Ford 400
Who Will Win?
Busch
Kurt Busch: Two weeks ago, Kurt and Kyle Busch waged a sibling rivalry all race long for supremacy of Texas Motor Speedway. In the end, Kyle ran dry of fuel, while older brother Kurt cruised to the win. I expect the same type of performance from the brothers this week at Homestead, a track similar to Texas. Take your pick. I'm going with Kurt. – Ricky Craven
Mark Martin: I'm rolling the dice here, hoping that Martin can somehow wring one more great run out of the No. 5 car. A championship is all but impossible, but Martin will still need to run all out and hope that the 48 car struggles. He and Alan Gustafson have to be one of the major surprises of this year, having clicked so well so quickly, and while 2009 may not be their year, 2010 very well could be.. – Jay Busbee
Jeff Gordon: Jimmie Johnson will be a factor for the win Sunday, but the victory will go to Gordon at the one track left on the circuit where he hasn't won. Gordon hasn't necessarily struggled at Homestead-Miami Speedway. He actually has seven top 10s in nine starts there. He just hasn't won there. That will change Sunday, allowing Rick Hendrick to finish the season with one driver in victory lane and another hoisting the championship trophy. – Jay Hart
Three common thoughts among drivers heading into the final race of the year, by Ricky Craven
Craven
1. Let's end this year on a high note: Not all drivers have the excitement and potential reward of entering the season's final event with a chance of being champion. In fact, only two do. For all others, it's about finishing the year with a solid performance. From third to 35th, drivers have something to gain or preserve by finishing well in Miami. On top of that, they have the entire offseason to reflect on it.
2. Don't affect the battle for the title: Even though you may not be battling for this year's championship, you enter the final race well aware of the circumstances for those who are. Winning is your priority, and it dominates your thoughts and focus as it would any other week. But with one race remaining, you're also very conscientious of the circumstances surrounding Jimmie Johnson and Mark Martin, and you do not want to affect them negatively in any way. You will be most aware when you restart around the 48 or 5 car. No competitor would concede a win to the two doing battle, but no driver wants the burden of having impacted their possibility of a championship, either.
3. I am so looking forward to Thanksgiving: With the exception of 2001 when we raced on Thanksgiving weekend because of the September 11th attacks, this holiday has served as a finish line to the Cup season's end. Regardless of the circumstances, each driver (and all who travel in NASCAR) looks forward to Thanksgiving knowing they will have closed the book on another year and they can now enjoy their families without the distraction that accompanies the next race.
During my career, this November holiday became my favorite because it came as a much-needed break from what began way back in February. I'm sure it's no different today, and at some point this weekend each driver will have at least one occasion when they think, "I am so looking forward to Thanksgiving."
Top storyline
Martin
• There's one battle still that's up for grabs Sunday: Who will finish second? Mark Martin holds a 61-point lead over Jeff Gordon. If Martin finishes second, it would be his fifth runner-up finish, tying him with Richard Petty and Bobby Allison for the most all time. Can Martin hold off Gordon? – Jay Hart
• So it all comes down to this: two drivers, each with very different storylines, entering the final race with a chance to win the title. Jimmie Johnson needs to finish 25th or better to become the first NASCAR driver to win four straight championships. If he stumbles, 50-year-old Mark Martin would win his first title. Regardless of how it ends, these two have represented NASCAR very, very well in 2009. – Ricky Craven
• Look, we know this Chase is all but over, and while I don't want the 48 to wreck, I wouldn't mind seeing a crew guy kick a lug nut or whatever and make Johnson work for this championship. That said, one of the better underreported stories of the Chase has been how the Childress cars have been picking up steam after a poor regular season. Can Kevin Harvick, Clint Bowyer, Jeff Burton and Casey Mears put together one more push and head into the offseason with at least something salvaged from this year? If the last few races are any indication, they're going to be running near the front. – Jay Busbee
From The Source
Jimmie Johnson: "The safest place on the track is up front. If we can lead the race, that's the best position to be in. If not, the top three to five. … From 10th or 15th on back, it is so cut-throat, I mean, everybody is just messing with one another, from aero situations, pinning each other down, even some light contact. That is not where I want to be."
