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AL fantasy season preview edition of Mostly MLB Notes

Yu Darvish is primed to win the Cy Young (Getty Images)
Yu Darvish is primed to win the Cy Young (Getty Images)

American League East

  1. Boston Red Sox

  2. Toronto Blue Jays (Wild Card)

  3. New York Yankees

  4. Baltimore Orioles

  5. Tampa Bay Rays

Comments/Fantasy Predictions: In a tough AL East, the Red Sox remain the class of the division…Andrew Benintendi goes .300-95-15-95-15 and wins Rookie of the Year, while Hanley Ramirez finishes as a top-seven fantasy first baseman, as a DH role keeps him healthy…Boston threatens to lead MLB in runs scored, benefitting all fantasy players who have a piece of this lineup, other than Pablo Sandoval owners of course…Chris Sale is a top-three fantasy starter, while David Price isn’t top-30 thanks to injury…Mookie Betts wins the MVP award…Jose Bautista greatly outperforms his ADP, and Devon Travis is more valuable than Troy Tulowitzki…Thanks to a new home park that’s boosted home runs by nine percent over the past three seasons (second in the AL only to Yankee Stadium), Kendrys Morales hits a career-high 35 homers (he hit 30 last year in Kansas City, which has suppressed HR by 20 percent over that span. Only AT&T Park has been more extreme over that stretch)…Francisco Liriano leads the staff in strikeouts and becomes one of the most popular adds in fantasy leagues during April.

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Gary Sanchez regresses as everyone expects but still finishes as the No. 1 fantasy catcher, while Greg Bird slugs 30+ homers…Matt Holliday proves to be a boring veteran who helps win fantasy titles, and a dominant back-end of their bullpen leads to the Yankees nearly winning the last wild card berth…Adam Jones remains his usual consistent self, and there isn’t a cheaper 25-homer source at middle infield in the AL than Jonathan SchoopKevin Gausman fails to live up to the hype thanks to the tough park and division, while Mark Trumbo loses 15 homers off last year’s total…Kevin Keirmaier makes his recent contract extension look like a steal, and Alex Cobb finishes as a top-35 starter (top-25 if he’s traded to the Cubs). Tampa Bay has a really strong staff, but its lineup prevents them from playing in October.

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Song of the Week: Spoon – “Hot Thoughts”

American League Central

  1. Cleveland Indians

  2. Detroit Tigers

  3. Kansas City Royals

  4. Minnesota Twins

  5. Chicago White Sox

Comments/Fantasy Predictions: Coming off a season in which they held a 3-1 lead in the World Series despite injuries to Carlos Carrasco, Michael Brantley, Danny Salazar and Yan Gomes, Cleveland is primed to make another deep run in the playoffs…Jose Ramirez hits .300 again, proving last year was no fluke, and Francisco Lindor finishes top-5 in WAR…Neither Cody Allen nor Andrew Miller reach 25 saves but both pitch extremely well, and only health prevents Carrasco from being a Cy Young contender...Justin Upton’s first half last year: .670 OPS, 31.5 K%, 77 wRC+. His second half: .916 OPS, 24.8 K%, 142 wRC+. Over all of last season, his first half wRC+ would’ve ranked as the seventh-worst in MLB, and his second-half wRC+ would’ve ranked third best among all hitters. That’s quite a contrast…Daniel Norris, whose 16.2 K-BB% and 10.5 SwStr% both would’ve ranked top-25 among starters had he qualified last season, is one of the best sleeper picks late in drafts.

Danny Duffy proves last year’s breakout was no fluke, finishing as a top-12 fantasy starter, but Jorge Soler continues to fail to live up to expectations…Matt Strahm eventually gets a chance in the rotation and immediately becomes the Royals’ second most valuable commodity on the staff…Eric Hosmer has his best season yet…Joe Mauer fails to reach double-digit homers, while Miguel Sano knocks out 30+…Byron Buxton, who’s still just 23 years old and posted a .344 wOBA and 114 wRC+ after the All-Star break last season, fully breaks out and goes 20/30 while playing terrific defense in center field…David Robertson is traded to the Nationals, where he becomes Washington’s closer, leaving the job in Chicago for Nate Jones. Both relievers are top-12 fantasy closers from that point forward…Jose Quintana’s value also sees a boost after he’s dealt to the National League, while Tim Anderson steals 35 bases…Carlos Rodon strikes out 220 batters and is drafted as a top-15 starting pitcher entering 2018.

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Longread of the Week: The Stoner Arms Dealers: How Two American Kids Became Big-Time Weapons Traders

American League West

  1. Houston Astros

  2. Texas Rangers (Wild Card)

  3. Seattle Mariners

  4. Los Angeles Angels

  5. Oakland A’s

Comments/Fantasy Predictions: The Astros score the most runs in major league baseball, although Alex Bregman doesn’t break out to the extent his owners hope…Dallas Keuchel bounces back, but it’s Lance McCullers who finishes with the most fantasy value on Houston’s staff…Ken Giles’ 19.9 SwStr% was the second highest in baseball last season, second only to his teammate Luke Gregerson (20.1%)…Houston wins the American League pennant…Go Astros, as I put my money where my mouth is…Rougned Odor is a top-three fantasy second baseman, finishing with more value than Robinson Cano, while Nomar Mazara is one of the bigger outfield bargains when he goes .275-75-25-75…The Rangers, Mariners and Angels’ battle for second place (and a possible wild card) will come down to the final weekend of the season…Yu Darvish wins the Cy Young award.

Nelson Cruz never hit more than 33 homers in a season until he hit 40 at age 33. He’ll club 40 for the fourth straight season in 2017…Edwin Diaz leads all closers in strikeouts, while James Paxton finishes with more fantasy value than Felix HernandezJarrod Dyson steals 60 bases…Matt Shoemaker is a top-45 starter, and Cam Bedrosian has a big season, as he enters 2018 as a consensus top-10 closer…C.J. Cron reaches 90 RBI…Sonny Gray’s spiral downward continues, while Sean Manea establishes himself as the clear ace of the staff…No one in Oakland’s bullpen reaches 15 saves, including Santiago Casilla, who reminds me a lot of former A’s prospect Jairo Garcia…After only five players reached 35 steals last season, Rajai Davis is one of four who reach 60 in 2017…Ryon Healy is a top-10 third baseman, finishing with more fantasy value than Alex Bregman.

In case you missed my National League preview, here it is.

MVP: Mookie Betts

Cy Young: Yu Darvish

Rookie of the Year: Andrew Benintendi

ALCS: Astros over Indians

NLCS: Dodgers over Cubs

World Series: Dodgers over Astros

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