Buy Low, Sell High
NBA player's values are in flux throughout the season, and never more so than in the first few weeks. What seems like a trend today may prove to have been a mirage next month. Today's column takes a look at various players whose usage rates are at career-highs or career-lows, players who are benefiting from teammates' injuries, and which players qualify as 'buy low' or 'sell high' players at this extremely early juncture of the season.
Our weekly 'Buy Low, Sell High' column will run in the NBA Season Pass. If you're not already a subscriber, you can get year-long access right now for just $14.99.
My standard disclaimer is that, as with any competitive marketplace, a fantasy player is worth exactly what another owner will pay for them. If someone highly prizes Tobias Harris' upside, is willing to overlook his injury history and needs a small forward, they might give up a much higher-profile player to get him. Every veteran fantasy owner has seen a dozen trades which at least on the surface appear lopsided, all of which were the result of intrepid GMs testing the market.
Mike Gallagher ran a great column about advanced stats on Tuesday, in which he discusses the importance of usage rates, effective FG percentage and pace. He's going to follow up with a 'usage rate' column throughout the season, too, so if you're interested in what follows be sure to check it out!
*Usage Rate refers to the percentage of a team's plays which ended with a particular player while they were on the court. I'm using the numbers from Basketball-Reference.com, which should be on every NBA fan's list of all-time favorite sites.
I reserve judgment as to whether the players below are in line for larger/smaller offensive roles this season, or whether their usage rates are situational or merely the result of a tiny sample size. I offer more 'prescriptive' advice later in the column.
Career-High Usage Rates
DeMar DeRozan: 30.5%, up a few points from last year
Jamal Crawford: 29.8% is the highest mark in his free-wheeling 15-year career.
Klay Thompson: 29.4%, up from 22.6% last season
Isaiah Thomas: 29.0%, up from 26.3% with the Kings last year
Jeff Teague: 28.5%, up from 25.7% last season
Greivis Vasquez: 27.2% is four points higher than any previous season
Joe Johnson: 27.0% is his highest mark since 2006-07 with the Hawks
Marc Gasol: 26.8%, a huge leap from his previous career-high of 21.7%
Jimmy Butler: 26.6%, which shatters his previous career-high of 16.8%
Mike Conley: 26.1%, up from last year's career-high 24.6%
Terrence Jones: 22.3% is easily the highest usage of T-Jones' three-year career
Serge Ibaka: 22.0%
Chris Bosh's 28.4% is nearly six points higher than last season and barely misses his career-high usage rate from the 2009-10 season with Toronto
Josh Smith's 28.0% is four points higher than last year and barely misses his career-high
Career-Low Usage Rates
Kyrie Irving: 25.8%
Kevin Love: 20.9%
Paul Pierce: 19.6%
Chris Paul: 19.2% is four points lower than last season
Ty Lawson: 19.0% is the lowest since his rookie season in 2009-10
Roy Hibbert: 18.8%
Jeremy Lin: 18.9% is the lowest since his brief rookie season in 2010-11
Terrence Ross: 17.6%
Trevor Ariza: 16.9% is his lowest in seven years
Larry Sanders: 15.9%
Jameer Nelson: 14.4%
Andre Iguodala: 13.2% is the lowest since he was a rookie in 2004-05
Kobe Bryant's ridiculous usage rate of 38.6% actually seems sustainable, despite being the second-highest in the NBA this year behind Russell Westbrook (who was at 45.5% before breaking his hand). I wrote on Tuesday that Kobe is "slipping into 2006-era ball-dominance," a season during which he had a 38.7% usage rate, and there's not much help available on the Lakers' roster. Jordan Hill has stepped up the past three games, Jeremy Lin can only get better, and the return of Nick Young will steal a few shots from Kobe, but he's a lock to finish around 35%. Other sustainable usage rates include go-to scoring options like Carmelo Anthony (33.6%), DeMarcus Cousins (33.6%), Blake Griffin (32.0%) and James Harden (31.9%).
