Projected Meta-Rankings

This column provides 'meta-rankings' for the top-200 players in 9-cat and 8-cat leagues, based upon the combined league-wide statistical projections of three prominent and well-regarded NBA sites. If you're playing fantasy basketball, you're on at least one of these sites on a daily basis.

Rotoworld is one of them, and our full projections are available in the NBA Draft Guide. Weekly rankings and projections will be available imminently in the Season Pass! The other two sites I'm using for bedrock data are ESPN.com and the ever-impressive Basketball Monster. It's expected that many owners will vehemently disagree with some of these projections-based rankings, in which case I encourage you to check out the source materials.

Editor's Note: Rotoworld's partner FanDuel is hosting a one-day $200,000 Fantasy Basketball league for October 29th's games. It's $25 to join and first prize is $20,000. Starts at 7pm ET on October 29th. Here's the FanDuel link.

Methodology

1) Aggregate league-wide player projections.

2) Assign each player a 'value' in 9-cat and 8-cat leagues by using population means, standard deviations and z-scores (I weighted both FG% and FT% by attempts...email me if you want to know more about that).

3) Eliminate any players who fell below the top-200 for each format, then re-calculate means, standard deviations and z-scores to determine new top-200 values.

4) Weight these z-score-based values by each player's projected number of games played (compared to the population mean, not an 82-game season).

5) For each individual set of projections, rank players based upon these new, weighted top-200 values for 9-cat and 8-cat leagues.

6) Merge these 9-cat and 8-cat rankings and average each player's ranking to determine a 'Meta-Rank.'

7) Talk a walk to remind myself what fresh air feels like.

8) Share the results! (Of the analysis, not the walk.)

In case it's not perfectly clear, these aren't my personal rankings. They're not even the official rankings of the sites whose projections I'm analyzing, though any list of projected stats betrays the expectations and biases of the person/people compiling the numbers. By combining multiple such projections, my goal is to arrive at as objective a ranking as I can possibly come up with. *A spreadsheet quirk initially had "Wes Matthews" showing up as "Wes Johnson," thanks to Richard Cafarelli for quickly pointing that out to me! It's now updated with the correct name. (Wes Johnson came out ranked 143 in 9-cat and 157 in 8-cat.)

Two more notes: Anyone heading into a draft should also check out Aaron Bruski's top-150 list, as well as Mike Gallagher's columns about 'Abusing the Default Rankings' for ESPN or Yahoo!. They're both terrific resources to have you at the top of your game on draft day.

*Some players appeared on one or two projected top-200 lists but not all three, which is why there are more than 200 players for both formats.

How you use this is completely up to you. Jeremy Lin looks like an early-mid round value according to these aggregated projections, but he's typically available toward the latter half of the middle rounds. Should you reach for him in the 60-70 range, or hope that he falls to you even later? Such decisions can only be made on a case-by-case basis, after careful consideration of your league's depth, your team's personnel, your strategy, which weeks are included in your league's playoffs, and much more.

Dwight Howard ranks very low but if you're willing to punt FT% he soars into the top-20 -- such is the power of his league-worst weighted FT%, which is the heaviest anchor of any player in any category. There's also a bias toward established players, it seems, as many fading veterans are given lenient projections while many young guys are short-shrifted. This is a tool to help you draft the best team possible in roto and H2H leagues, not a 1-2-3 cheat-sheet that will tell you how to pick your team.

For a ton of other draft tips, strategies and insights, dig through the archive of my 'Numbers Game' columns. And follow me on Twitter for season-long player updates, stats and fantasy advice.

Enjoy, and good luck this season. We're only a few days away!

