Bubble breakdown: UCLA squanders huge chance at Arizona State
With less than a month remaining until Selection Sunday, the NCAA tournament bubble is beginning to take shape. Bubble Breakdown is the Dagger's daily look at the results that impact who's in and who's out.
Twice in the past 10 days, UCLA has gone on the road knowing a win would provide a very favorable path to a likely NCAA tournament bid.
Neither time have the Bruins managed to come through.
Less than two weeks after falling at mediocre Cal by two points, foul-plagued UCLA lost 68-66 at Arizona State on Wednesday night. Sophomore Savon Goodman outplayed the more highly touted Bruins frontcourt, scoring 20 points on 8-for-8 shooting and pulling down 12 rebounds to help rally the Sun Devils from an early 10-point deficit.
Had UCLA won, the Bruins (16-11, 8-6) probably could have earned an NCAA tournament bid simply by defeating lowly Washington, Washington State and USC at Pauley Pavilion, where no road team besides Gonzaga has won this season. Instead UCLA may need to either pull a huge upset in Tucson on Saturday night or make a run at the Pac-12 tournament.
What the Bruins have going for them is a strong schedule, a victory over Utah and a 3-1 record against fellow Pac-12 bubble teams Oregon and Stanford. What is hurting UCLA is that it didn't beat a single remotely relevant non-conference opponent and its record away from Pauley Pavilion is a ghastly 3-10.
A tepid season from UCLA is understandable given it lost three underclassmen to the NBA last spring and it has only eight scholarship players and three scholarship guards on the roster this season.
The Bruins have attained more relevance than most would have expected after they lost five straight in December and early January. Now it's up to them to prove they can win away from home and secure an NCAA tournament bid.
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BUBBLE TEAMS WHOSE STOCK ROSE WEDNESDAY
Xavier (17-10, 7-7 Big East): If Xavier sneaks into the NCAA tournament, the Musketeers may remember a key 3-pointer by Dee Davis during their 59-57 victory at Cincinnati on Wednesday night as a huge reason for it. Davis' 3-pointer with 52 seconds to go halted an 11-1 Bearcats run and helped Xavier escape with a big road victory in a game it led by 12 at halftime. Not giving away the win was critical for the Musketeers given their remaining schedule. While they'd probably be a No. 10 seed or so were the season to end today, they still have games left against Villanova, Butler and St. John's in Big East play in addition to a tricky road game against a Creighton team that's still playing hard. Even with Wednesday's victory, the Musketeers may need to win at least two of those four.
Colorado State (22-5, 9-5 MWC): Colorado State did something Wednesday night that fellow Mountain West powers San Diego State and Boise State couldn't do. The Rams won in Fresno, defeating the Bulldogs 81-73 behind 20 points from Daniel Bejarano and 16 from J.J. Avila. Avoiding a loss Wednesday night puts Colorado State in decent position entering the last four games of Mountain West play. Two of their games are at home against lowly San Jose State and Air Force. The other two are winnable road games against Nevada and Utah State. Three wins in those four games might be enough for Colorado State given its No. 28 RPI. The Rams own league wins against the Aztecs and Broncos at home and a slew of non-conference victories over quality mid-majors.
Boise State (19-7, 9-4 MWC): If the Mountain West gets a third team into the NCAA tournament besides San Diego State and Colorado State, Boise State has the strongest chance to join them. The Broncos won at UNLV 53-48 to spoil the night that the Rebels honored the memory of Jerry Tarkanian. Boise State's resume is similar to Colorado State's except its No. 44 RPI isn't as strong because the quality of the mid-majors it beat up on in November and December isn't as high. The Broncos have three home games left against New Mexico, Nevada and Fresno State, along with road games against last-place San Jose State and first-place San Diego State. Four wins in five games would give Boise State a shot. Five would get them into the field of 68 and earn them at least a share of the Mountain West title.
