Waving the Checkers: Pocono

At one point late in Monday's Pennsylvania 500, Denny Hamlin, while running outside the top five, came on the radio and said, "I'm winning this race!"

This statement represents the highest level of confidence and is what I refer to as "racing with authority." But it was also from a driver coming into the 21st race of the season … winless.

Where does this confidence come from?

Expectations are often associated with prior performance. Statistically, Pocono has been a very good track for Hamlin.

Drivers feel more confident at a place where they’ve had success. Do you need a great car, a great crew, and a great engine? Absolutely. If you have all three, then you will only increase your odds of winning.

This doesn't guarantee a win, because at least a dozen other drivers on any given week have the same advantage. That’s how close these teams are. But often, the difference between winning or losing a Sprint Cup Series race comes down to attitude: who wants it the most, and how much you’re willing to give to get it.

Hamlin’s win certainly came at a price for David Reutimann. While I am in no way condoning the bump off Turn 3, where David's day ended, it certainly served as an indicator that we might be seeing a more determined Hamlin than we are used to seeing.

This isn't to suggest Hamlin has not been capable of winning this year, because he has, several times, in fact. But in none of those events did you see this level of disregard for someone between him and the lead.

I am of the opinion that every driver has a reserve, a little extra, but may not know how to reach it. I guarantee you, there are drivers in the field with cars capable of winning races with drivers equally capable of steering their way to victory lane, but they did not discover that reserve Hamlin brought to the track Monday.

Was it the extra emotion he carried from the loss of his grandmother earlier in the week, or the fact Pocono raceway has provided a home-court feel ever since he swept both events his rookie season? I believe it was both.

There are countless factors that determine who winds up in victory lane, often based on what happens from the time the teams' haulers pull into any given track on Thursday night to when the checkered flag flies. The preparation of cars, the engines and crews, strategy, the weather, past experience and even the amount of sleep a driver gets the night before play an obvious role in who will win and who will not.

But there are also unrecognizable factors, like the confidence a driver may have that particular day, the belief that prompts him to come on the radio and say, "I'm winning this race!"

Now Hamlin sits a solid fifth in the Sprint Cup Series standings. His chances of winning his first title this year are better today than they were a week ago.

I believe the chances of that happening will have less to do with the quality of cars, engines or experience, because Hamlin has all of those ingredients. In my opinion, winning a title will depend more on his ability to approach each of the 10 Chase races the same way he approached Monday's Pennsylvania 500.