Tony Wroten is the first player we encounter whose lofty usage rate seems totally unsustainable. He posted a career-high usage rate of 27.7% in a bench role last season, which has ballooned to 30.8% in a starting role with Michael Carter-Williams (shoulder) on the shelf. Philly is 0-4 with Wroten as their alpha-dog on offense, due in no small part to his high-volume 58.3% free throw shooting and 4.5 turnovers per game (third-highest in the NBA behind Reggie Jackson and LeBron James). The Sixers aren't shy about losing games, but it's only a matter of time before coach Brett Brown reins in Wroten -- especially with MCW expected to begin practicing on Thursday.
Follow me on Twitter @Knaus_RW for injury updates, NBA stats and fantasy advice!
Benefiting from Injuries
Usage rates tell an interesting part of the story, but they don't explain why a player's role has increased or whether that increase is sustainable. Injuries to teammates are a common theme. As noted above, Jimmy Butler's current usage rate is nearly 10% higher than his previous best. He's averaging 22.5 points in two games since returning from a thumb injury, aided by a ridiculous 13.0 free throw attempts per game. His two-game outburst coincides with Derrick Rose (ankle) going down, however, and it's inevitable that Butler's usage will slide once D-Rose re-takes the reins of Chicago's offense. When that will happen is uncertain, as Rose was a last-minute scratch the past two games and has been downgraded to questionable for Wednesday. A scaled-back role on offense shouldn't hurt Butler's fantasy value much thanks to his versatility, and it may even help owners who are leery of his heavily-weighted 69.2% free throw shooting.
Jameer Nelson is already averaging a career-low 14.4% usage, easily the scantiest in his 11-year career. That's doubly concerning since he's playing without Raymond Felton (ankle), who will steal at least a few possessions per game once he's back in action. Devin Harris' owners should also bear that in mind -- he's averaging a solid 13.3 points, 2.3 triples, 5.0 assists and 1.3 steals in 27.5 minutes per game, all of which are likely to decline once Felton starts chipping away at his playing time.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope's starting SG job should be safe for at least another five weeks, which is the earliest date Jodie Meeks (back) is expected back in action. He's averaging a whopping 39.3 minutes per game this year but has struggled offensively with 9.3 points on 26.2% shooting (including a 2-of-16 mark from downtown). That paltry production, combined with the likelihood that his minutes will plummet with Meeks healthy, makes KCP an obvious guy to shop around if/when he blows up for a 25-point game.
Tony Wroten and Donald Sloan are two of the most obvious players benefitting from injuries. I touched upon Wroten's inevitable decline above, and Sloan is just as certain to drop off whenever George Hill returns from his ankle injury (currently he has no timetable). It also helps that Rodney Stuckey has been limited by a tendon injury in his foot. I can't call Wroten or Sloan 'sell-high' players because every fantasy owner knows that their value is short-lived. Through four games this year, Sloan is averaging 11.8 points, 1.3 triples, 5.0 rebounds, 6.5 assists, 0.8 steals and 2.8 turnovers in 34.3 minutes per game. Just enjoy it while it lasts. Ditto for Knicks' PG Shane Larkin, who is starting on borrowed time with Jose Calderon (hamstring) out of commission.
Shawne Williams has stepped up nicely in Miami's first four games this year, contributing 12.0 points, 2.3 threes, 5.0 boards, 2.0 assists and 1.0 steals as a fill-in starter. He's also averaging a microscopic 0.3 turnovers in just under 30 minutes per game, giving him unlikely mid-round value in nine-cat leagues. The ride will end soon enough, however, as he's benefitting from the strict minute-limit for Josh McRoberts (toe), as well as lingering injuries for Danny Granger (hamstring), Chris Andersen (ribs) and Udonis Haslem (quad).