Miami (17-9, 7-6 ACC): Having already lost to Eastern Kentucky, Florida State, Georgia Tech and Wake Forest this season, Miami could not afford another bad loss. The Hurricanes avoided that by finally not playing down to the level of their competition Wednesday night, running lowly Virginia Tech off the floor, 76-52, in Coral Gables. A win over one of the ACC's worst teams isn't going to boost Miami's stock much, but it keeps the Hurricanes within striking distance of the bubble entering the final five games of the regular season. Though Miami has an outstanding win at Duke and a quality win over Illinois, the Hurricanes need to finish strong to secure a bid.
Tulsa (18-7, 11-2 AAC): Tulsa couldn't address its dearth of noteworthy wins Wednesday night. All the Golden Hurricane could do was avoid a disastrous loss. A 69-58 victory over American Athletic Conference lightweight East Carolina snapped Tulsa's two-game losing streak, kept the Golden Hurricane in sight of the bubble and cut first-place SMU's lead to just a half game. With an RPI of 51 and no notable victories except a January win at at Temple, Tulsa's fate will be determined over its last five regular season games. Matchups with Temple, Cincinnati and SMU remain for the Golden Hurricane, and they may need to win two of those to feel good about their chances entering the AAC tournament.
Rhode Island (18-6, 10-3 A-10): In a battle between two Atlantic 10 teams on the fringes of the bubble picture, Rhode Island edged closer to earning an NCAA bid and UMass fell further back in the pack. The Rams clobbered the visiting Minutemen 75-59 on Wednesday night, maintaining a share of first place in the Atlantic 10 along with preseason favorite VCU. Rhode Island is a bubble team in spite of its gaudy Atlantic 10 record because of its No. 68 RPI and its lack of marquee victories. The Rams' best victories are against Nebraska, George Washington and now UMass, none of which are good bets to make the NCAA tournament as of today. A March 3 game at Dayton looms large for Rhode Island because its lone remaining crack at a likely NCAA tournament team before the A-10 tournament.
Oregon (19-8, 9-5 Pac-12): The Ducks got a win they had to have Wednesday night given their challenging remaining schedule. They beat visiting Colorado 73-60, leaving them in striking distance of the bubble entering a season-ending stretch that begins with a home game against Utah and finishes with road tests at Stanford, Cal and Oregon State. Three wins would keep Oregon in contention entering the Pac-12 tournament given the Ducks' prior victories over Illinois and UCLA. Anything less than that and Dana Altman's team may need to win the Pac-12 tournament considering its RPI was a bloated 60 entering Wednesday.
BUBBLE TEAMS WHOSE STOCK FELL TUESDAY
Cincinnati (17-9, 8-5 AAC): Once well on its way to a return trip to the NCAA tournament, Cincinnati has slid back to the bubble with three straight losses to Temple, Tulane and Xavier. The loss to the Musketeers on Wednesday night was especially frustrating considering the Bearcats fought back from a 12-point halftime deficit to take a lead only to see their Crosstown rivals regain control. Cincinnati would probably still be in the field of 68 by virtue of quality wins over San Diego State, SMU, Temple and NC State, but its margin for error is rapidly diminishing. The Bearcats would be wise to snap this losing streak at Houston on Saturday and avoid anymore bad losses the rest of the season.
UMass (16-10, 9-4 A-10): Its six-game win streak snapped at the hands of Rhode Island, UMass faces an uphill climb to the NCAA tournament. An arduous non-conference schedule has helped the Minutemen stay in the RPI top 40, but the problem is they didn't win enough of those games. Victories over Dayton, Rhode Island, Florida State and Boston College are credible, but do they offset a 16-10 record? Probably not. That's why the Minutemen need to pile up victories in their last five regular season games, which include visits to VCU and George Washington.
George Washington (17-9, 7-6 A-10): The only thing keeping George Washington in the NCAA tournament discussion is a non-conference victory over Wichita State that continues to look strong. Aside from that and an overtime home win against Dayton, there's not a whole lot to like about the resume of a Colonials team that has lost five of six and had dropped to 76th in the RPI even before Wednesday's home loss to Davidson. Maybe George Washington would secure an at-large by winning out against a remaining schedule that includes UMass, Richmond and Davidson, among others. Otherwise the Colonials are probably going to have to do some damage in the Atlantic 10 tournament or settle for an NIT bid.
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Jeff Eisenberg is the editor of The Dagger on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at daggerblog@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!
