Positional Risers: PF
It’s time for the big boys.
In the latest edition of Positional Risers, we’re examining four very different power forwards, in descending order of ADP, and what each stands to bring to the table next season for their owners. Both Blake Griffin’s evolution into a complete NBA player and Pau Gasol’s surprising rebirth in The Windy City make those two slam dunks - big leap for Blake, Statue of Liberty for Pau - to make this list.
The other two? A couple of youngsters looking to leave their marks in a big way with rebuilding franchises, and both proved capable of delivering messages that were doubted prior to the season.
Here are links to all of the positional risers:
Blake Griffin, PF/C Los Angeles Clippers
2014 ADP: 14.6 overall, Round 2.0
Key Stats: 21.9 points, 7.6 rebounds, 5.3 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.5 blocks, 50.2% shooting, 72.7% FT shooting.
While there’s no doubting that Blake Griffin’s regular season numbers - especially his career-high 5.3 assists - put him in the upper echelon of frontline fantasy stars, the player Griffin proved to be during the Clippers’ shortened postseason run should have fantasy owners absolutely salivating over this guy as a first-round pick next season. Taking his game to an entirely new and unforeseen level, Griffin showed the video game comparisons to be true in averaging an other-worldly 25.5 points, 12.7 rebounds, 6.1 assists, 1.0 blocks and 1.0 steals on 51.1% shooting during the playoffs.
With the Clippers in a position to do nothing of real import in terms of changing this team’s ceiling, Chris Paul, Doc Rivers and Co. have no choice but to hand this team over to Griffin, a process that began during the 2014-15 season. While I’ll still take CP3 as my point guard any and every day of the week, you can no longer question or debate who the Clippers’ best player is - that’s Griffin, and he’s not even in his prime yet.
Considering how the season went, it’s laughable to think that this is the player who was drafted behind Kevin Love, LaMarcus Aldridge, Al Jefferson and Serge Ibaka with regularity. Griffin should be the second power forward off the board in drafts next season behind Anthony Davis, and the conversation shouldn’t bleed into debate when it comes to that point.
Nerlens Noel, PF/C Philadelphia 76ers
2014 ADP: 56.2 overall, Round 5.5
Key Stats: 9.9 points, 8.1 rebounds, 1.8 steals, 1.9 blocks, 46.2% shooting
In a tale of two seasons for the Philadelphia 76ers’ prized building block, Nerlens Noel offered tantalizing potential of the defensive game-changer he can be going forward. After averaging 2.1 steals and 2.3 blocks over his final 26 games after the All-Star break, Noel’s Rookie of the Year push might have come up short, but his climb up draft boards has long since started prior to his sophomore campaign beginning.
Although Noel’s first half stats are nothing to overlook: 8.2 points, 7.2 rebounds, 1.6 steals, 1.7 blocks and 44.5% shooting over his first 49 games, his performance after the All-Star break transcended to a new level: 13.1 points, 10.0 rebounds, 2.1 steals and 2.3 blocks on 48.7% from the floor. Noel’s shot attempts also rose from 7.8 to 10.4, and he also got to the free throw line twice as often (4.5 vs. 2.3) in the unofficial second half of the season. It’s a difficult task for a rookie to take on an increased role as the season moves forward - and fatigue from an 82-game grind wears on - and it’s even more impressive when that player is able to improve his performance in the process. That’s exactly what Noel did.
Considering names like Thaddeus Young, Kenneth Faried and Chandler Parsons were being selected ahead of him (just from those eligible at his own position), it’s fair to state that Noel, despite playing for a woeful Philadelphia 76ers team, won’t be overlooked by anyone heading into next season. He showed impressive durability by playing 75 of 82 games after sitting out a season following a torn ACL, and at just 21 years old, Noel’s got a bright future as a defensive anchor of successful fantasy basketball teams.
Pau Gasol, PF/C Chicago Bulls
2014 ADP: 58.7 overall, Round 5.8
Key Stats: 18.5 points, 11.8 rebounds, 1.9 blocks, 49.4% shooting, 80.3% FT shooting
Pau Gasol was the best bargain of the 2014 free-agent bidding process, and those who suggested that he was washed up while with the Los Angeles Lakers should be forced to send a donation to the charities of Gasol’s choosing. Coming off of a monster inaugural season with the Chicago Bulls, Gasol is poised to once again serve a sizable role for a team that could have a different look down low next season. With Joakim Noah’s health an ongoing question mark, Taj Gibson a potential trade candidate and the Bulls needing to get creative in order to keep Jimmy Butler in the fold, Gasol’s going to play major minutes even if (when) Tom Thibodeau is eventually dismissed as head coach.
Before the season began, Gasol took a dip in the hot tub time machine and threw it in reverse for thirst. After failing to average double-digit rebounds in a season since 2011-12, Gasol roared back when he saw red for the first time as a member of the Chicago Bulls. For someone who was drafted behind Ryan Anderson and one spot after David Lee, that’s a pretty good return on investment for any owner who was smart enough to nab Gasol in his new home. Next year, there will be no such thing as a discount.
Gasol is a lock to be drafted inside the top four rounds, and that’s a premium price to pay for any player. Remember, production is all relative to value when it comes to fantasy basketball, so this may be one riser owners look to avoid if the price point continues to inflate.
Tobias Harris, F Orlando Magic
2014 ADP: 94.6 overall, Round 8.9
Key Stats: 17.1 points, 6.3 rebounds, 1.0 steals, 1.3 triples, 46.6% shooting
Tobias Harris had no business being drafted after guys like David West (66.1), Larry Sanders (80.1), Luol Deng (85.1) or Paul Pierce (89.2), and depending on where Harris continues his NBA career next season his ADP could be the highest riser on this list. That’s not to suggest that he’ll be drafted ahead of the names that precede him here, but it is to illustrate that Harris will be elevated once he’s in the national spotlight on a more consistent basis. If Harris remains in Orlando, that won’t be the case. But a move to a desperate team like the New York Knicks or Los Angeles Lakers could change that in a hurry.
Harris had almost identical splits when it came to his pre-and-post All-Star break production, but one concern that comes with Harris is his health. He’s never been able to participate in a full 82-game season, and he has missed a combined 35 games over the last two seasons. While it’s not an insurmountable number by any means or something that dents his value too heavily, it’s definitely something to consider as other options are available. If Harris is able to block more shots, he’d emerge as a member of the 1-1-1 club (one three, one steal, one block per game), and that would make him a much more attractive asset heading into next season.
Harris is going to have to be in a position and on a team that allows him to be a featured member of the offense in order to fully flourish and reach his potential for fantasy owners, and with both Nikola Vucevic and Victor Oladipo eating in Orlando, it’s hard to see that happening with the Magic.
Watch Harris’ restricted free agency closely. If he signs elsewhere, Harris is going to be a guy I target aggressively and early for the 2015-16 campaign.
