Ranking the contenders to earn a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament
The race for a No. 1 seed has seldom been more wide-open than it is this year.
Kansas likely has the NCAA tournament's No. 1 overall seed secured entering the start of the Big 12 tournament, but as many as nine other teams are still in contention for the other three spots on the top line less than less than a week before Selection Sunday.
Virginia has the most quality wins of anyone besides the Jayhawks, but the Cavaliers have lost to four teams outside the RPI top 50. Xavier and Villanova both have gaudy records, but their best wins are against one-another. Michigan State, North Carolina, Oregon and Oklahoma are among the handful of other teams also in the mix.
1. KANSAS (26-4, 15-3, RPI 1, KenPom 2)
Vs. RPI Top 100: 18-3
Vs. RPI Top 50: 14-3
Vs. RPI Top 25: 9-3
Sub 100 losses: 1 (at Oklahoma State)
Best wins: Oklahoma (2), Texas (2), Kentucky, West Virginia, Iowa State
Losses: Michigan State, at West Virginia, at Iowa State, at Oklahoma State
Are they a No. 1 seed? Not only is Kansas a No. 1 seed, Jayhawks are also a virtual lock to be the NCAA tournament's No. 1 overall seed. They won the nation's toughest conference by two games, they have the most RPI top 25 victories in the country and they've only suffered one loss to a team outside the top 20. Even if Kansas were to somehow lose early in the Big 12 tournament, it would be difficult for anyone else to eclipse the Jayhawks' resume. Oklahoma and Virginia are the only teams who could match Kansas in RPI top 25 wins in that scenario by winning their respective conference tournaments, but the Cavaliers still would have four losses outside the RPI top 50 and the Sooners still would be 0-2 against the Jayhawks head-to-head.
2. VIRGINIA (24-6, 13-5, RPI 2, KenPom 1)
Vs. RPI Top 100: 14-6
Vs. RPI Top 50: 9-2
Vs. RPI Top 25: 7-2
Sub 100 losses: 0
Best wins: Villanova, North Carolina, West Virginia, Cal, Miami, Louisville (2)
Losses: at Duke, at Miami, at George Washington, at Virginia Tech, at Florida State, at Georgia Tech
Are they a No. 1 seed? Virginia is the only No. 1 seed contender with a set of marquee victories that approaches Kansas' collection. The Cavaliers have defeated seven current AP Top 25 teams including fellow top seed contenders Villanova, North Carolina, West Virginia and Miami. Where Virginia's profile weakens is with some of the losses it has taken. Four of the Cavaliers' six losses have come against teams outside the RPI top 50. Virginia currently has a stronger resume and a head-to-head win over North Carolina, but the Tar Heels won the outright league title. It's tough to imagine two ACC teams getting No. 1 seeds, so this may come down to which team advances farther in this week's conference tournament.
3. VILLANOVA (27-4, 16-2, RPI 3, KenPom 4)
Vs. RPI Top 100: 14-4
Vs. RPI Top 50: 8-4
Vs. RPI Top 25: 1-3
Sub 100 losses: 0
Best wins: Xavier, Seton Hall (2), at Providence, at St. Joseph's, Butler (2)
Losses: Oklahoma, at Xavier, at Virginia, Providence
Are they a No. 1 seed? No team in the country has fewer losses than Villanova, which won a third straight Big East title by two games this season. The Wildcats will likely be a No. 1 seed if they follow that up by winning the Big East tournament, but things could get dicey for them if they fall early or even if they're beaten by Xavier in the title game. One issue for Villanova is that Xavier is the only RPI top 25 team the Wildcats have beaten this season. The other is that they have one-sided losses to fellow No. 1 seed contenders Oklahoma and Virginia. That could be held against Villanova if it can't win three games in three days this week.
4. OKLAHOMA (24-6, 12-6, RPI 5, KenPom 7)
Vs. RPI Top 100: 13-6
Vs. RPI Top 50: 9-5
Vs. RPI Top 25: 6-5
Sub 100 losses: 0
Best wins: Villanova, West Virginia (2), Texas, Iowa State, Baylor (2)
Losses: Kansas (2), at Iowa State, at Texas, at Texas Tech, at Kansas State
Are they a No. 1 seed? Oklahoma did not close the season as well as it had hoped, but the Sooners still have a shot at No. 1 seed despite dropping four of their past nine games. They have nine victories over RPI top 50 opponents, six against RPI top 25 opponents and head-to-head wins over West Virginia and Villanova. The road to the Big 12 tournament title is a daunting one for Oklahoma, which opens against Iowa State and then could face West Virginia and Kansas were it to continue to advance. If Oklahoma endures that gauntlet and wins the Big 12 tournament, it will be a No. 1 seed. If it falls short, it could slip to a No. 2 depending on results in the other conference tournaments.
5. MICHIGAN STATE (26-5, 13-5, RPI 13, KenPom 3)
Vs. RPI Top 100: 11-4
Vs. RPI Top 50: 6-4
Vs. RPI Top 25: 4-3
Sub 100 losses: 0
Best wins: Kansas, Maryland, Louisville, Indiana, Wisconsin, at Michigan
Losses: Iowa (2), at Wisconsin, at Purdue, at Nebraska
Are they a No. 1 seed? Ask college coaches which team they would want to avoid in the NCAA tournament, and Michigan State might be the most popular answer. The Spartans may be this season's most complete team and they're playing their best basketball entering March, having reeled off 10 wins in their past 11 games. The problem for Michigan State is that it doesn't necessarily have the resume of a No. 1 seed yet even if it's playing well enough to earn one. The Spartans didn't win their league outright, they have fewer RPI top 50 wins than other fellow No. 1 seed contenders and they have a bad loss to Nebraska. Therefore they may need to win the Big Ten tournament to bolster their argument.
