Notre Dame, BYU have one avenue to make playoff: Finish undefeated

Go undefeated.

That's the short answer for how Notre Dame and/or BYU get into a New Year's Six bowl game. Other than that, well, let's say there are disadvantages to being an independent in the playoff era.

The possibility is raised because the Irish and Cougars are 3-0 together for the first time in 21 years. The prospect of either independent grabbing one of the 12 spots in the national semifinals or four other major bowls is more than a curiosity.

Jerry Palm Projection: Notre Dame to Sun Bowl

"It would be two fewer spots for those [Power 5] schools," CBSSports.com bracketologist Jerry Palm said, "and it seems it would come at the expense of the Big Ten, which has played so poorly outside the league that it will be difficult to earn an at-large spot."

Regardless of the Big Ten's issues, the playoff era was built by and for those Power 5 conferences. The champions of those leagues are guaranteed a spot somewhere in the New Year's Six participating bowls -- Rose, Sugar, Orange, Fiesta, Peach and Cotton. The Big Ten and Pac-12 (Rose), SEC and Big 12 (Sugar) and ACC (Orange) have contracted with those bowls for their champions in years when those games aren't designated national semifinals.

There is no limit to how many teams they can place in those 12 slots. Any intrusion by the independents in that territory would affect the big boys' prestige, finances and ... ego.

If independents are going going to cash in, they better hurry. There is a maximum of five open spots in the New Year's Six in 2014, three in 2015 and only one in 2016. In each season the best of the Group of Five conferences (MAC, Mountain West, American, Conference USA, Sun Belt) is guaranteed one spot.

The independents are guaranteed nothing unless they finish in the top four. Lose only once and the prospects likely fade significantly. Notre Dame finished the regular season undefeated two seasons ago, its fifth such season since 1953, before losing to Alabama in the BCS title game. BYU has two undefeated seasons -- 1979 and 1984.

Summation: Go undefeated, Irish and Cougars, or face the fiery damnation of one-loss purgatory. Also working against them: Notre Dame and BYU have to manufacture their schedules as opposed to playing in a conference. No undefeated power conference program finished out of the top four in the BCS era.

Based on the NCAA's latest ranking of cumulative opposition, the SEC has six of the top eight teams in schedule strength. Notre Dame is tied for 38th. BYU is 78th.

The Irish play three teams that are currently ranked (Stanford, Florida State, Southern California). Seven of their nine remaining opponents are in the top 30 in schedule strength. BYU plays no currently ranked teams.

"I don't consider either [team] all that likely [to get in], given their schedules," Palm said. "BYU doesn't play a strong enough one and ND plays too strong of one."

The only index that counts -- the selection committee poll -- doesn't debut for more than six weeks. With no limit on the Power 5, that's significant. The SEC occupies seven of the top 14 spots in this week's AP poll.

You may not like the trend, but you're certainly familiar with it. If the playoff started today, per the Power Poll, five of the New Year's Six bowls would be populated by SEC teams.

Independence is that kind of purgatory. Notre Dame was basically forced to get into a scheduling agreement with the ACC to even get its current limited access to the system. BYU reportedly has made attempts to connect with a conference, but remains committed to independence and in reality may be trapped there.

The Big 12 -- the most widely speculated landing spot in a power conference -- has shown little to no interest.

The independents are football's independent contractors limited by schedule and (lack of) affiliation. BYU, Army and Navy all have the same access to those top bowls, which is to say little. Top four gets them in the playoff. Other than that, each would be subject to the selection committee's choice.

Those three have finished in the top 25 of AP a combined 19 times since 1977, 17 of those by BYU.

Notre Dame has slightly better access. Its scheduling agreement with the ACC allows it access to the conference's bowls, including the Orange. The Irish can play in the Orange a maximum of twice during the 12-year term of the playoff, but it is not guaranteed even one appearance.

In that sense, the days of ND profiting in the postseason more than actual football are long gone.

The ACC controls the Orange selection opposite its champion. The team will be -- in general -- the highest-ranked from among a pool of teams from the SEC, Big Ten and Notre Dame. An ACC spokesman said that if Notre Dame finishes fifth this season -- outside the playoff -- it "most likely" will play in the Orange Bowl, barring any regular-season rematches.

The Irish could be ranked as low as seventh and still make the Orange Bowl if the fifth- and sixth-ranked teams are from the Pac-12 and Big 12.

But there's a long way to go and long odds to face, starting with going undefeated.

>> Want more CFB playoff? Palm's Bowl/Playoff projections

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