Matchup: Texans @ Steelers
Monday Night Football
Houston @ Pittsburgh
Ben Roethlisberger's early-season hot stretch flamed out in last week's blowout loss to Cleveland. Credit goes to the Browns, who turned in their best defensive effort of the season. Mike Pettine's unit only blitzed Big Ben on 5-of-44 dropbacks, but still got pressure from its down linemen, gave up nothing downfield, and held Pittsburgh scoreless on three red-zone trips. Having allowed Eli Manning, E.J. Manuel, Tony Romo, and Andrew Luck to combine to complete 95-of-157 passes (60.5%) for 1,153 yards (7.34 YPA) and a 9:4 TD-to-INT ratio over their last four games, the Texans are a generally unimposing pass defense for fantasy matchup purposes. Luck scorched Houston for 370 yards and three TDs two Thursday nights ago. Expect a solid if unspectacular Monday nighter from Roethlisberger. He's a lower-end QB1. ... Big Ben's target distribution in Weeks 1-6: Antonio Brown 61; Markus Wheaton 39; Le'Veon Bell and Heath Miller 35; Justin Brown 21; Lance Moore 8; LeGarrette Blount and Dri Archer 5. ... Recent enemy No. 1 receiver stat lines against the Texans: 9-112-1 (James Jones); 5-107-1 (Victor Cruz); 4-30-1 (Sammy Watkins); 9-85-1 (Dez Bryant); 9-223-1 (T.Y. Hilton). Fire up Brown and watch him work. ... Although 4.40 speedster Wheaton is theoretically capable of breaking big plays, he's shown very little ability to do so in his sophomore season. Despite a season-high 12 targets in last week's loss to Cleveland, Wheaton managed 33 yards and remains scoreless on the season. He's averaging just over three catches for 35 yards per game over the last month. If Wheaton has his long-awaited breakout game on Monday Night Football, there will not have been any indications it was coming.
The Texans are 22nd in fantasy points allowed to tight ends, although they've permitted the sixth most receptions (33) to the position. 15th in tight end scoring on the season, Miller remains a low-ceiling TE1 option. ... Steelers slot man Moore played a season-high 46% of Pittsburgh's offensive snaps in Week 6. He's sharing third receiver duties with Brown (36%). ... The Texans have surrendered 683 yards and four touchdowns on 155 runs (4.41 YPC) to enemy tailbacks through six games. This is a favorable matchup for Le'Veon Bell, who has maintained a per-game average of nearly 133 total yards amid his five-game scoring drought. This is probably a good time to put in an offer to the Le'Veon owner in your league. Fantasy leaguers are (understandably) fickle about touchdown scoring, and Bell's perceived stock may have reached a low. In the fantasy playoffs (Weeks 14-16), Bell will face the Bengals, Falcons, and Chiefs. Those defenses rank 29th, 28th, and 23rd against the run, respectively. ... Just a breather back off the Steelers' bench, Blount has eight rushing attempts in back-to-back games but managed 3.50 YPC without a touchdown on them. He played 11 snaps in last week's loss to Cleveland, while Bell handled 65. Blount is just handcuff for Le'Veon owners.
Leading up to the Texans-Colts Week 6 Thursday nighter, I expressed some concern about Arian Foster's increasingly fragile body and how his balky hamstrings would hold up on a short week. Foster answered those question marks vehemently, dropping a 20-109-2 rushing number on Indianapolis, with 3-32 in the passing game. When healthy, Foster remains a man amongst boys in the open field with an elite combination of vision, patience, and deceptive quickness. He's regained top-five RB1 value entering Monday night's date with Pittsburgh's soft defense, which has allowed 603 yards and six touchdowns on 132 carries (4.57 YPC) to opposing running backs and will be without NT Steve McLendon (shoulder). The Steelers have been especially vulnerable to zone-scheme running games. Texans rookie coach Bill O'Brien has kept many of Houston's zone-blocking concepts intact from the Gary Kubiak era. Foster's legs should be as fresh as they'll be all season on a long week between Thursday and Monday games. ... Ryan Fitzpatrick has played poorly for a month-long stretch now, which elicited questions from reporters following last Thursday night's loss as to whether O'Brien will stick with FitzMagic as his starter. Over his last four games, Fitzpatrick is 76-of-119 passing for 923 yards and a 3:6 TD-to-INT ratio. He's absorbed ten sacks, fumbling three times (one lost). As the Texans continue to rack up losses, the probability of an in-game benching will increase for Fitzpatrick. Ryan Mallett and rookie Tom Savage are waiting in the wings.
FitzMagic's Weeks 1-6 target distribution: Andre Johnson 54; DeAndre Hopkins 33; Foster 24; Damaris Johnson 14; Garrett Graham 13; Alfred Blue 4. ... Continuing to get beaten like a drum, Steelers LCB Cortez Allen allowed well over 100 receiving yards into his coverage in last week's blowout loss to Cleveland, including Jordan Cameron's 51-yard touchdown bomb. The Texans shuttle Johnson and Hopkins back and forth between the left and right sides, but ultimately Hopkins gets most of his catches against left corners. Look for a rebound game from Houston's sophomore breakout wideout following last Thursday night's surprise 1-12-0 clunker. Hopkins' average of 5.5 targets per game locks him in as more of a WR3 than WR2, despite his current top-20 fantasy receiver ranking. ... Johnson has remained a target monster in O'Brien's offense. The fantasy results hadn't caught up until the Thursday night loss to Indianapolis, where Andre made catches on stingy RCB Vontae Davis and demonstrated great concentration on his four-yard touchdown catch, getting just behind LCB Greg Toler. On Monday night, Johnson will run routes against both RCB William Gay and LCB Allen. Fantasy owners should hope O'Brien gets Johnson matched up on Allen in scoring position. 12th among all NFL wideouts in targets and 10th in catches (34), Johnson is an every-week WR2. ... The Texans seem to be disappointed in Graham, holding him under 40 snaps in back-to-back games. Slot receiver Damaris Johnson's usage has begun to climb, at the expense of two-tight end packages. Houston's passing offense has been unable to support more than one fantasy-viable starter on a week-to-week basis, let alone two or three. Graham has no re-draft value.
Score Prediction: Steelers 24, Texans 20
