Fantasy Risers: AL Central
Over the past several weeks, the Rotoworld staff has been highlighting players whose fantasy value is on the rise headed into the 2015 season. We've been breaking them down by division. The National League East, National League Central, National League West, and American League East have already been tackled. Now we move along to the American League Central ...
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Carlos Carrasco, SP, Indians
Carrasco was ranked a preseason Top 100 prospect by Baseball America in 2007, 2008, and 2009, and when the Indians traded Cliff Lee to the Phillies in July of ‘09 they insisted that the Venezuelan right-hander be part of the return package. A half-decade later, that demand is finally beginning to pay off.
Carrasco struggled out of the gate in 2014, losing his Opening Day rotation spot after just four outings, but he then became a weapon out of the Cleveland bullpen and eventually won back his starting job. Between his late-April demotion to relief and the end of the 2014 regular season, Carrasco registered a 1.69 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, and 117/20 K/BB ratio in 112 innings. The 27-year-old late-bloomer was a legitimate fantasy ace down the stretch, and he dominated over a significant enough sample size for us to comfortably anoint him a front-line fantasy starter heading into 2015.
J.D. Martinez, OF, Tigers
Speaking of post-hype late-bloomers …
Martinez began producing eye-popping numbers in the minors immediately after the Astros made him a 20th-round pick in the 2009 MLB Amateur Draft, forcing his way to the majors by the middle of the 2011 season. He showed flashes of promise in that rookie campaign, but a combined .245/.295/.376 slash line followed in 2012 and 2013, and Houston released him in the spring of 2014. Martinez signed a minor league contract with the Tigers a couple of days later and made his debut for Detroit on April 21, drawing a walk as a pinch-hitter. By the end of the summer, the 27-year-old was batting fifth behind Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez.
J.D. wound up with a .912 OPS, 23 home runs, and 76 RBI after 123 regular-season games, and he homered twice in the Tigers’ three straight ALDS losses to the Orioles.
Yordano Ventura, SP, Royals
Ventura was rated the 12th overall prospect in the sport by Baseball Prospectus prior to the beginning of the 2014 season and he met the hype and more in his terrific rookie campaign. The 23-year-old Dominican right-hander posted a 3.20 ERA (125 ERA+) and 159 strikeouts across 183 regular-season innings and then kept it all going in the Royals’ improbable postseason run, even delivering seven shutout frames in Game 6 of the World Series, a 10-0 win for Kansas City. Ventura averages 97 mph on his fastball and he’ll often touch triple digits multiple times over the course of an outing. Add in a changeup that averages 87.5 mph and a curveball that averages 82.8 mph and you’ve got the profile of an ace. That’s how he’ll be treated in KC next season with James Shields departing as a free agent. He’s up to the task.
Adam Eaton, OF, White Sox
Eaton has never put up huge fantasy numbers -- he finished with just one home run and 15 stolen bases in 2014 -- but the guy has all the makings of a typical late-20s breakout candidate. Get him cheap on draft and reap the rewards.
Eaton missed a large chunk of the 2013 campaign with an elbow injury and he battled wrist, leg, and finger issues for the early part of 2014, but the baseball world caught a glimpse of what he’s capable of when his health finally began cooperating late this past summer. Eaton batted .352/.401/.452 between July 10 and the end of September, tallying 70 hits and scoring 35 runs in 51 games. The on-base skills have been there all along and he’s fast enough to steal 25-plus bases if he can avoid the disabled list. The power should come creeping along too, aided by the hitter-friendly conditions at Chicago’s U.S. Cellular Field. Eaton is projected to bat leadoff in 2015 on a quickly-improving White Sox club. You’ll want to be along for the ride.
Yan Gomes, C, Indians
The Indians stole Gomes from the Blue Jays in a November 2012 trade that was centered around right-hander Esmil Rogers and now have a long-term answer at catcher after signing the 27-year-old Brazilian to a bargain six-year, $23 million contract extension in March 2014. Gomes collected his first Silver Slugger Award this past season, batting .278/.314/.472 with 21 home runs and 74 RBI in 135 games for the Tribe. And there’s reason to think that there’s more upside to be tapped given that Gomes slashed .294/.345/.481 as a 25-year-old in 2013. He’s very good defensively and he provides offensive production at a position where such a thing is rare. Get on board before the name recognition grows.
