Strikeforce rolls the dice on Fedor

There are more questions than answers from Monday's announcement that Strikeforce, Showtime and M-1 Global have reached an agreement to co-promote a series of events headlined by Fedor Emelianenko.

Jacob Shaap of M-1 Global confirmed the Strikeforce deal gives the company the exclusive rights to promote Emelianenko's fights in North America. The first such event will take place sometime in the fall and air on Showtime. In exchange, M-1 Global gets the overseas rights to market the shows.

The announcement was the latest shocker in a chain of events over the past couple of weeks, which included the collapse of the Affliction MMA promotion, to which the Russian heavyweight was contracted, and fruitless negotiations with the industry-leading Ultimate Fighting Championship.

This would seem to lock the door on any chances for the time being of Emelianenko fighting UFC heavyweight titleholder Brock Lesnar, which would have been the biggest money fight of his career. Negotiations with the UFC fell through last week after an impasse over Emelianenko’s side demanding to be 50 percent business partners with UFC in such a match.

In the short-term, the decision looks like stepping over dollars for pennies, as, based on the UFC's contract offer, Emelianenko would have received somewhere in the neighborhood of $3 million for a Lesnar fight in the event the fight was an unlikely flop on PPV. If the fight did similar numbers to last month's record-setting UFC 100, Emelianenko likely would have received $6 million when pay-per-view bonuses were factored in. He was also offered a similar range of figures for future fights in the organization.

Showtime offers its MMA events on pay-per-view in the U.S., but they don’t do significant business numbers because most people who want to see the their mixed martial arts card will subscribe to Showtime, which is less expensive than buying the event a la carte. There is some pay-per-view revenue from Canada, where Showtime doesn’t air, but thus far that has also been minimal.

"I am looking forward to going back to work and fighting at the highest level," said Emelianenko, in a statement that many would question given the difference in the Strikeforce and UFC heavyweight rosters. "Strikeforce is a top fight promotion that houses some of the greatest fighters in the world. I am prepared to fight any of them."

Not as impressed, no surprise, is UFC president Dana White, currently in the United Arab Emirates trying working on global expansion of the company.

"Fedor is a [expletive] joke," said White. "He turns down a huge deal and the opportunity to face the best in the world to fight nobodies for no money. I feel sorry for the real fight fans. I wanted to make the deal, but it takes two and it is very obvious Fedor doesn't want to fight the best, and doesn't give a [expletive] about the fans.""

Strikeforce has three obvious potential Fedor opponents on its roster. Brett Rogers (10-0) is a big puncher who has finished every opponent quickly, but aside from his June 4 knockout win over former UFC heavyweight champion Andrei Arlovski in 22 seconds, is untested against major competition. Rogers had tried in vain to get slotted into the scheduled Aug. 1 Affliction main event against Emelianenko after Josh Barnett tested positive for steroids. Affliction decided to close shop instead.

Fabricio Werdum (11-4-1) is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu specialist who choked out Emelianenko’s younger brother, Aleksander, in a fight three years ago. He went 2-2 in UFC competition before being cut in October after being knocked out by Junior Dos Santos.

The Strikeforce champion and most interesting opponent is Alistair Overeem (29-11, 1 no-contest). Overeem, a longtime light heavyweight star has looked far more impressive as a heavyweight, since blowing up to 252 pounds on a 6-foot-5 frame. He’s unbeaten over the past two years and is currently out of action with a hand injury suffered in a bar fight in his native Amsterdam.

After the company's top three, the pickings get slim. The only other name heavyweight Strikeforce has under contract is Paul Buentello (27-10), who still has one fight left on his contract with the organization, but hasn’t fought there in nearly two years.

There are a tremendous amount of variables involved in Fedor's matchmaking. Emelianenko (30-1, 1 no-contest) will be considered by many insiders as the No. 1 heavyweight in the world probably for as long as he doesn’t lose, and no doubt Strikeforce and M-1 will bill him as the legitimate heavyweight champion until he loses.

At this point, none of those potential match-ups with Strikeforce would generate much general public interest and wouldn’t draw on pay-per-view in the U.S.

But there are several more factors in the long-term. Strikeforce's television contract includes options with CBS, which is in the same Viacom corporate umbrella as Showtime. If Emelianenko’s second fight is on CBS in a prime-time slot, he will get a measure of exposure in this country the likes of which he’s never come close to receiving. There is value in being considered by most as the best heavyweight, and of a second MMA organization having someone of his stature on its major events.

Both sides can benefit long-term from the visibility, and quite frankly, two years down the line, if Emelianenko has built up his name to the average sports fan in the U.S. during that period, there would be more interest, past just the hardcore audience, in seeing him face whomever the UFC champion is at the time. It could give him significantly more leverage with the UFC than he has now.

Fedor's six-year run since he beat Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira in Japan to become generally considered the best heavyweight in the world, is a time frame on top that nobody in the history of the sport can boast of. If you ask people in the industry who is the greatest fighter in history, regardless of weight class, more will mention his name than any other.

Fair or not, part of what Emelianenko will be remembered by, is that in 2009, as the sport reaches uncharted popularity levels, he turned down a huge money offer to face the top competition. Whether it’s ludicrous to suggest he’s afraid of Lesnar, fans are asking that question in droves, so it will always be part of the story of his career.

Ultimately, for the deal to pay off, Emelianenko will have to keep winning, and either draw strong network ratings or become a pay-per-view attraction. Emelianenko has been a star in Japan for six years, headlining numerous big shows, but has never been a strong television ratings draw in that country. From a ratings standpoint, signing former UFC light heavyweight champ Tito Ortiz, who had been talking to Strikeforce but signed last week with UFC, would have been more valuable short-term because of his ability to promote fights and having more of a name value to draw the masses.

Last year's Elite XC-on-CBS experiment showed that when it came to drawing network ratings, an interesting character (Kimbo Slice) and a pretty face (Gina Carano) drew eyeballs. The promise of a great fight (Robbie Lawler-Scott Smith II after a great first fight) or seeing a highly ranked fighter (Jake Shields) flopped in prime time.

Can Emelianenko be marketed to draw people who otherwise wouldn’t watch MMA on television like Slice and Carano did? Pay-per-view requires not only Emelianenko's presence, but also a strong opponent that people believe will be a challenge, as well as strong promotion and a strong storyline. It’s imperative Emelianenko doesn’t lose in the interim, which would kill the most important thing he can be sold as to the big audience, which is that he is the real world champion.

It’s up to Strikeforce, Showtime and M-1 to also come up with an intriguing opponent who wins in impressive fashion on widely watched shows, to have a pay-per-view event that will draw past the hardcore audience.

If Strikeforce can do that, then today's announcement could lead to the solidification of a strong second player in the MMA game. If any of those elements don’t happen, we’ve already seen with Bodog Fight, PRIDE and Affliction the end result of co-promoting with M-1 and spending millions having the best fighter in the world in an off-brand promotion leads to. And that isn’t pretty.