UFC rematches no sure thing

When Lyoto Machida defends his Ultimate Fighting Championship light heavyweight title against Mauricio "Shogun" Rua on Saturday night at the Bell Centre in Montreal, it will mark the 29th time in the 17-year history of the company that main event-level stars will be rematched.

And if there's one thing to be learned from looking back at history, it is that the odds are great that the second fight will be nothing like the first.

In the 28 previous second matches between two fighters where at least one of the fights was an event headliner, the results show just how unpredictable the sport is at the top level. The winner of the original fight has won the rematch 13 times, lost 13, and two were draws.

One of those draws was in the first major rematch in company history, and the most talked about series of matches in the early days of the company.

Royce Gracie choked out Ken Shamrock in just 57 seconds at UFC 1 on November 12, 1993, as part of a tournament.

Their rematch, on April 7, 1995, which was to determine UFC's first singles champion, billed at the time as the "Superfight" title (the current heavyweight championship held by Brock Lesnar) went 36:06, the longest fight in UFC history, before it was called off and ruled a draw. At the time, the sport was in its infancy, matches were usually quick and always conclusive. There were no judges at the time, because there had been no need for judges. Had the match been judged, Shamrock would have likely gotten the nod.

Even in situations where fighters have repeated their wins, most often there is little similarity between the two fights. We've seen that exemplified most recently in the UFC-owned WEC, which has had two recent high-profile rematches, both of which saw the same person win both times.

Mike Brown twice stopped Urijah Faber in featherweight championship matches. The first, where Brown won the title on November 5, 2008, was a knockout in a fight that only lasted 2:23. The second, on June 7, 2009, was a five-round war, going to a decision, that was one of the best matches of 2009.

The reverse situation took place recently involving current WEC lightweight champion Ben Henderson and Donald Cerrone. Their first meeting, on October 10, 2009, saw Henderson win the interim lightweight title a close decision that it appeared the slight majority believed he should have lost, in a match that also finished high in nearly every match of the year poll. That fight saw Cerrone survive brutal ground and pound, while Henderson managed to survive a number of tight submissions that would have finished most men off.

Going into the rematch on April 24, this time with Henderson as the outright champion, having beaten Jamie Varner in the interim, the belief was it would pick up where that one left off, with a give-and-take battle with neither likely to finish the other. Instead, Henderson caught Cerrone right away with a tight guillotine, and Cerrone tapped in just 1:57.

A similar high-profile situation in UFC where the same person won both times, but the fights were altogether different, involved Forrest Griffin vs. Stephan Bonnar. Their original fight, on April 9, 2005, saw Griffin win a unanimous decision in a fight that could have gone either way, a back-and-forth slugfest that is now legendary in the sport. The rematch, on August 26, 2006, is barely remembered. It was a completely tactical fight, devoid of fireworks, which Griffin dominated with superior skill and footwork to take a decision.

There have been a few high-profile rematches that ended up similar to the original.

Chuck Liddell's 2002 and 2006 wins over Renato "Babalu" Sobral, both ending with a first-round knockout, fits into that category. Matt Hughes' two wins over Frank Trigg both ended via choke in the first round, and within seconds of each other, although the fights themselves were not similar.

Liddell's second and third fight with Randy Couture both ended up with knockout wins after Couture had won their original meeting. Liddell's 2004 and 2006 wins over Tito Ortiz had similar knockout finishes. Ortiz's second and third wins over a past-his–prime Ken Shamrock in 2006 were also similar, with the third lasting a few more minutes with the same inevitable conclusion. And Anderson Silva devastated Rich Franklin similarly in both of their middleweight title bouts.

But those are the exceptions.

The October 24, 2009, fight at the Staples Center in Los Angeles, with Machida (16-0) retaining his title via straight 48-47 scores over Rua (18-4) was, along with the 2007 match where Michael Bisping was awarded a split decision over Matt Hamill, one of the two most controversial judges decisions in the modern history of UFC.

It seems every close fight these days sets the Internet raging with cries of "robbery" and "worst decision ever." But the only two fights in which postshow polls on the Wrestling Observer website disagreed with the judges – Machida vs. Rua and Hamill vs. Bisping. And in both cases, the disagreement was resounding. In their first meeting, 80 percent believed Rua should have won the title, 11 percent believed Machida won, and 9 percent believed the fight was a draw. On press row, the overwhelming majority believed Rua won. There were reporters on deadline, before the decision was read, that had already started writing stories about Rua capturing the title.

Since that time, the controversy over who won has continued. UFC president Dana White, in a clip repeated on the Countdown show building up the rematch, went to Rua and told him he thought he'd won. Later, White said he rewatched the fight with UFC CEO Lorenzo Fertitta and both scored it 49-46 in favor of Rua.

The judges themselves only increased the controversy. Judge Cecil Peoples stated in an interview that judges don't look at leg kicks, Rua's best offensive weapon, which slowed Machida down late and saw him have to change his stance. Peoples said he didn't consider them because leg kicks "don't win fights," a statement that has been heavily criticized since several fighters have, in fact, won via leg kicks.

Nelson "Doc" Hamilton, another judge, who has campaigned for the judges to have monitors stationed at ringside, said that after watching a tape of the fight, he believes Rua won.

"There was a round in that fight [Round 4] where my line of sight while they were standing was blocked," Hamilton said. "Because of the angle where most of the round was fought, I couldn't see the punches and whether they were landing. If the fight had been on the ground, I could look at the big screens, but this was a fight where the blows were coming one at a time, and you don't want to look away and miss an important blow."

When the fight was over, White immediately addressed the media, saying he believed the wrong guy won, and wanted an immediate rematch to clear up any controversy over who was the deserving champion. Machida underwent surgery on his left hand a week after the fight, which delayed the rematch until this Saturday. His camp said he went into the fight with the injury.

The closest historical similarity to Machida vs. Rua was a heavyweight title controversy in 2001.

On May 4, 2001, Couture won a unanimous decision over Pedro Rizzo in one of the great fights in UFC history. In a back-and-forth fight, the bell saved Rizzo in the first round from what looked like a sure finish.

It probably saved Couture in the second round. Couture was also on the verge of defeat at the end of the fifth round. Rounds three and four saw two exhausted fighters, battling like wounded animals trying to survive.

Rizzo inflicted more overall damage, but Couture probably won three of the five rounds. Unlike Rua vs. Machida, where many considered it a robbery, this was a close fight that reasonably could have been scored either way. On the air, announcer Frank Shamrock, when the decision was read, questioned what fight the judges were watching, and UFC matchmaker Joe Silva said he believed Rizzo had won the fight.

Due to that controversy, like this situation, UFC ordered an immediate rematch six months later. But in the second fight, Couture dominated from start to finish and garnered a TKO victory in 1:38 of the third round.