AccuScore Simulation: Gator Bowl

AccuScore has run more than 10,000 simulations for every bowl game for Yahoo! Sports, calculating how each team's performance changes in response to game conditions, opponent's abilities, roster moves, weather and more. Each game is simulated one play at a time and the game is replayed a minimum of 10,000 times to generate forecasted winning percentages, player statistics and a variety of game-changing scenarios. Here's AccuScore.com's analysis of the Gator Bowl.

Baseline: Texas Tech 70%, Virginia 30%; Score: Texas Tech 33, Virginia 24

Texas Tech has a high powered offense that racks up points and tries to blow teams out. In contrast, Virginia has made a habit of winning close games. The two teams have very different styles and AccuScore simulations show that the Red Raiders hold the advantage.

Led by quarterback Graham Harrell, Texas Tech is winning nearly 70 percent of simulations by more than eight points. We forecast Harrell to have another big day throwing for over 430 yards and three touchdowns. His main target is Biletnikoff winner Michael Crabtree, who we project to have to have nine catches for 115 yards and a touchdown.

Virginia quarterback Jameel Sewell is throwing for 180 yards and a score, while running back Mikell Simpson is gaining over 115 total yards and a touchdown leading the Cavs in both rushing and receiving. Led by All-American end Chris Long, the Virginia defense is forcing two turnovers while sacking Harrell almost five times per simulation. A strong effort will be needed to slow down the Red Raider aerial attack.

HOW WOULD MICHAEL CRABTREE PLAY FOR VIRGINIA?

Michael Crabtree has put up incredible numbers for Texas Tech culminating in the Biletnikoff award as the best receiver in college football. The freshman had 125 catches for 1861 yards and 21 touchdowns and broke numerous records in the process. AccuScore looked at what would happen to Crabtree’s forecast if he were playing for run oriented Virginia with Sewell as his quarterback and not Harrell.

This hypothetical "trade" to Virginia would reduces Texas Tech’s winning percentage by four points and forces Harrell to use less reliable targets. While there is no denying Crabtree’s skill, he benefits from being the focal point of an offense that throws the 75 percent of their plays. If he played for Virginia, he would still put up numbers, but his production is cut in half based on the Cavaliers approach to offense.

HOW MUCH DOES CEDRIC PEERMAN’S INJURY HURT VIRGINIA?

When Virginia running back Cedric Peerman was lost for the season with a foot injury, freshman Mikell Simpson filled in nicely with seven rushing touchdowns in six starts. Prior to going down, Peerman was having a great year and accounted for at least 130 total yards in four of six games.

AccuScore was curious to see how a healthy Peerman would help the Cavaliers against Texas Tech. We re-simulated the game with a healthy Peerman sharing the duties with Simpson. Under this scenario, UVA’s win probability increases eight percentage points. Virginia could focus on the run and would see substantial gains in all rushing categories.

For more information, visit www.accuscore.com.