2015 Breakdowns: Shortstop
The position breakdowns continue with shortstop this week. If you missed any of the previous articles, they’re all available in the archives.
If you haven’t already picked it up, the Rotoworld Draft Guide keeps getting better and better. Added last week was my mixed auction guide, and coming this week are recaps of our experts NL-only and AL-only mock drafts.
Underrated
Hanley Ramirez (Red Sox): I was a little pleasantly surprised to see Ramirez going ahead of Troy Tulowitzki in drafts this year, but it’s still not good enough. In Yahoo leagues, he’s getting taken an average of 23rd, with Tulo right behind him at No. 24. I have Ramirez seventh overall in the top 300 and Tulowitzki four spots behind. Ramirez has never been in a better situation that than he’s in now in Boston, taking aim at the Green Monster and hitting cleanup behind Dustin Pedroia and David Ortiz. He also seems like a better bet to stay healthy as a left fielder. The league switch worries me a bit, as it always does with players going from the NL to the AL, but that’s the only thing keeping him out of the overall top five for me. Ramirez was the NL’s best hitter while healthy in 2013, and while his numbers weren’t nearly as overwhelming last year, he was still the best shortstop not named Tulowitzki. 150 games started might be a stretch, but if he gets there, he should finish with 25 homers and 100 RBI. He’s the perfect second-round pick in mixed leagues.
Starlin Castro (Cubs): After an ugly 2013, Castro bounced back nicely offensively last year, hitting .292 with a career-best .438 slugging percentage. What didn’t bounce back was his steal total. Never a very good percentage basestealer anyway, he attempted just eight steals last year, converting four. Between that and the weak run and RBI numbers that came as a consequence of playing for such a poor offensive team, Castro wasn’t all that valuable for fantasy purposes. However, the Cubs are set to take a step forward with the bats this year, if not quite as big of one as some like to believe. If Castro hits .292 with 14 homers again, he should have much more than 58 runs scored and 65 RBI to show for it while batting in the top half of the lineup. I have him at a mere .280, which is lower than he’s hit in four of his five seasons, but he’s my No. 5 shortstop anyway, thanks to the 16 homers and 152 runs+RBI. He presents a great value opportunity, what with him going 132nd overall in Yahoo leagues.
Danny Santana (Twins): I’m not very high on Santana as a major league regular; his .319 average as a rookie screams fluke and it’s unclear whether he’ll prove to be a quality shortstop defensively after he spent most of last year in center. The funny thing is that no one else seems to believe in Santana, either. Experts are passing on him, and he’s not going off the board until the 17th round of Yahoo leagues. That seems rather extreme for a guy who was a big asset in three categories after getting the call last year (70 runs scored and 20 steals in 101 games). The Twins are going to keep him in the leadoff spot until he gives them reason not to, and they finished fifth in the AL in runs last year. If he can just hit .260-.270 and stay there all season long, he should be a pretty valuable player as a 25-30 steal guy. He’s my preferred choice in the middle rounds if I miss out on one of the top five shortstops.
Andrelton Simmons (Braves): I thought Simmons was going to be a top-10 shortstop last year. After all, he hit 17 homers as a 23-year-old in 2013, and while he finished with a .248 average, it came with one of baseball’s best strikeout rates (55 K’s in 658 PA). Last year, the power evaporated and the average still didn’t come, even though his strikeout rate remained quite strong. One would think there’s still a top-10 shortstop in here somewhere, though I’m going with a milder ranking this year; I have him 12th at the position. The encouraging news going into camp was that he was expected to hit second ahead of Freddie Freeman, though that might well change now that Eric Young Jr. could assume the leadoff spot, pushing Nick Markakis to the two hole. Simmons, though, will hit in the top half of the order if he proves he’s worthy. He could still be a nice MI in mixed leagues, one who could be had at the very end of drafts (he’s getting picked in eight percent of Yahoo leagues).
Overrated
Ian Desmond (Nationals): Desmond is going off the board right behind Hanley and Tulo in Yahoo leagues, getting taken an average of 27th overall. It’s not hard to see why; he’s clearly the safest choice of the elite shortstops, having played in 154 games four of the last five years. He’s also gone 20-20 three straight years, including his 130-game season in 2012. However, Desmond’s 2014 season came with one scary stat, as his strikeout rate jumped from 22 percent to 28. He was just the seventh middle infielder since 1900 to qualify for the batting title while fanning 28 percent of the time. Jose Hernandez did it three times, and Mark Bellhorn did it in 2004. The other two members of the club are currently Desmond’s teammates: Danny Espinosa in 2012 and Dan Uggla in 2013. I don’t think Desmond will strike out quite so much again, but he’ll do so enough that his batting average should remain quite mediocre. I also expect him to take a hit in runs scored since he’ll likely hit sixth more frequently with Bryce Harper moving up in the lineup. He’ll still end up around 20 homers and 20 steals, but I don’t think he’ll justify a top-30 selection.
