Duncan will dominate
More Finals: Seven reasons why the Pistons will win Game 7
It all has come down to this: one game in San Antonio to decide the NBA championship. Will the Detroit Pistons defend their title and win back-to-back banners, or will the San Antonio Spurs capture their third crown in seven years?
The Pistons will try to maintain the momentum they built in winning three of the last four games of this series, including a Game 6 victory at the SBC Center that forced Thursday's decisive seventh game. The Spurs must regain the edge they had earlier in the series, and they'll rely on a raucous home crowd to help pull them through.
It's the first time in 11 years that the NBA has featured a Game 7 in the Finals. It's a fitting conclusion to what has become a fiercely contested series.
Here are seven reasons why the Spurs will win the Larry O'Brien Trophy.
1. They'll take care of the basketball.
In Game 6, San Antonio committed only 11 turnovers, which kept Detroit's fast break points down. The Spurs are at home, where it's easier to control the tempo and the ball.
2. They'll continue to hold their own on the boards.
After getting pounded on the glass earlier in the series, San Antonio has stayed even with Detroit in the last two games – actually out-rebounding the Pistons at the offensive end. That has negated the huge field-goal attempt advantage Detroit had earlier in the series.
3. The Spurs won't give up eight three-pointers.
The Spurs had the right formula in Game 6, but they didn't count on Detroit shooting the lights out from beyond the arc. The Pistons made only eight threes in the first five games. The law of averages says they won't make more than four in Game 7, and with the Spurs rebounding well and taking care of the ball, the Pistons will struggle to score.
4. Manu Ginobili is the most fearless player this side of Chauncey Billups.
Ginobili lives for moments like these, and he got to the rim repeatedly in Game 6. He has the mentality to take over in tense circumstances, and he'll find a way to help his team win.
5. Big Shot Rob will make a big basket.
Not exactly going out on a limb here, am I? Robert Horry has seen it all, and nothing seems to faze him. If the game is tight and Horry has the ball with an open shot, who wouldn't bet on him to make it?
6. The Spurs are at home.
In NBA Finals history, the home team has won 12 of 15 Game 7s. Sure, being on the road doesn't bother Detroit, but there's definitely an advantage to playing the final game of a series on your home floor. The statistics prove that.
7. Tim Duncan will come out of his shell and dominate.
He hasn't played well in this series (for him), and he's beating himself up for his subpar play. But his teammates should beat themselves up for not throwing him the ball in the fourth quarter of Game 6. The Spurs shot 28 threes – about 10 too many – and didn't get the ball to their big man enough. Duncan will respond to the pressure, play his best game of the series and lead his team to a championship.
