Ball Don't Lie - NBA

Once again back is the incredible ... Ball Don't Lie's NBA previews, outlining offseason moves, projecting win totals, spinning tracks and much, much more. It's a fun, hot mess. Right now, the Charlotte Bobcats.

2008-09 Record: 35-47, fourth place in Southeast Division
Head Coach/Accessories: Larry Brown/Glasses
Key Additions: Tyson Chandler(notes), Ronald Murray, Gerald Henderson(notes), Stephen Graham(notes)
Key Losses: Emeka Okafor(notes)

It wasn't hard to be pretty low on this team even before Raja Bell(notes) tore up his hand the other day.

I don't know where this team's points are going to come from. I'm having a hard time seeing the Bobcats keep up last season's solid defensive output (seventh in the NBA in defensive efficiency) with Bell out, Tyson Chandler bound to play only in spurts and Boris Diaw(notes) woefully out of shape to start yet another season.

Also, at some point, I have to give up on the idea of just handing the Bobcats wins just because they're coached by Larry Brown. Perhaps I'm off on this, perhaps his abilities (he still is a damn good coach, especially when he's not submarining his own influence by playing GM) are still profound enough to let the Bobcats flirt with winning 30 games, but I'm erring on the side of a woeful, woeful rotation this time around.

How can anyone get excited by this roster? Raymond Felton(notes) is a compact scorer who puts up solid stats mainly because he plays a ton of minutes, but he should be a fourth guard. D.J. Augustin(notes) really showed promise in his rookie year, and it's possible he (rightfully) takes over as a starter this season. But he falls in love with the 3-pointer much too much for LB's (and mine, if I'm honest) tastes.

Gerald Wallace(notes) is an all-around threat, but he needs help creating good shots. Vladimir Radmanovic(notes) had an impossible time creating much of anything as a Bobcat last season. Pressed into service, having to create his own shot attempts, Vladi struggled mightily. Why is this going to change in 2009-10? If anything, the Bobcats will rely on him even more this season.

Diaw? He's just unmoved, which is a shame, because he could be an All-Star with his gifts. Sagana Diop? Flip Murray(notes)? Good god.

I like Tyson Chandler a lot, and think he's All-Defensive material despite a lack of gaudy block and/or rebound numbers when he's healthy. But he's never healthy and nagging turf toe and back injuries just don't go away. So you're just going to get him to play a quarter of the games available, and he's going to play two-thirds of the game. Not someone you can rely on, sadly.

And they're stuck in a division that could have four 45-win teams.

So I guess it falls on Brown. Which is proper.

He knew what he was getting into when he went to Charlotte. He was getting into what he wanted in New York, at a third of the price. He was going to be able to essentially run the team with Michael Jordan out on the golf course, a model of usurpation that failed miserably in New York. It worked delightfully in Charlotte, but it also means he's shopping at the Dollar Store.

LB's got his power, his gravitas, his salary-cap helpers, but the team is for sale, it has no money, and it just downgraded its center from a stern B+ to a C+ just so it can save money in 2012.

If the Bobcats pass 30 wins again, especially with Bell out for four months, he deserves to be Coach of the Year. But he also deserves this lot. He made this bed.

Prediction: 19-63

Kelly Dwyer

Is Charlotte the most minor league franchise in the NBA?

As long as Michael Heisley owns the Memphis Grizzlies, probably not. And though Donald Sterling has a reputation for cheapness, his off-court machinations are more embarrassing than parsimonious. The Bobcats, right down to their NBDL-styled uniforms, "For Sale" sign on the window and ostensible boss in Michael Jordan, who appears to spend more time on the golf course than in front of game tape, just scream "rinky dink." This is an absolute shame, because the city of Charlotte has proven to be hoops mad. It's just been cursed with awful ownership.

— KD, Yahoo! Sports 2009-10 NBA Preview magazine

Rufus On Fire: "Every move the Bobcats have made in the past couple years, save the Chandler trade, has been designed to help make the playoffs. No more than that is expected. After Bell and Diaw came aboard last season, the team looked like the kind of squad that could top out at the six seed. However, the team's also got to be concerned about building for 2011 and beyond, not just this season. To that end, it seems to make sense to give Augustin, Henderson, Alexis Ajinca(notes) and Derrick Brown(notes) as much playing time as they can handle in order to figure out how much they'll contribute to the first truly successful Bobcats season. Unfortunately, Larry Brown's probably the last coach one would tap to give young players significant playing time." [more]