Manu Ginobili 109.0 Mason Plumlee 110.5 Andre Iguodala 115.0 Andre Iguodala 111.7 Avery Bradley 115.3 Josh Smith 112.0 Kelly Olynyk 115.3 Matt Barnes 112.0 Zach Randolph 116.0 Jordan Hill 113.0 Eric Gordon 116.3 Avery Bradley 114.0 Mason Plumlee 120.5 P.J. Tucker 120.0 Danilo Gallinari 122.7 Patrick Patterson 120.5 Channing Frye 123.3 Manu Ginobili 122.0 Jodie Meeks 124.7 Courtney Lee 124.0 Matt Barnes 124.7 Henry Sims 124.3 Jordan Hill 126.7 Terrence Ross 124.3 Brandan Wright 129.3 Wilson Chandler 126.7 C.J. Miles 129.7 Anderson Varejao 127.0 Carlos Boozer 130.3 C.J. Miles 127.3 Ersan Ilyasova 130.7 Gerald Green 127.3 Trey Burke 130.7 Kelly Olynyk 128.3 Andrea Bargnani 131.3 Corey Brewer 129.0 Gerald Green 131.7 Mike Dunleavy 131.5 Nene Hilario 133.3 Andrea Bargnani 131.7 Spencer Hawes 134.3 Jabari Parker 134.0 Steve Nash 137.3 Brandon Knight 134.7 Wilson Chandler 137.3 Eric Gordon 134.7 Mirza Teletovic 137.5 Jeremy Lamb 135.0 P.J. Tucker 138.5 Vince Carter 135.3 Patrick Patterson 140.5 Spencer Hawes 136.0 Gorgui Dieng 141.7 Marcus Thornton 136.5 Taj Gibson 141.7 Gorgui Dieng 137.7 JaVale McGee 142.3 Nick Young 138.0 Henry Sims 142.7 Zach Randolph 139.0 Terrence Ross 143.0 Giannis Antetokounmpo 139.7 Anderson Varejao 143.3 Anthony Morrow 140.0 Andrew Wiggins 145.3 Taj Gibson 140.3 Rodney Stuckey 145.3 JaVale McGee 140.7 Lou Williams 146.0 Tim Hardaway Jr. 141.0 Alan Anderson 147.0 C.J. Watson 141.5 Nick Young 147.0 Kyle O'Quinn 141.7 Tiago Splitter 147.5 Khris Middleton 142.0 Marcus Smart 147.7 Kevin Garnett 144.0 Timofey Mozgov 149.3 Samuel Dalembert 145.0 Mike Dunleavy 150.5 Lou Williams 146.0 Corey Brewer 151.7 Trey Burke 146.3 D.J. Augustin 152.0 Marvin Williams 149.0 Kyle O'Quinn 152.0 Shawn Marion 149.3 Ray Allen 153.0 D.J. Augustin 150.0 Vince Carter 153.0 Marco Belinelli 150.0 Jarrett Jack 153.3 Timofey Mozgov 151.0 K.J. McDaniels 153.7 Carlos Boozer 151.3 Samuel Dalembert 153.7 Thabo Sefolosha 153.0 Amare Stoudemire 155.0 Chris Andersen 155.0 Tony Allen 155.3 Rudy Gobert 155.0 John Henson 156.0 James Johnson 156.0 Miles Plumlee 156.3 Nene Hilario 156.3 Khris Middleton 157.0 Andrei Kirilenko 157.0 Marcus Thornton 158.0 Randy Foye 157.0 Courtney Lee 158.5 Tiago Splitter 157.0 James Johnson 158.7 Amare Stoudemire 157.5 Enes Kanter 159.0 Tony Allen 157.7 Kevin Garnett 159.0 Iman Shumpert 159.0 Andrei Kirilenko 160.0 John Henson 159.0 Jeremy Lamb 160.0 Jonas Jerebko 159.0 Anthony Bennett 162.0 Steve Nash 159.0 Anthony Morrow 162.5 Miles Plumlee 159.3 C.J. Watson 164.0 Martell Webster 161.0 Elfrid Payton 164.3 Andrew Wiggins 161.3 Jameer Nelson 164.7 K.J. McDaniels 161.3 Kendall Marshall 165.0 Marcus Morris 162.0 Martell Webster 165.0 Hollis Thompson 162.5 Rudy Gobert 166.0 Jarrett Jack 162.7 Marco Belinelli 168.0 Brandon Bass 167.3 Randy Foye 168.5 Rodney Stuckey 168.3 Shawn Marion 168.7 Marcus Smart 169.0 Jordan Farmar 169.5 Shaun Livingston 169.0 Alec Burks 170.5 Danny Granger 170.0 Danny Granger 171.0 Gerald Wallace 170.0 Marvin Williams 171.0 Harrison Barnes 172.0 Iman Shumpert 172.5 Gerald Henderson 173.0 Devin Harris 173.0 Dwight Howard 173.3 Dion Waiters 173.7 Devin Harris 173.5 Thabo Sefolosha 174.0 Arnett Moultrie 174.0 Tim Hardaway Jr. 174.0 Jameer Nelson 174.0 Marcus Morris 176.0 Enes Kanter 175.0 Shaun Livingston 177.3 Alan Anderson 178.0 J.J. Hickson 177.5 Boris Diaw 181.0 Gerald Henderson 178.3 Chris Kaman 181.0 Gerald Wallace 179.0 J.J. Hickson 182.0 Chris Andersen 180.0 Jordan Farmar 182.0 Mo Williams 180.0 Alec Burks 182.5 Tony Wroten 180.3 Cody Zeller 184.0 Hollis Thompson 180.5 Kirk Hinrich 184.0 Chris Kaman 181.0 Luis Scola 185.0 Jonas Jerebko 182.0 Shabazz Napier 186.0 Omer Asik 182.3 Dion Waiters 187.3 O.J. Mayo 184.0 Omer Asik 187.7 Arnett Moultrie 185.0 O.J. Mayo 188.0 Boris Diaw 185.3 Mo Williams 188.7 Greivis Vasquez 186.0 Greivis Vasquez 189.3 Shabazz Napier 186.0 Elfrid Payton 189.7 Brandon Bass 186.7 Anthony Bennett 190.0 Kirk Hinrich 189.0 Evan Fournier 191.0 Evan Turner 189.5 Carl Landry 192.0 Cody Zeller 191.0 Evan Turner 192.0 Harrison Barnes 191.0 Rodney Hood 192.0 Luis Scola 193.0 Ramon Sessions 194.0 Michael Kidd-Gilchrist 193.0 Norris Cole 195.0 Ramon Sessions 194.0 Tyler Zeller 195.0 Evan Fournier 195.0 Marreese Speights 196.0 Dante Exum, Uta SG 196.0 Michael Kidd-Gilchrist 196.0 Rodney Hood 196.0 Jordan Crawford 197.0 Carl Landry 197.0 Nik Stauskas 197.0 Norris Cole 197.0 Kendall Marshall 198.0 Marreese Speights 198.0 Solomon Hill 198.0 Jordan Crawford 199.0 Dante Exum, Uta SG 199.0 Solomon Hill 199.0 Tony Wroten 199.7 Tyler Zeller 199.0 Nik Stauskas 200.0