The Knicks' frontcourt is a muddled mess which fantasy owners should try to avoid, but you may find yourself turning to Amare Stoudemire or even Samuel Dalembert for low-end production early in the season. There are numerous reasons to avoid both players. In addition to Stoudemire's knee problems, he's apparently lost the starting PF job to Quiny Acy (wrist). Both STAT and Dalembert face a challenge for playing time from Jason Smith, the return of Andrea Bargnani is a looming unknown for everyone's roles, and even Cole Aldrich could barge into the rotation at some point. Stoudemire and Dalembert belong on the waiver wire.
Perry Jones is one of the more obvious 'sell-high' candidates, though once again it's not as though rational fantasy owners expect his production to continue once Russell Westbrook (hand) and Kevin Durant (foot) return to action. In a best-case scenario, Jones might squeak into a starting job with a drastically reduced usage rate (currently 22.0%), or thrive in a go-to role alongside Reggie Jackson in the second unit. If you can find an owner willing to trade mediocre season-long value for Jones' short-term upside, it would be hard to pass up. A separate column could be devoted to OKC's injury woes, and Aaron Bruski has already covered the bases in the Wednesday Dose.
To his credit, Evan Fournier has made good use of his above-average playing time and starting job in Victor Oladipo's continued absence. Fournier is averaging career-highs in True Shooting percentage (61.6%) and Free Throw Rate (31.1%), with his lowest-ever Turnover Rate (12.0%). That's been accompanied by sharp drops in per-minute rebounding and assists, unfortunately, but any development is welcome for Orlando's young SG. The problem for fantasy owners is that he's barely holding value in 33 minutes per game. Beyond his solid 15.8 points and 2.0 threes per game, he's contributing a hollow 2.8 boards, 1.0 assists, 0.3 steals and 0.0 blocks. Oladipo's return is still a while away, but I'm willing to part with Fournier if there's a more viable long-term option on the waiver wire.
Buy-Low Targets
Tobias Harris wasn't listed above, but his 25.4% usage rate is also a career high. He's shooting a career-worst 43.3 percent from the field through four games, however, so the buy-low opportunity explains itself. He might lose a few touches upon Victor Oladipo's return, but Evan Fournier is the more likely victim in that scenario and Harris should benefit from less defensive attention -- Orlando's offense ranks 25th in offensive efficiency and can use any help it can get.
Luol Deng is a fair guy to target if his owner is willing to part with him for another player with late-round value, which is where Deng is at the moment. He hurt his arm on Tuesday which led to a very quiet night (11 points, one rebound) and is off to a slow start, including a mere 3.3 rebounds in 30 minutes per game -- his rebound rate of 7.1% is by far the lowest of his career, and the Heat will need him to work harder on the glass. He's adjusting to a new system and new teammates, and I anticipate slow but steady improvement as long as he stays healthy.
Kemba Walker is a definite buy-low candidate. Field goal percentage has always been his Achilles heel in fantasy leagues and he's simply killing owners right now, making 32.2 percent of his 14.8 shots per game. He's also ice-cold at the FT line, hitting just 61.1% of his freebies after making 83.7% last season. Once again, this tiny sample size is misleading and opportunistic fantasy owners should pounce at the opportunity to get Walker below his season-long value.
Goran Dragic is self-explanatory. In a blurb on Tuesday, I wrote, "Dragic ... [has] yet to make a 3-pointer in four games this season. Eric Bledsoe has the security of a massive contract extension and Isaiah Thomas seems comfortable in his niche as a go-to playmaker off the bench, but Dragic has yet to find his footing in 2014-15. He can't be much worse than he's been through four games, but fantasy owners may have to quickly accept that the competition in the Suns' backcourt will preclude Dragic from approaching last year's career-best averages." Owners will be reluctant to part with a guy they burned a top-40 pick on, to be sure, but his lousy start should soften their stance considerably -- he's averaging 13.5 points, 0.0 threes, 4.8 rebounds, 2.0 assists and 0.3 steals, which is dreadful for a fantasy PG. It's worth taking a run at him.
