the money list have ranged from 73rd to 101st. This is who he is.
89 Padraig Harrington (188; 187) The bottom finally fell out.
90 Luke Guthrie (106; 111) The returns of his first two seasons remind me of Chris Stroud. He doesn’t seem to be in a hurry to become an elite player but his slowly building a foundation for a long career.
91 Daniel Summerhays (57; 69) Steady player that will be a nice member of a fantasy team the year he finally scores a win.
92 John Merrick (133; 144) Comments were accurate in the preseason. “Finally got a win in 2013, but made little noise after his triumph. Expect a quiet 2013-14.”
93 Thorbjorn Olesen (175; 167) Wow.
94 David Lynn (191; 184) Never seemed fully committed to the PGA TOUR, even when he enjoyed a nice 2013.
95 Russell Henley (19; 31) The sophomore slump didn’t happen. It’s time to trust the streaky putter.
96 John Senden (23; 25) So this is what happens when the Aussie figures out how to putt.
97 Boo Weekley (111; 112) Perhaps he figured out that he made enough money to fish and hunt for the rest of the season and turned his attention in that direction.
98 Freddie Jacobson (66; 48) Didn’t let entering a season in the midst of a minor slump prevent him from ending the year where he has traditionally become accustomed to sitting.
99 Angel Cabrera (50; 50) I’m struggling to come up with a player that is more of a flat-out guess than Cabrera. The win at The Greenbrier Classic was a shock when one considers that it wasn’t a major.
100 Sang-moon Bae (122; 124) Since his 2013 win at the HP Byron Nelson, he’s been a relative non-factor.
101 K.J. Choi (69; 59) Continues to battle for solid finishes throughout the season despite struggling to remain long enough off the tee.
102 Charlie Wi (149; 161) Failed to recognize the warning sign of his 121st place on the 2013 money list. Supported a bounce back rather than a continued fade.
103 Mark Anderson (212; 199) The second look at the PGA TOUR course rota was not a charm for the South Carolina Gamecock. Called it quits after the Nelson when an injury suffered during a fall off a ladder got the better of him.
104 Patrick Cantlay (217; 212) Grades out as an incomplete due to being out with a back injury for most of the season.
105 Josh Teater (148; 164) Fell 99 spots in the money list from 2013 to 2013-14. Hard to see a drop that big on the horizon until it’s too late.
106 David Toms (118; 118) Continues to squeak his way inside the top 125 on the FedExCup and money lists.
107 Tommy Gainey (156; 147) The coach may have turned back into a pumpkin.
108 Stewart Cink (80; 104) Status was in question for the first time since winning the 2009 Open Championship and he responded.
109 Nicolas Colsaerts (196; 198) The fourth Euro on the list (Hanson, Lynn and Olesen) that really crashed and burned on TOUR this season. Goes to show that for every Kaymer or Stenson, there is a disaster out there to be averted.
110 Sean O’Hair (160; 156) I’m writing him off until he proves otherwise.
111 J.J. Henry (128; 143) Didn’t have to play well since his card wasn’t on the line due to the win in Reno a year ago. Perhaps he’ll rebound in 2014-15.
112 Martin Flores (112; 95) Because it seemed so obvious!
113 Geoff Ogilvy (29; 54) Had the Aussie just about pegged before he decided to win the Barracuda Championship and tie for second at TPC Boston.
114 William McGirt (61; 84) Two of his four top 10s came very late in the season (Wyndham and Barclays) to make this projection look a little worse than it almost was.
115 Ken Duke (157; 150) He metaphorically took the year off to celebrate his 2013 win at the Travelers Championship. Fortunately, we expected a hangover. Just not one this bad.
116 Lucas Glover (185; 182) Striking the ball very similar to his 2009 season when he won the U.S. Open, but he's putting like a 14-handicapper.
117 Nicholas Thompson (126; 125) Barely retained his PGA TOUR card, which is exactly what we anticipated
118 Brian Harman (36; 34) Swing and a miss. Harman broke through at the John Deere Classic but failed to score a top 25 thereafter.
119 Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano (82; 105) What do you know? A Euro player who split time between tours that kept his card!
120 George McNeill (46; 43) Who could forget the final-round 61 and subsequent runner-up finish at The Greenbrier Classic on the same day his sister died?
121 Scott Langley (77; 90) Struggles with length off the tee, but has played very well on short and tight courses.
122 Ted Potter Jr. (154; 160) Didn’t score a top 10 all season and could only tie for 26th at the Greenbrier, where he won in 2012 and shared sixth in 2013.
123 Brian Gay (140; 136) His only top 10 came in the 2013 portion of the schedule.
124 Johnson Wagner (150; 158) Held on to the final spot in the 126-150 category and is trying to earn his card back via the Web.com Tour Finals.
125 Camilo Villegas (48; 62) Still not the star he was a few years ago, but he’s back to being a solid PGA TOUR player again.
There are several lessons I’ve learned through this process that will impact my 2014-15 projections. European Tour players attempting to make the jump across the pond to the PGA TOUR are not a safe investment. The examples are documented above. Colsaerts and Hanson were on the verge of being world-class players before messing around in the U.S. the last two years.
While it’s often wise to expect a player to return to a normal level of output after a particularly good or bad season, that shouldn’t be the case with a player older than 35 or 40 coming off a poor season. There are a million reasons why that could be the case, but I have to think it has to do with their stage of life. They are likely financially set for life. They have kids getting older and playing youth sports. Add to the list as you will.
There are very few sure things when it comes to rookies and Web.com Tour grads. Hadley and Martin did a nice job of meeting expectations, but few others did.
I look forward to releasing my 2014-15 preseason top 125 in the near future!