Phil Hughes, SP, Twins
Minnesota has made a number of curious recent offseason moves, and signing Hughes to a three-year, $24 million contract last winter looked like it might be another one. Hughes had finished his rollercoaster tenure with the Yankees with a rough 5.19 ERA in 2013 and few could have predicted that he would suddenly blossom into a reliable top-of-the-rotation starter. But … well … he did.
Hughes was terrific in his first year with the Twins, posting a 3.52 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 32 starts while striking out 186 batters and issuing only 16 walks -- SIXTEEN WALKS -- in 209 2/3 innings. He went 16-10 on a team that finished 22 games under .500. Getting away from the power-friendly confines of Yankee Stadium and into the more cavernous dimensions of Target Field certainly helped the cause, but the biggest change might have been that he abandoned his slider and brought back his cutter. He’s pitching smarter, and it’s a safe bet that he’ll follow the same script in 2015. Hughes finished tied for fourth in pitcher WAR (6.1) in 2014 with David Price and Jon Lester. According to that metric, only Corey Kluber, Clayton Kershaw, and Felix Hernandez were better.
Lorenzo Cain, OF, Royals
Cain’s nearly-unmatched athleticism finally grabbed the attention of a national audience this past fall when he helped guide the Royals to the World Series. Because he’s now a household name, the 28-year-old center fielder probably won’t come that cheap in fantasy drafts for the 2015 season. But we’ve got the feeling he’s going to live up to his rising star status.
In 2014, Cain hit .301/.339/.412 and stole 28 bases in 133 regular-season games and then batted .333/.388/.417 in the playoffs. Defense is where he really shines, but Cain has made major strides in his plate approach and still has a number of years left in what is considered a baseball player’s prime. Keep in mind that he didn’t start playing the sport until he was a sophomore in high school. Better yet, just read this excellent profile from Andy McCullough of the Kansas City Star. Cain has ridiculous raw tools.
Honorable Mentions
Zach Putnam, RP, White Sox
The White Sox played with several different looks at closer in 2014 but finally seemed to settle on Putnam as their man down the stretch. He had a very good overall year, delivering a 1.98 ERA and 1.079 WHIP in 54 2/3 total innings. The strikeout rate (7.6 K/9) was underwhelming, but Putnam missed bats at a pretty good rate in the minors (8.7 career K/9 at Triple-A) so there should be improvement coming on that front. Putnam turned 27 years old this past July.
Nick Castellanos, 3B, Tigers
Castellanos didn’t light the American League on fire in his 2014 rookie campaign, finishing with a weak .259/.306/.394 slash line in 579 plate appearances. But he did slug 11 home runs and he also tallied 66 RBI while hitting primarily sixth or seventh in a very good Tigers lineup. We’d expect the 22-year-old third baseman to take a personal step forward in 2015, and the Detroit batting order should be just as giving with RBI opportunities.
Cody Allen, RP, Indians
John Axford opened the 2014 season as the Indians’ ninth-inning man, but that only lasted a month before manager Terry Francona wisely handed the gig to his most talented reliever. Allen took the job in early May and ran away with it, collecting 24 saves in 28 chances alongside a sparkling 2.07 ERA. The 26-year-old right-hander also struck out 91 batters in 69 2/3 innings for a K/9 of 11.8. He should be near the top tier of fantasy closers in 2015.
Salvador Perez, C, Royals
Perez was a hot pick to break out in 2014 after hitting .292/.323/.433 with 13 homers and 79 RBI in 2013. He did meet that expectation to some degree, slugging a career-high 17 homers and again playing Gold Glove defense, but his final slash line for the 2014 campaign was a paltry .260/.289/.403. We’ll go ahead and pick him to break out again. He doesn’t turn 25 years old until next May.
Danny Salazar, SP, Indians
Salazar debuted in late 2013 and registered an outstanding 3.12 ERA, 1.135 WHIP, and 65/15 K/BB ratio across his first 52 innings at the major league level. All signs pointed to him becoming a top young fantasy starter in 2014, but it didn’t quite happen. Still, we believe in the talent. He throws hard, has nasty breaking stuff, and boasts 185 strikeouts in 162 career big league frames.
