Ortiz and others could leave the UFC

The May 24 match between Tito Ortiz and Lyoto Machida at UFC 84 from Las Vegas is among the most important matches of 2008.

Ortiz is a key component of a battle that ends with the last man left standing.

That battle isn't in a ring or a cage, but a business war for supremacy of the mixed martial arts industry.

Ortiz is the biggest of a host of name fighters whose UFC contracts will be expiring at a time in which a slew of new rival promotions are in desperate need of big-name fighters.

For groups such as Elite XC, which debuts soon on CBS, and Mark Cuban's HDNet Fights, the key to challenging the UFC's supremacy in the marketplace is having the right television exposure, the right stars, the right business sense and a degree of long-term planning and patience.

Tito Ortiz, one of UFC's biggest names, with Jenna Jameson at a February viewing party for "The Celebrity Apprentice."

(Rob Loud/Getty Images)

It is generally believed that barring a miracle reconciliation, Ortiz and UFC will part company when his contract expires. UFC will be gambling by airing Ortiz's match live on pay-per-view. Ortiz is a big enough name to help sell orders. The former UFC light heavyweight champion's contract calls for bonuses far beyond his $210,000 reported per-match figure, so the feeling is it's too much to pay without getting market value through heavily promoting his fight.

Machida should be favored to win the fight, but it's hardly a lock. It's a win the undefeated Machida needs if he's going to work into position for a shot at the light heavyweight title, and connect with an audience that has seen him win many times against lesser-known fighters, but has yet to react to him as a star.

But if Ortiz wins, he'll be a free agent at a time he's at the top of the list of the most famous mixed martial artists in the country, in a business with many potential suitors who are all in need of a recognizable star.

By himself, no one fighter is going to make a difference in a promotional war. But Ortiz, former heavyweight champion Andrei Arlovski, Josh Koscheck, Mike Swick and two-time former heavyweight champion Tim Sylvia all have contracts that have either run out or are close to expiration. Losing most at the same time will give the public the impression the UFC must not be the be-all and end-all of the industry, particularly if several are seen shortly on a major television station with a competing promotion.

Ortiz, if he can pull off the right kind of a win, and then walk, is as strong a name to build around from a marquee standpoint as is out there, having headlined the two biggest pay-per-view events in history. He's been plagued by back problems for nearly five years, and Machida will be a real test of what he still has in the tank.

There may be plenty of fighters as good as Ortiz, but only two current fighters, Chuck Liddell and Randy Couture, have his star power and name value. When building a company, that means a whole lot more than having ranked fighters that the general public has never heard of on your roster.

None of the other four are locks to be re-signed either. Koscheck has publicly stated he wants to stay. UFC has offered him a substantial raise from the $10,000 base pay with a $10,000 winning bonus he was getting from the long-term deal he was given in 2005 when he was an unknown fighter signing to do the Ultimate Fighter reality show. But a better offer could come from elsewhere.

Andrei Arlovski (L) fights Fabricio Werdum of Brazil in an April, 2007 heavyweight bout at Manchester, England.

(Gary M. Prior/Getty Images)

Swick faces an altogether different situation. While he beat Josh Burkman by decision in his last fight in January, he fought tepidly and the fight was terrible. He is the third of three fighters from the same American Kickboxing Academy team in UFC's welterweight division, with Koscheck and current No. 1 contender Jon Fitch. None of the three will fight each other, which makes keeping all three a potential problem. Of the three, Swick would be the lowest on the priority list.

Negotiations haven't gotten close with Arlovski, who is seen as a star by the UFC audience, and is a fighter one would think every U.S. promotion would be interested in as an athletic heavyweight with great takedown defense and good hands. But fans have waited more than two years for the return of the Arlovski who destroyed people in 2004 and 2005. That fighter hasn't been seen since he was brutally knocked out by Sylvia at UFC 59.

Sylvia, on the other hand, has never been popular with the UFC audience, but has been a fixture on top of the heavyweight division for five years.

UFC is attempting to replenish the heavyweight division by building around three projects, all decorated college wrestlers, Brock Lesnar, Cain Velasquez, an Arizona State All-American who debuts on April 19, and Shane Carwin, a Division II national champion who starts on May 24.

Last year brought three major players, the IFL, Elite XC and Bodog Fight, all of whom burned through tens of millions of dollars. IFL had a weekly Monday night television show in prime time nationwide on Mynetworktv, but didn't have or make the right stars, nor did they seem to have long-term planning. IFL no longer has that TV outlet and they have completely revamped their presentation.

Elite XC had a deal with Showtime, bought smaller promotions all over the world, and with a CBS prime time television deal have a shot at making a great impact this year. Bodog had a television show on Ion that nobody watched, spent millions in advertising, failed on pay-per-view, lost their TV and are no longer even running shows.

This year's key new players include Mark Cuban's HDNet Fights, looking to become a major player by using MMA as a key sport in building a new television station and seemingly having the best chance of promoting the elusive Fedor Emelianenko vs. Randy Couture fight. Affliction, the makers of the T-shirts that are a fixture in the world of MMA, is starting a company tentatively scheduled to debut in June, and is making a big play for a number of free agents, reportedly making big offers to the likes of Matt Lindland (who has signed with them), Josh Barnett and Ben Rothwell among others, for non-exclusive contracts and numbers far beyond what they would be earning in UFC.

Cuban has stated many times he's not interested in getting into a bidding war over the top talent. UFC has not talked publicly, but privately, their philosophy based on recent negotiations is to also not get caught up in bidding wars for talent.