Matchup: Bears @ Jets
Monday Night Football
Chicago @ NY Jets
The Jets' secondary was able to tread water in Week 1 against Raiders rookie Derek Carr, but predictably got exposed by Aaron Rodgers' precision passing in last Sunday's loss to Green Bay. All four of the Jets' secondary starters earned negative grades from Pro Football Focus as Jordy Nelson exploded for 209 yards and a touchdown, while Rodgers dropped 346 with three scores. Enter Jay Cutler in the Rodgers role with Brandon Marshall playing Nelson. Their numbers are obviously unlikely to be quite as lofty, but both Cutler and Marshall are elite fantasy bets. Cutler entered Week 3 as the fantasy QB3 overall, with Marshall as the fantasy WR2 behind only Calvin Johnson. The Jets will be without top CB Dee Milliner (ankle/quad) on Monday night. ... It should be noted that all three of Marshall's Week 2 touchdowns came on slot routes, where he aligns in all three-wide packages. Marshall goes 6-foot-4 1/2, 229. Jets slot corner Kyle Wilson stands 5-foot-10, 194. ... Cutler's Weeks 1-2 target distribution: Marshall 20; Martellus Bennett 18; Matt Forte 17; Alshon Jeffery 12; Santonio Holmes 7. ... Jeffery noticeably lagged behind early in last week's win over San Francisco, nursing his balky hamstring. He found a late-game rhythm with Cutler on back-shoulder throws, finishing with 47 yards. Despite playing at less than 100%, Jeffery still handled 92% of the Bears' offensive snaps. Now playing on Monday night, the long week should help Jeffery. Perhaps downgrade him to a WR2 until he regains all of his explosion, but he's still a must-start.
Bennett's passing-game role has increased with Marshall (ankle) and Jeffery (hamstring) battling early-season injuries. I tend to doubt things will stay this way as both wideouts get healthy. Still, the Jets have enough back-seven flaws that Marty B should have openings on Monday night. It's hard to say anything definitively about Bennett's matchup because the Jets have only faced Oakland and Green Bay's barely-there tight ends. Consider Bennett a passable TE1 until he slows down. ... The Bears cut preseason backup Shaun Draughn this week, and think enough of rookie Ka'Deem Carey to have let him play four snaps on the season. I think the Bears need to explore adding a veteran free agent running back. As long as the backfield stays as is, however, Forte is going to be a usage machine. In Weeks 1-2, he led all NFL running backs in snaps played and racked up 42 touches. Despite a tough road matchup with the stout Jets front -- Rex Ryan's group has held Eddie Lacy to 13-43-0 and Maurice Jones-Drew/Darren McFadden to 13-26-0 -- Forte remains an RB1 in Week 3.
Particularly with Eric Decker battling an aggravated hamstring injury, expect the Jets to attack Chicago in the running game. The Bears' defense continues to show vulnerability on the ground, allowing 49ers and Bills tailbacks to combine for 237 yards and a touchdown on 44 carries (5.39 YPC) in Weeks 1-2. Chicago was particularly vulnerable to read-option plays when facing E.J. Manuel and Colin Kaepernick, which is something the Jets can copy with Geno Smith. ... Whereas Chris Johnson has 89 scoreless yards on 25 carries (3.56 YPC) through two weeks, Chris Ivory has parlayed 23 runs into 145 yards (6.30 YPC) and two touchdowns. The Jets continue to use an even committee with CJ?K and Ivory both playing 27 snaps in last week's loss to Green Bay. I prefer Ivory this week as an RB2 and good bet to hit pay dirt. Johnson owners need him to hit long runs to pay fantasy dividends. Johnson's running mentality has not changed much moving from Tennessee to New York. He's a boom-or-bust proposition on a play-to-play and ultimately week-to-week basis. ... Geno is an intriguing Week 3 streamer. He quietly ranks 13th among fantasy quarterbacks and has made significant year-two strides, based both on his preseason performance and to-date regular season play. I've got him going in a two-quarterback league and I'm excited about him, though I'll feel a lot better if Eric Decker plays.
Smith's Weeks 1-2 target distribution: Decker and Jeremy Kerley 13; CJ?K 8; Jeff Cumberland 7; Jace Amaro 5; Greg Salas, Bilal Powell, and David Nelson 2. ... Listed as questionable, Decker practiced on a limited basis Saturday. Rex Ryan has expressed optimism that Decker will play, but Rex is optimistic about most things. Decker is headed for a full-blown game-time decision. If Decker does suit up, he'll be the third best fantasy wideout option in this game, behind Marshall and Jeffery. The Bears lost RCB Charles Tillman in Week 2 to a year-ending triceps year. ... The rest of New York's pass-catching corps has no real value, although Kerley could come into play as a WR3 in PPR leagues if Decker sits. Cumberland, Amaro, Salas, and Nelson are all role players who don't see consistent enough targets to trust in an already relatively low-volume passing attack.
Score Prediction: Bears 24, Jets 23