Queen City Hoops: "This team has no go-to guy for buckets — Gerald Wallace is a solid all-around player, but is not that guy. Boris Diaw has a unique skill set but not the temperament of a lead man. Raymond has been thrust into the role of go-to guy for the last couple of years, but his numbers show that the role is not for him. However, D.J. Augustin has shown flashes of being a dynamic scorer with a sniper's efficiency from outside — but can he create enough for his teammates? His assist numbers were nothing special last year. Flip Murray, as mentioned previously, knows how to get shots - but as a sparkplug off the bench: Can he do it for even longer stretches of the game? Lot of questions for the Bobcats on offense and no answers yet." [more]

The Baseline: "I do not get a good feeling about this team's point guard situation. At one point — as in, a few months into 2005-06 — I found myself thinking "Felton's a distant third to Paul and Williams, but third nonetheless." Now, it seems more and more like he's darn lucky, through an accident of history, to still get discussed in those terms. Look, Felton has pluses and he has minuses, and he's not an awful, irresponsible player per se. He just only does so much, sees so much, protects the ball and holds the team together so often. Felton is a limited point guard with enough talent to always deserve some time out on the floor; in short, a backup. And yet, the Bobcats just inked him to a one-year deal, I guess because he's planning to cash in next summer. Good luck there." [more]

My Morning Jacket, "Wordless Chorus"

Simply put, I don't really know what the Charlotte Bobcats are all about. They're kind of in a youth movement, but they're kind of past that. I guess? I don't know. The Bobcats just confuse me. And they don't really have anyone to build around. Gerald Wallace is sort of their franchise guy, but he's the least franchise-y franchise guy in the league. And they drafted Gerald Henderson, the least exciting hyperathletic player in this year's draft. So yeah, go Bobcats?

— Trey Kerby, The Blowtorch

The Bobcats boast a favorite of many fantasy owners (Gerald Wallace), one of the game's most versatile lines (Boris Diaw) and one of it's most promising young players (D.J. Augustin). Wallace made a number of lifelong fans during his 05-06 season (2.5 steals, 2.1 blocks), and most are happy with the exchange he's made since then - fewer blocks in order to extend his career by a number of years. He still delivers defensive stats in high volumes and enough offense to be considered at the end of Round 1. Diaw's counting stats after coming over to the Bobcats last season speak volumes: 15.1 points, 1.2 threes, 5.9 boards, 4.9 assists and 1.7 steals-plus-blocks. His free-throw shooting and high turnovers leave a bit to be desired, but he's a very solid target in Round 7. Raja Bell's injury means that Augustin should see near-starter's minutes moving forward. A few stats to note: Augustin matched Steve Nash's(notes) 3-point shooting exactly last season (108 of 246, 44%) in almost 500 fewer minutes; and he went to the free-throw line just 17 fewer times than Derrick Rose(notes), despite nearly 1,000 fewer minutes.

Raymond Felton has posted a nearly identical line in three consecutive seasons. There's not a lot of upside or downside from where you grab him in Round 9, but he's not a bad pick if you can deal with his poor shot percentage. Tyson Chandler's titanic struggles last season have banished him to the end of most drafts, but he was playing hurt when he did manage to take the court and he averaged 12 boards per game in the two season's prior. While it's anyone's guess as to how many games he'll manage in 2009-10, there is little risk associated with the current ninth-round asking price. Bell's injury also means free-agent signee Flip Murray should see regular minutes at shooting guard, but he's not rosterable in standard leagues.

— Matt Buser, Yahoo! Sports Fantasy Basketball / BuserSports.com

Sign up now for Fantasy Basketball '09.

MJ: What do you mean Raja Bell is out 4 months with a partially torn ligament in his wrist? What do I care? He's still in Phoenix, no? #golf
about 23 hours ago from web

*******

Atlantic Divison: Celtics | Nets | Knicks | 76ers | Raptors
Southwest Division: Mavericks | Rockets | Grizzlies | Hornets | Spurs
Central Division: Bulls | Cavaliers | Pistons | Pacers | Bucks
Northwest Division: Nuggets | Wolves | Thunder | Blazers | Jazz
Southeast Division: Hawks

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29 Comments

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  1. Travis
    1. Posted by Travis Thu Oct 22, 2009 7:01 pm EDT

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    Love Gerald Wallace's game. I DO think he can be a primary scoring threat in the right system, and Brown doesn't have that going on right now. Further, Felton won't let that happen. Felton has very little self-awareness. The guy still thinks he's a superstar -- he's really an undersized shoot-first guard who doesn't play defense and is a negative locker room presence. This team would pick up a handful of additional wins by going with Augustin and trading Felton.
    Sigh. Anyway, here's hoping Wallace has a good season and isn't the recipient of any Bynum cheap shots this year.
  2. Travis
    2. Posted by Travis Thu Oct 22, 2009 7:02 pm EDT

