Premier League 2016-17 preview, predictions: No. 9, Stoke City
With the 2016-17 Premier League season kicking off this weekend, FC Yahoo is rolling out previews for all 20 teams. We’ll be working our way up from the bottom of our predicted table, all the way to the champions.
Last season: The third chapter of Mark Hughes’ Stoke overhaul yielded mixed results. At their best, the Potters played radiant attacking soccer, but at their worst, they were ineffective and let their frustration show. They finished 9th, but well off the pace of the top eight.
What’s changed: After dropping nearly £50 million on new signings last year, and bringing in a few more regular starters on frees, Stoke has been quiet this summer, perhaps by necessity. The big splash was Welsh midfield maestro Joe Allen, who heads to the Britannia from Liverpool for £13 million. The only other signing has been 19-year-old Egyptian winger Ramadan Sobhi.
FC YAHOO TAKE
Shahan Ahmed: In a season when seemingly every team lost its nerves, Hughes and Stoke City remained steady and steadfast. In truth, Stoke inflicted a great deal of the uncertainty that brought the title race to life, as the Potters beat Manchester United, Manchester City, Chelsea and West Ham, and claimed points off Arsenal, Tottenham and Leicester City during the 2015-16 campaign. Considering the quality in the squad, Stoke City has room for improvement. Also, Hughes, who is Welsh, has added Allen over the summer, and how can adding the Welsh Pirlo — or Welsh Xavi for the Spanish speaking crowd — possibly not improve Stoke City?
Henry Bushnell: Let’s get nerdy and discuss expected goals. The short explanation is that analysts have come up with various methods by which to assign a decimal value to a shot based on location, shot type, assisting pass type, and other variables. It’s very imperfect, but a pretty good measure of whether a team has been overachieving or underachieving. Now let’s discuss Stoke, who, based on one model, had the fourth worst expected goal differential in the Premier League last year.
And you don’t even need expected goals to tell you the Potters overachieved. Just look at that minus-14 actual goal differential, which was the second worst mark for a team finishing ninth or higher in the history of the Premier League. That’s not to say last year was a total ruse, but 2015-16 Stoke was not a top-10 team, and don’t expect this year’s edition to be either.
Bookmakers say: Point total over/under: 45.5 | Title odds: 500/1 | Relegation odds: 9/1
FC YAHOO PREDICTIONS
Shahan Ahmed: 9 | Ryan Bailey: 9 | Alex Baker: 11 | Henry Bushnell: 12 | Joey Gulino: 10 | Joe Lago: 11 | Leander Schaerlaeckens: 11 | Average: 10.4 (9th)
More Previews
Arsenal | Bournemouth | Burnley | Chelsea | Crystal Palace | Everton | Hull City | Leicester City | Liverpool | Manchester City | Manchester United | Middlesbrough | Southampton | Stoke City | Sunderland | Swansea City | Tottenham | Watford | West Brom | West Ham