6. OREGON (24-6, 14-4, RPI 4, KenPom 14)
Vs. RPI Top 100: 19-5
Vs. RPI Top 50: 10-3
Vs. RPI Top 25: 3-1
Sub 100 losses: 1 (at UNLV)
Best wins: Utah (2), Cal, at Arizona, Baylor, at Colorado, USC (2)
Losses: at Cal, at Colorado, at Oregon State, at Stanford, at Boise State, at UNLV
Are they a No. 1 seed? An outright Pac-12 championship and 10 RPI top 50 victories gives Oregon a realistic chance of ascending to the top line of the bracket if it were to also capture its conference tournament title. In that scenario, the Ducks would most likely beat Arizona or Colorado in the semifinals and Utah or Cal in the championship game, giving them two more quality wins over NCAA tournament-bound teams. If the Ducks achieve that and other contenders fall in their conference tournaments, a No. 1 seed is a real possibility. If the Ducks fall in the Pac-12 tournament, a No. 2 or 3 seed is more likely.
7. XAVIER (26-4, 14-4, RPI 6, KenPom 15)
Vs. RPI Top 100: 12-3
Vs. RPI Top 50: 8-2
Vs. RPI Top 25: 2-1
Sub 100 losses: 1 (Georgetown)
Best wins: Villanova, Dayton, Seton Hall, Providence (2), USC, Butler (2)
Losses: at Villanova, at Seton Hall, at Creighton, Georgetown
Are they a No. 1 seed? Xavier's 8-2 record against the RPI top 50 is impressive, but the Musketeers are hurt by the fact that Villanova is the only marquee team they beat. Their best win besides that came against Dayton, Seton Hall or USC, NCAA tournament-bound teams to be sure but not Final Four contenders most likely. For Xavier to have a realistic shot at the first No. 1 seed in school history, the Musketeers probably have to not only win the Big East tournament but also beat Villanova in the title game to do it. If the Musketeers do that, you can make a strong case for them to ascend to the No. 1 line.
8. NORTH CAROLINA (25-6, 14-4, RPI 8, KenPom 5)
Vs. RPI Top 100: 13-6
Vs. RPI Top 50: 3-5
Vs. RPI Top 25: 3-4
Sub 100 losses: 0
Best wins: at Duke, Miami, Maryland, Pittsburgh, at Syracuse
Losses: at Virginia, at Louisville, at Texas, Duke, at Notre Dame, at Northern Iowa
Are they a No. 1 seed? For a team that won the ACC title outright, North Carolina doesn't have nearly as good a resume as one might expect. The only RPI top 50 teams the Tar Heels have beaten this season are Miami, Maryland and Duke. It's difficult to envision North Carolina not receiving a No. 1 seed if it follows up its ACC regular season title by winning the tournament as well, but the Tar Heels' case isn't nearly as strong if they fail to do that. At most, they would have four RPI top 50 wins in that scenario, which could open the door for Virginia or even Miami to earn a No. 1 seed from the ACC or for the league to get left off the top line altogether.
9. WEST VIRGINIA (24-7, 13-5, RPI 10, KenPom 6)
Vs. RPI Top 100: 11-7
Vs. RPI Top 50: 8-6
Vs. RPI Top 25: 5-6
Sub 100 losses: 0
Best wins: Kansas, Iowa State (2), Texas Tech (2), Baylor (2)
Losses: Virginia, at Kansas, Oklahoma (2), Texas (2), at Florida
Are they a No. 1 seed? West Virginia is in a similar position to fellow Big 12 power Oklahoma entering conference tournament play. The Mountaineers have a strong enough collection of quality wins that they could potentially play their way into the No. 1 seed hunt if they were to win the Big 12 tournament. If West Virginia went through three of the Big 12's other six-NCAA tournament bound teams to win the conference tournament, the Mountaineers would have a legitimate case to join Kansas on the No. 1 seed line. Anything short of that, however, and Bob Huggins' team is probably looking at a No. 2 or 3 seed.
10. Utah (23-7, 13-5, RPI 9, KenPom 25)
Vs. RPI Top 100: 17-7
Vs. RPI Top 50: 9-6
Vs. RPI Top 25: 3-4
Sub 100 losses: 0
Best wins: Duke, Cal, Arizona, Texas Tech, Colorado (2), at USC
Losses: Oregon (2), Miami, at Cal, at Wichita State, at Oregon State, at Stanford
Are they a No. 1 seed? Looking for a dark horse No. 1 seed contender? Look no further than the Utes, who have quietly cobbled together a surprisingly strong resume. They have no bad losses and more top 100 and top 50 victories than many of the teams above them here. If Utah doesn't win the Pac-12 tournament, this is a non-issue and it's a No. 2 or 3 seed at best. But if the Utes win out and a couple of other No. 1 seed contenders fall? Stranger things have happened.
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Jeff Eisenberg is the editor of The Dagger on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at daggerblog@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!