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    And hey, no mention of Gerald Henderson? A lot of people are really high on the guy, but I have no idea how he's doing so far in Charlotte. I think this group will break 20 wins. ...what an awful thing to have to ponder.
  3. dmbmij82
    3. Posted by dmbmij82 Thu Oct 22, 2009 7:10 pm EDT

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    for someone who claims to love the game so much, you sure do sound awfully sad and bitter just about every time you write something. why are you so bitter.
    when you shoot 44% behind the arc, it's probably a good thing that you want to shoot from there. How is that even a criticism. instead of saying he shoots too much from there for the "liking", you could maybe say the guy is a gifted shooter behind the arc. but no, you must put a negative spin to it.
  4. theunknown
    4. Posted by theunknown Thu Oct 22, 2009 7:17 pm EDT

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    if that tweet is legit
    MJ should be fired for someone who actually cares about basketball nowadays
  5. BobcatsD
    5. Posted by BobcatsD Thu Oct 22, 2009 7:18 pm EDT

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    #1 Travis - kudos for mentioning the Bynum cheap shot! I hope that doesn't happen again because it's uncalled for, and it's probably one of the minor reasons the Cats didn't make the playoffs last season.
    Skeets, I'm on board with you most of the time, but this time I will have to respectfully disagree. I didn't expect you'd put the Bobcats in the playoffs like I did, even before the draft happened back in June, but I thought you'd at least give us 30 games! To each his own. I still respect you and won't blast you like some idiots who call for your immediate dismissal from the Yahoo! Sports blogosphere. I just hope that we can prove you wrong come April 2010!
    Have a good one, and keep these predictions coming!
  6. YGM
    6. Posted by YGM Thu Oct 22, 2009 7:27 pm EDT

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    hot girl keep it up, posting cheerleader pics like that
  7. BobcatsD
    7. Posted by BobcatsD Thu Oct 22, 2009 7:34 pm EDT

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    Sorry Skeets, you corrected me just now that it was KD who showed no love for the Cats. I still respect you both.
    But I still stand by my offseason pick for Charlotte to get that 8th seed. It'll be tougher than last year, but I think we finally have the pieces to do so and a heartbreaking fall end of last season.
  8. Travis
    8. Posted by Travis Thu Oct 22, 2009 7:49 pm EDT

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    Agreed. We should remember that this team did almost make the playoffs last year (albeit in a very shallow Eastern Conf.). I don't really think that's realistic this year, unfortunately. And right or wrong, I put a lot of losses on Felton's head. Not a smart player, not doing anything productive for this team.
    Maybe Crash Wallace throws one down on Bynum this year. That's as good as 5 Bobcats wins in my book.
  9. Ross
    9. Posted by Ross Thu Oct 22, 2009 8:57 pm EDT

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    The division should be back up this year with Washington getting healthy and Orlando attempting to take it a step farther than last playoffs, but it's pretty much the same squad they have here with slight improvements from the draft. Okafor's inside game never developed and it seemed like most of his points came off dunks. He shrinks in games where he matches up with star centers, and he is scared to death to shoot outside of 4 feet from the basket. DJ will take the starting spot hopefully sooner than later. Maybe I'm a homer but I don't think there is anyway in hell they win less than 20 games. They would have been in the playoffs if Raja Bell doesnt get hurt at the end of the year and his only backups were Cartier Martin and putting Felton at the 2. At least Henderson can D up tall athletic SG. 19 gamessS???/
  10. Stevarino
    10. Posted by Stevarino Thu Oct 22, 2009 10:42 pm EDT

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    Only 19 wins? I don't think the Bobcats will be tearing up the East or anything but it's really hard for a team to win only 19 games.
  11. merwin_chris
    11. Posted by merwin_chris Fri Oct 23, 2009 2:58 am EDT

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    too much KD! 19 wins?
  12. sam spade
    12. Posted by sam spade Fri Oct 23, 2009 7:04 am EDT

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    I have to say that you do an excellent job with the cheerleaders. Every flavor is just awesome.
  13. Shawn W
    13. Posted by Shawn W Fri Oct 23, 2009 9:50 am EDT

