Matchup: Saints @ Bears
Monday Night Football
New Orleans @ Chicago
With a 54-point over-under and New Orleans favored by three, Monday night's game sets up nicely for a Drew Brees bounce back following last week's unforeseen clunker. The Bears have been shredded by the pass all year, and particularly so over their last two games. Like Brees, Matthew Stafford and Tony Romo both entered their Weeks 13 and 14 dates with Chicago coming off bad games and/or stretches. They emerged combining to complete 55-of-71 throws (77.5%) for 595 yards (8.38 YPA) with five touchdowns and zero picks. On the year, Chicago has allowed a league-high 30 touchdown passes and a passer rating of 103.4, the NFL's third worst clip. Expect a box-score rebound for Brees against Mel Tucker's slump-busting defense. ... Having lost WLB Lance Briggs and MLB D.J. Williams for the season, the Bears have also begun playing sub-par run defense after defending the run relatively well for most of the year. Lions and Cowboys running backs carved up Chicago for 287 yards and four TDs on 56 runs (5.13 YPC) in their last two games. Considering his career-high workload this season, it's within the realm of possibility that Mark Ingram's light Week 14 usage (10 carries) may work in his favor over the final three weeks. Ingram had handled 23-plus rushing attempts in five of his previous six games. Now playing on a long week, Ingram is back in the RB1 discussion at Soldier Field. Breather back Khiry Robinson returned from his forearm injury in last week's loss to Carolina, but didn't play a snap.
Brees' target distribution since Brandin Cooks went on I.R. three games ago: Jimmy Graham 21; Kenny Stills 19; Pierre Thomas 18; Marques Colston 16; Nick Toon 11; Ben Watson 7; Ingram and Joe Morgan 6; Travaris Cadet 4. ... The Bears get torn up by tight ends, allowing the most fantasy points in the league to the position. Like Brees, Graham is an excellent bet to get back on track versus Chicago's league-worst safety-linebacker combination. ... Stills has been the Saints' No. 1 wideout since Cooks was lost for the year, and it hasn't been particularly close. Despite weak stat sheet numbers (3-23-0), Stills' 73% snap rate in last week's loss to the Panthers was his second highest of the season. Stills is probably more of a WR3 than the WR2 he produced like in Weeks 12 and 13, but he's a solid fantasy play against Chicago's sieve-like pass defense. ... On pace for a highly disappointing 57-869-4 receiving line this year, 31-year-old Colston is on the WR3 fringe despite this plus matchup. He's been more productive since the loss of Cooks, but has still cleared 60 receiving yards just twice over his last seven games. ... Seeing light and unpredictable usage since he returned from rib and shoulder injuries three games ago, Pierre Thomas' Weeks 12-14 snap rates were 53%, 25%, and 54% with touch totals of 11, 5, and 9. He's hard to take seriously as a flex play in the fantasy semifinals.
Jay Cutler's on-field performance has frustrated all season, but he still ranks No. 9 in fantasy quarterback scoring and has accounted for 13 touchdowns over his last six games. He's a surefire top-12 quarterback play in a plus matchup and in a game with a lofty over-under. Over the last month, New Orleans' pass defense has been gutted by Andy Dalton, Joe Flacco, Ben Roethlisberger, and Cam Newton for a combined 87-of-137 passing (63.5%), 1,124 yards (8.20 YPA), and a 9:2 TD-to-INT ratio. The Saints were forced to demote 2013 first-round pick SS Kenny Vaccaro this week for poor performance. ... The less-volatile and arguably higher-ceiling Week 15 fantasy play on Chicago's side is Matt Forte, whose matchup is similarly stellar. New Orleans has silver plattered 784 yards and six touchdowns on 136 carries (5.76 YPC) to running backs over the last five weeks, including Jonathan Stewart's 20-155-1 renaissance game last Sunday. Forte should be in the mix to finish as this week's top fantasy running back start.
Alshon Jeffery will almost certainly have to deal with Saints top CB Keenan Lewis' shadow coverage in this game, but that's not necessarily a bad thing. Not the same player since a midseason knee injury, Pro Football Focus has charged Lewis with five touchdowns allowed over his last five games. Among 102 qualifiers, Lewis is PFF's No. 90 cornerback over the last month. Jeffery has 100-plus yards and/or a touchdown in nine of his last 11 games and could be in store for an extreme-volume, Monday night blowup with Brandon Marshall (ribs/lung) out of commission. ... Starting in place of Marshall, second-year Bears WR Marquess Wilson is a Week 15 sleeper and worth a serious daily-league look at his minimum price tag. He should be a safe bet for six-plus targets, and perhaps as many as nine matching up with inconsistent Saints No. 2 corner Patrick Robinson. Wilson is just a boom-or-bust WR3 dart throw in re-draft leagues. ... The Saints have allowed the eighth fewest fantasy points in the league to tight ends, but coughed up a 10-72-1 receiving line to Greg Olsen last week and 8-82-0 to Heath Miller the week before. Martellus Bennett has assumed a huge role whenever Marshall has been hobbled this season and went 12-84-1 in last week's loss to Dallas when Marshall left 18 snaps into the game. Martellus is a top-three tight end play on Monday Night Football.
Score Prediction: Saints 30, Bears 24