K.J. McDaniels is shooting 40.0% at the FT line but he's shooting 52.0% from the field, and both numbers feel fluky due to a four-game sample size. He's chipping in 9.0 points, 1.5 threes, 1.8 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 0.3 steals and 1.3 blocks, and is doing it in just 20.2 minutes as a reserve. I'll be shocked if he's not playing closer to 30 minutes as a starter by the All-Star break, at the latest, and I'm all for stashing him away while you can in 14-team leagues.
Jeremy Lin is yet another vastly underperforming PG, who has only helped fantasy owners this season in assists (5.0) and FT shooting (91.7%). Everywhere else, he's flirting with career-lows. The Lakers desperately need him to step it up, taking some burden off Kobe Bryant, and his playing time (currently 28.8 minutes per game) should only increase with L.A.'s backups being Ronnie Price and Jordan Clarkson.
Sell-High Targets
Joe Johnson has solid mid-round potential in Brooklyn, particularly if he stays as engaged as he's been offensively through three games, but he's playing above his head right now. His usage rate and scoring (22.0 ppg) are the highest they've been since 2006-07, he's making a career-high 2.3 triples per game on 46.7% shooting beyond the arc, and both his FG percentage (50.0%) and rebounds (6.7) are also career highs. Paul Pierce's departure has left more on Johnson's plate, to be sure, but there's no way he'll keep up this pace.
Brandon Knight has been given free rein by coach Jason Kidd early in the season, resulting in a barrage of career-high stats. They include scoring (20.5 points per game), FG% (46.4%), 3-point shooting (2.0 makes on 53.3% from deep), FT makes and attempts, rebounds (6.8), assists (7.3) and steals (1.3). He's just 22 years old and has made tremendous strides the past two seasons, so I don't expect him to be a bust, but any time a guy is shattering career-highs across the board after four games...you're mandated to at least see if another owner will overpay for him. And if you haven't seen B-Knight's all-time-awkward turnover from Tuesday night, click here. It's worth 20 seconds of your life.
Lance Stephenson seems like a counter-intuitive guy to 'sell high' since he's off to a lousy start in Charlotte and has been benched for two entire fourth quarters. My reasoning here is that many fantasy owners are still enamored with his upside, particularly his penchant for triple-doubles, and will overlook the paucity of other stats he offers. Charlotte is playing with the 4th-slowest pace of any team in the league, similar to last year, so Stephenson won't gain from a post-Pacers boost in that department. He's not the most adaptable player and I fear that before too long his sluggish statistics will be accepted as the norm -- trade him to an optimistic owner before the reality of his situation erodes his value.
Ty Lawson's ankle injury scares me, and it has since a report surfaced this summer that he didn't run for months after hurting himself and was dealing with "minor bone damage." That phrase was a glaring red flag, and coach Brian Shaw admitted prior to the season that his ankle was still causing "some concern," though to his credit Lawson has yet to miss a regular season game. Don't sell him for pennies on the dollar, of course, but if you can flip Lawson for a more stable option like Mike Conley, it's a no-brainer.
Elfrid Payton isn't playing poorly, but he's struggling in all the areas we anticipated for the rookie PG. He's shooting 30.6% from the field and an abysmal 47.4% from the FT line. His 2.8 turnovers per game aren't terrible, but he's only helping fantasy owners in two categories -- assists and (barely) steals. Plenty of owners are convinced he'll get better throughout the season, and his nice upside for assists is eye-catching, but owners in 8-cat and 9-cat leagues should be extremely wary of his damaging percentages. Flip him now for a middle round value, if you can, and you'll thank yourself later this season.
As a final reminder, after this week the 'Buy Low, Sell High' column will shift to the Season Pass for the rest of the year! Get it today!