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    If the Bobcats really want a chance this year they really need to start DJ. With Bell out which I think is a blessing cause he hasn't hit a shot all preseason.
    1- DJ he gives you the biggest chance of filling the basket up and take some pressure of GW
    2- henderson... all ive heard is how good his defense is... a young bell????
    3- wallace... he just needs to be his self and stay health
    4- diaw... this year needs to not pass the ball away as much... think about his own shots... he thinks pass first too much
    5- chandler... Stay healthy and listen to LB about learning some low post moves
    off the bench murry should be the 6th man so we can get some scoring
    felton... releave DJ when hes tired and he does play good defense
    from there there are a lot of ???? I think Nazi has show hes better than diop... but i think Alexis Ajinca will get some good PT at the 4. Vlady needs a kobe to make shots and we don't have one hes useless but alot better than morrison!!! I think truely they will be around at the end of the season fighting for that 8th spot.
    GO BOBCATS!!
  14. Jordo
    14. Posted by Jordo Fri Oct 23, 2009 10:31 am EDT

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    Tweet is very fake, they all are for these previews. I've laughed a a couple of them
  15. S
    15. Posted by S Fri Oct 23, 2009 10:38 am EDT

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    In order for Vlad to be effective they need to NOT mess with his head. If you get into Vlads head from get go, he loses his cool and his confidence. The man can play. Set up some plays for him, PLAY him and don't let him sit on the bench. Make him feel like a part of the team. That's how serbs work and that's how you will get a productive player. He's a damn good shooter, don't expect anything else. As far as others, cats looks decent. Sucks for raja and diaw needs to stop being selfish.
  16. K NEL
    16. Posted by K NEL Fri Oct 23, 2009 10:54 am EDT

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    I actually think Felton is better then what most think. He has his off games and his good games but I think he's solid. Him and Augustin are good. Henderson is slept on big time just like Derrick Brown. 30 wins for the Bobcats
  17. Jarvis
    17. Posted by Jarvis Fri Oct 23, 2009 11:24 am EDT

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    This team is only decent on 2K10. We understand MJ is the greatest ball player ever, but he's also the worst talent evaluater ever too. Bad decisions pile up. Go back to Kwame Brown. The Adam Morrison lottery pick REALLY set the Bobcats back.(Look at the players picked after Morrison!!!) This team seems doomed to fail. All they can hope for is to be competitive in games. I think they gave up on Okerfor too soon. The only way the Bobcats become relavent is if they fire MJ and sign to a 1yr deal. Other than that, Draft Lottery here we come!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  18. milky C
    18. Posted by milky C Fri Oct 23, 2009 2:02 pm EDT

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    The Bobcats will make the playoffs this year. 19 wins is retarculous.
  19. milky C
    19. Posted by milky C Fri Oct 23, 2009 2:03 pm EDT

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    The Bobcats will make the playoffs this year. 19 wins is retarculous.
  20. dmanjam
    20. Posted by dmanjam Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:40 am EDT

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    It's going to be a tough year for the Bobs. I remember when Vlade played for the Sonics, he's the most selfish player in the NBA now that Marbury is not playing. Honorable mention to Baron Davis. Hang in there Bobcat fans, at least you still have a team.
  21. Micheal
    21. Posted by Micheal Sat Oct 24, 2009 6:28 pm EDT

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    So...we are having rebounding issues? I am starting to feel worse and worse about MJ being talked outta taking the Tarheel kid this year. Hansbrough woulda given us some tough boards and hustle. Maybe even a bit of offense? Taking Gerald seems a bit better now that Raja is hurting, but still don't think he can help enough. Shooting guards that can't shoot are tough fits. Could we convince the Pacers to give us Tyler and Rush for Hendo and Vlad? how could we squeeze Granger out of them? haha that would be great. Anyone see Ty Lawson slice up LA last night?? Pretty impressive...I know, preseason, but he looked about two steps faster than anyone who stepped on that court. Is the frenchman gonna get any playing time? I have a bad feeling we will be lacking for scoring this year. Also, think Chandler will end up being an upgrade from past situations once he gets comfortable with his teammates.
  22. J Inyermug
    22. Posted by J Inyermug Mon Oct 26, 2009 3:40 pm EDT

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    Do the Bobcats know that David Stern and the rest of the NBA doesn't give 2 rats about them. If ain't Lebron or Kobe, the league don't care. (or the casual NBA fan)
  23. Patricia
    23. Posted by Patricia Mon Oct 26, 2009 6:36 pm EDT

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    The only good thing I can say about the Bobs is that they are more consistently competitive than in the past. however, it is like saying that my golf game has improved. I used to miss my putts by a foot or more. Now I only miss them by 8-10 inches. It looks better but I still lose. The Bobs look better than a year ago but going from pathetic to mediocre just don't cut it. I have no idea what can be done. As long as that idiot MJ is in charge the Bobs will consistently lose.

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Ball Don't Lie is an NBA blog edited by J.E. Skeets. Email him, and follow him on Twitter.

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