Alexei Ramirez (White Sox): Ramirez finally put it together last year, reaching double figures in both homers and steals for the first time since 2010 and finishing with the second highest run and RBI totals of his career. Now, he’ll get to play in one of the best lineups he’s seen in his career, thanks to the White Sox’s additions of Melky Cabrera and Adam LaRoche. The problem there is that Ramirez figures to hit below most of the talent, likely occupying the sixth spot in the lineup behind the plodding LaRoche and a subpar OBP guy in Avisail Garcia. I also wouldn’t want to count on him hitting 15 homers again after he finished with six and nine the previous two years. I do have Ramirez as a top-10 shortstop, but in my mind, he’s just one in the pack. Yahoo has him as the fifth shortstop off the board, well ahead of Castro and Ben Zobrist.
Javier Baez (Cubs): I don’t know. I really don’t have a clue. And, for that reason, I’m just staying away. Baez has the NL’s quickest bat and the power to hit 30 homers in his first full season. He could also potentially set a new major league record for strikeouts given the chance. I mean, I have big concerns about Desmond striking out 28 percent of the time; Baez fanned in 41.5 percent of his plate appearances last year. Even in Triple-A, he came in at 30 percent. I suspect there’s a good chance Baez will open this season back in the minors, continuing to work on his swing. I’m not counting him out, by any means, and I wouldn’t go selling low on him in a keeper league. For this year, though, he’s just my No. 18 shortstop.
Sleepers
Brad Miller (Mariners): Like Simmons, Miller is someone I pegged as a top-10 shortstop last year (those 2014 shortstop rankings weren’t so good). He was a big flop, hitting .204/.273/.330 in the first half and losing his job to Chris Taylor. Miller did pick it up afterwards, hitting .268/.330/.464 in his very limited action in the second half. I think that’s the kind of line we could see from him in a full season, should he get the chance. Unfortunately, the Mariners kept both Miller and Taylor, leaving this year’s shortstop situation up on the air. I think both are worthy regulars, but Miller is certainly the more interesting of the two for fantasy purposes. Taylor, on the other hand, offers more defense, as well as some steal potential. Ideally, Miller would get 500 at-bats and hit 18-20 homers this year. However, while he has my sixth highest projected OPS among shortstops, I have him ranked just 21st at the position.
Wilmer Flores (Mets): It’s a good thing Flores proved a little better than expected defensively at shortstop last year, because he’s yet to hit in the majors. Still, that should be on the way. Flores is just 23. He’s hit .321/.360/.542 with 28 homers in his 644 Triple-A at-bats, which is pretty nice even after factoring in the generous environment at Las Vegas. He hit .311/.361/.494 as a 20-year-old in Double-A. He has at least 12-15 homer power, and he’s never struck out very much. I don’t see Flores becoming an asset in mixed leagues this year unless he can find his way to the top of the Mets lineup, but he should be a solid NL-only shortstop. I have him down for a .260 average, 14 homers and 60 RBI.
Jung-Ho Kang (Pirates): Kang made a nice first impression this spring, homering in his second at-bat for the Pirates. There’s good reason for skepticism about his impressive Korean numbers, particularly since the league’s scoring was well up last year, but there’s little doubt he has one of the biggest power strokes among shortstop eligibles. Playing time in Pittsburgh is a major question; Kang won’t get to as many balls as Jordy Mercer when he starts at shortstop and third base will only be open for him if Josh Harrison flops. So, my rather cautions projection calls for a .237-15-54 line in 396 at-bats. Unless he gets named the Pirates’ starting shortstop towards the end of the spring -- something I don’t expect to happen -- I don’t see him as worth the mixed-league flier, at least not right away.
Francisco Lindor (Indians): Lindor is one of the game’s 30 best shortstops right now and a likely upgrade from Jose Ramirez, but the Indians are going to make him wait before giving him a crack at shortstop. It’s not necessarily the wrong play; Lindor still has a ways to go offensively, though he makes up for it with his glove. I don’t think he’ll make an impact in mixed leagues until 2016 at the earliest. Still, he should get a look come June or July and turn into a useful AL-only shortstop the rest of the way.