*Some players appeared on one or two projected top-200 lists but not all three, which is why there are more than 200 players for both formats.

How you use this is completely up to you. Jeremy Lin looks like an early-mid round value according to these aggregated projections, but he's typically available toward the latter half of the middle rounds. Should you reach for him in the 60-70 range, or hope that he falls to you even later? Such decisions can only be made on a case-by-case basis, after careful consideration of your league's depth, your team's personnel, your strategy, which weeks are included in your league's playoffs, and much more. There's also a bias toward established players, it seems, as many fading veterans are given lenient projections while many young guys are short-shrifted. This is a tool to help you draft the best team possible, not a 1-2-3 cheat-sheet that will tell you how to pick your team.

For a ton of other draft tips, strategies and insights, dig through the archive of my 'Numbers Game' columns. And follow me on Twitter for season-long player updates, stats and fantasy advice.

While spending the past few days coaxing Excel spreadsheets into submission, some statistical glitches came to my attention. For instance, the world-wide leader in sports hasn't provided stat projections for Draymond Green, Rudy Gobert, Solomon Hill, P.J. Tucker, Bojan Bogdanovic, Nikola Mirotic or Doug McDermott. They also have a few guys like Al Harrington listed at 12.3 points, 1.4 triples, 5.4 rebounds, 1.3 assists and 0.8 steals in 24 minutes per game, even though he's currently playing in China. I deleted him from the analysis, along with some other oddballs (Baron Davis, Jason Kidd, Lester Hudson, Delonte West, etc.). In other words, I did my best to smooth the rough edges without altering the fundamental picture that arose from the data.

Enjoy, and good luck this season. We're only a few days away!