Chase Watch: Bowyer vs. Martin
With five races to go before the Chase field is set, 11 of the 12 spots are all but secured. That said, this is racing – meaning anything can happen. One wreck by Matt Kenseth, who sits in ninth, could move him right back onto the bubble.
But as of now, the fight for the final spot is between Clint Bowyer in 12th and Mark Martin lurking in 13th. Just 34 points separate the two, and while Bowyer has the edge in points, Martin has the overall advantage at the five remaining tracks.
Every Wednesday, Yahoo! Sports breaks down those drivers who remain on the Chase bubble. Heading into Sunday's Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips 400 at The Glen at Watkins Glen International, here's how the list shakes out:
[NOTE: The estimated average finish needed is based on the points total each driver needs in order to match the average number of points the 12th-place driver earned after Race No. 26 in the 2007-09 seasons.]
9. Matt Kenseth
Points vs. 13th: +152
Average finish at remaining tracks: 13.8
Best remaining track: Michigan International Raceway (10.0)
Worst remaining track: Richmond International Raceway (17.0)
Watkins Glen average: 16
Estimated average finish needed: 23rd
Comment: Though he maintains a sizable lead over 13th, one slip and Kenseth is in trouble. Why? Right now Kenseth doesn't need top 10s to make the Chase, but that could change if he suffers a wreck or mechanical failure. And top 10s would be a tall order considering he hasn't scored a single one in more than two months.
10. Carl Edwards
Points vs. 12th: +136
Average finish at remaining tracks: 12.3
Best remaining track: Michigan International Raceway (6.6)
Worst remaining track: Richmond International Raceway (17.5)
Watkins Glen average: 8.8
Estimated average finish needed: 21st
Comment: The odd thing is that while Kenseth limps toward the playoff, his teammate Edwards is starting to show some signs of life. Edwards is still a long way from where he was in 2008 when he went the distance with Jimmie Johnson, but he's a lot closer to that form now than he was two months ago.
11. Greg Biffle
Points vs. 13th: +122
Average finish at remaining tracks: 16.0
Best remaining track: Bristol Motor Raceway (11.0)
Worst remaining track: Watkins Glen International (25.3)
Watkins Glen average: 25.3
Estimated average finish needed: 20th
Comment: Biffle is in a very similar position as Edwards, maybe even better as he comes off a win at Pocono. Watkins Glen, where he hasn't been very good, is the last remaining hurdle for Biffle. If he can get through this weekend, it should be clear sailing right into the Chase.
12. Clint Bowyer
Points vs. 13th: +34
Average finish at remaining tracks: 16.3
Best remaining track: Richmond International Raceway (10.2)
Worst remaining track: Michigan International Speedway (21.2)
Watkins Glen average: 15.5
Estimated average finish needed: 14th
Comment: Bowyer is going to have to earn his spot in the Chase, because Mark Martin is not going to go away. The good news for Bowyer is that he has the team and ability to outduel the future Hall of Famer over the next five races, that is if he can get through the next two races (at his two worst tracks between now and the Chase) without flaming out.
13. Mark Martin
Points vs. 12th: -34
Average finish at remaining tracks: 12.4
Best remaining track: Watkins Glen International (7.8)
Worst remaining track: Atlanta Motor Speedway (17.3)
Watkins Glen average: 7.8
Estimated average finish needed: 12th
Comment: Martin keeps insisting that his team is improved, but if they are, they aren't showing it. His seventh-place finish at Pocono was his first top 10 since May 30. History is on his side in his head-to-head battle with Clint Bowyer. However, this season's performance points to Bowyer.
Points vs. 12th: -129
Average finish at remaining tracks: 14.9
Best remaining track: Bristol Motor Speedway (11.4)
Worst remaining track: Watkins Glen International (22.6)
Watkins Glen average: 22.6
Estimated average finish needed: 7th
Comment: The numbers don't look good for Junior. He's more than 100 points out, has only a decent average finish at the five remaining tracks between now and the Chase and his performance as of late has been mediocre at best. Three straight finishes of 23rd or worse will likely doom his playoff hopes.
15. Ryan Newman
Points vs. 12th: -138
Average finish at remaining tracks: 16.8
Best remaining track: Richmond International Raceway (11.4)
Worst remaining track: Michigan International Speedway (19.4)
Watkins Glen average: 16.9
Estimated average finish needed: 6th
Comment: Newman is sort of running in place right now. He's not losing a ton of ground to the drivers ahead of him, but he's not making up any, either. And in looking at the numbers, it appears he'll finish right where he is now.
16. Kasey Kahne
Points vs. 12th: -168
Average finish at remaining tracks: 17.8
Best remaining track: Michigan International Speedway (15.2)
Worst remaining track: Bristol Motor Speedway (21.1)
Watkins Glen average:16.4
Estimated average finish needed: 5th
Comment: Kahne needed to finish better than 19th at Pocono to maintain a legitimate shot. Better luck next year, Kasey, assuming you have a ride.
17. Jamie McMurray
Points vs. 12th: -172
Average finish at remaining tracks: 16.5
Best remaining track: Michigan International Raceway (19.3)
Worst remaining track: Watkins Glen International (25.3)
Watkins Glen average: 20.1
Estimated average finish needed: 5th
Comment: While the Ganassi teams lacks nothing when it comes to horsepower, it does them little good in terms of points when it comes to consistency. Between them, McMurray and teammate Juan Pablo Montoya have scored back-to-back top 10s only twice this season, and both of those were from JPM in a three-week span.
