2014 NFL Survivor Pool Advice, Week 3: Brady in bunches
Every week on 'Thursday Night Live' -- watch it here -- we'll dole out tons of fantasy advice and survivor pool picks as well. If the pick is the Thursday night game, I'll announce it on Twitter @WillBrinson to give people the heads-up. Otherwise, look for this to drop every Friday.
Last week we took the not-so-bold (but nearly kind of disastrous) move of putting all our eggs in one basket for survivor pool purposes and shovel-stuffing the Broncos. We're back at it this week only with a different team. Because, you know, one time per and whatnot.
Lock of the Week
New England Patriots (vs. Oakland Raiders) -- Remember the whole thing about Denver's home schedule not being great until Week 12? The Patriots are in a similar boat and perhaps warrant burning them even more than Denver did.
After Oakland, their home games are the Bengals (Week 5), Jets (Week 7), Bears (Week 8), Broncos (Week 9), Lions (Week 12), Dolphins (Week 15) and Bills (Week 17).
None of those games are particularly comfortable, at least from this standpoint, and even if you think the Bills come back to earth, that's a) a long way away and b) a division game. Same with the Jets and Dolphins.
Oakland is also terrible! A rookie quarterback in Derek Carr with limited weapons against a Bill Belichick defense which appears to be the strength of this team is a great matchup for these purposes.
Twelve times in Tom Brady's career the Patriots have been 14-plus point favorites at home. While he's only 4-8 against the spread in those game, Brady is 12-0 straight up, which is all we need.
Next Best Pick
New Orleans Saints (vs. Vikings) -- Picking an 0-2 team to survive is dangerous, but the Saints are a different team when they play at home. This is Drew Brees' home opener, New Orleans is angry about sitting in third place in the division and they get a wounded Vikings team still (somehow) starting Matt Cassel and without Adrian Peterson.
Rob Ryan should have plenty of motivation to get his defense going for the first time this season against Minny. No guarantee on that end, of course, which means Brees might toss five touchdown passes just to make sure things don't get real weird in the Bayou.
Also Strong
Cincinnati Bengals (vs. Titans) -- The only real concern here is the randomness of the NFL and perhaps an unexpected bounceback from Jake Locker and the Titans offense. It's REAL hard to predict that though; they struggled at home against the Cowboys defense -- and if you watched the Bengals last week, you know they've got the ability to shut down a good offense traveling to the 'Nati.
The run game is clicking in Cincy with Giovani Bernard/Jeremy Hill and the Titans just gave up 167 rushing yards to DeMarco Murray in Week 2.
Captain Hindsight
Atlanta Falcons (vs. Buccaneers) -- Pretty sure I mentioned Atlanta on the show but wasn't 100 percent confident they'd handle the Buccaneers easily at home. Whoops. Our CBS crew finally shattered our 0-9 record when we all pick someone against the spread as Atlanta decimated the Bucs on Thursday night. You're feeling good if you're already in the clubhouse with a win.
Aggressive
Carolina Panthers (vs. Steelers) -- The other pick here is the Dolphins, but I can't talk myself into Miami being safe enough after they only scored 10 points against Buffalo. Carolina's not a lock by any means, of course, but this Steelers defense has been pretty terrible to start the year. The Panthers should be able to rush the ball effectively even if Jonathan Stewart is the only running back they play. And on defense, there's a chance Ben Roethlisberger's athleticism and toughness in extending plays leaves a weakened secondary vulnerable but the pass rush should be able ot mitigate what he can do. The biggest reason not to use the Panthers this week? They're going to play the Buccaneers at home late in the season.
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