Big Ten preview: Powerful league seeks to end title drought
Yahoo Sports will break down the top 10 leagues for the upcoming college basketball season working backward from No. 10 to No. 1. Here's a look at our No. 2 league, the Big 10.
In the past three seasons, the Big Ten has never finished below first in conference RPI, landed a total of 19 teams in the NCAA tournament and sent a trio of teams to the Final Four.
The only goal the league has yet to fulfill is hoisting a national championship.
The last time the Big Ten celebrated as confetti fell from the ceiling of a domed stadium was way back in 2000 when Mateen Cleaves and the "Flint Stones" led Michigan State to a championship. Since then every other major conference has won a national title with the exception of the Pac-12, which last took home bragging rights when Mike Bibby and Miles Simon helped Arizona topple three No. 1 seeds in 1997.
If this is to be the year a Big Ten team breaks through, by far the most likely candidate would appear to be Wisconsin. Not only do the Badgers return every key player but one from last year's Final Four team, also no other Big Ten team begins the season ranked higher than No. 18 in the AP Top 25.
One reason Wisconsin has title-contending potential this season is because of the flexibility Bo Ryan has depending on what the matchups dictate. To start most games, the Badgers will probably go with a three-forward look featuring All-American candidate Frank Kaminsky and Nigel Hayes in the frontcourt, Sam Dekker at his natural small forward spot and Traevon Jackson and Josh Gasser manning the two guard positions. Don't be surprised to see Ryan sometimes go small at key moments too with Dekker sliding over to power forward and promising sophomore Bronson Koenig entering the game to give Wisconsin a three-guard look.
Regardless of what lineup Ryan uses, Wisconsin should be one of the nation's most efficient offensive teams. The inside-outside prowess of the skilled Kaminsky and the strength and brawn of Hayes complement each-other perfectly, as does the slashing, cutting and off-ball movement that are Dekker's trademarks. Throw in Josh Gasser's outside shooting and the ability of Jackson and Koenig to create off the dribble, and the Badgers truly can beat opponents a myriad of ways.
Though Wisconsin took Bo Ryan to his first Final Four last season, the memory of how that trip to Dallas ended should provide plenty of motivation for this year's Badgers. Wisconsin fell to Kentucky when Aaron Harrison sank a game-winning 3-pointer over Gasser's outstretched arms in the final seconds.
The teams with the best chance to ascend to Wisconsin's level are perennial contenders Michigan, Michigan State and Ohio State and interloper Nebraska.
Michigan can contend if Caris Levert can continue his transformation from overlooked recruit, to impact player, to All-American candidate and other perimeter weapons emerge around him. The Wolverines need sophomore wing Zak Irvin and freshman forward Kameron Chatman to make an impact right away because they can't count on their frontcourt to score. With Mitch McGary in the NBA, Jon Horford at Florida and Jordan Morgan playing overseas, the most experienced big man on the roster is the 6-foot-7 Bielfeldt, who played all of 4.7 minutes per game as a junior.
Michigan State isn't the sure thing it typically is this season as a result of the departure of Gary Harris, Adreian Payne and Keith Appling from last year's Elite Eight team. To overcome that, the Spartans need Branden Dawson to inherit the role of go-to scorer, Denzel Valentine to thrive with increased responsibility and the duo of Travis Trice and LouRawls Nairn to collectively solidify the point guard spot.
For Ohio State, the fate of the season will be determined by whether its talented crop of newcomers can inject some badly needed offensive punch. Freshman wing D'Angelo Russell scored in bunches in high school and at the AAU level, while Temple transfer Anthony Lee should help solidify the frontcourt. Shannon Scott, Sam Thompson and Marc Loving each are also capable of doing more.
The second-tier Big Ten team with the least questions is probably Nebraska, which returns Big Ten player of the year candidate Terran Petteway, slashing wing Shavon Shields and most of the core of last season's breakthrough team. Adding Georgetown transfer Moses Abraham should also help, giving the Huskers a physical defensive presence in the paint to pair with finesse-oriented stretch forward Walter Pitchford.
Beyond that quintent, the Big Ten has several intriguing mid-tier teams capable of making a jump. Iowa has NCAA tournament potential if it can avoid the late-season swoon that derailed its season a year ago. Illinois can be a threat if it shoots better from the perimeter this season and finds some frontcourt options besides Nnanna Egwu. Minnesota returns three senior starters from last year's NIT champions. And Indiana has a wealth of perimeter weapons but no proven post players, limited experience and some disconcerting off-court distractions.
MAKING A LIST
Best shooter: Josh Gasser, Wisconsin. One reason why Wisconsin isn't too concerned about the graduation of sharpshooter Ben Brust is because the Badgers have another perimeter marksman who will stretch opposing defenses. Fifth-year senior shooting guard Josh Gasser sank 43.1 percent of his threes last season and 86.8 percent of his free throws, both best among returning Big Ten players.
Best playmaker: Yogi Ferrell, Indiana. The lone holdover from Indiana's 2013 Big Ten title team is also the league's premier point guard. Ferrell can score off the dribble or from behind the arc and has excellent court vision, a skill he should be able to make better use of this season with sharpshooters James Blackmon Jr. and Nick Zeisloft capable of knocking down catch-and-shoot shots. Ferrell may not average 17.3 points again this season, but his 3.9 assists per game should soar.
Best defender: Shannon Scott, Ohio State. Scott is one of three returning members of last season's Big Ten all-defense team along with shot-blocking Purdue center A.J. Hammons and Wisconsin perimeter stopper Josh Gasser. The Ohio State senior is the Big Ten's returning leader in steals per game and should help ensure the Buckeyes' perimeter defense doesn't slip far even with Aaron Craft having finally graduated.
Top NBA prospect: Caris Levert, Michigan. Having enjoyed a breakout season as a sophomore in a complementary role, Levert returns to Michigan as the team's go-to threat with Nick Stauskas, Mitch McGary and Glenn Robinson III all in the NBA. The 6-foot-7 shooting guard is a projected mid-first-round pick next June thanks to his excellent size, speed and length for his position, his quick first step to the basket and his ability to knock down open shots.
Best backcourt: Michigan. Levert is the headliner, but Michigan has other perimeter weapons capable of big seasons. Six-foot-6 wing Zak Irvin is a gifted 3-point shooter who should expand his game as Michigan leans on him more heavily this season. Derrick Walton is an excellent distributor, as is Spike Albrecht, who will be counted on to play a leadership role as well. And the wildcard is freshman Kameron Chatman, a 6-foot-7 wing who has the competitive make-up and skills to make an instant impact.
Best frontcourt: Wisconsin. The Badgers not only have excellent individual talent in the frontcourt but the pieces also fit together extremely well. Skilled Big Ten player of the year candidate Frank Kaminsky excels shooting pick-and-pop jump shots or backing his defender down and showing off an array of low post moves. Bruising power forward Nigel Hayes won the league's sixth man of the year award last year because of scoring, rebounding and ability to get to the foul line. Six-foot-7 NBA prospect Sam Dekker will probably start at small forward this year, but he's versatile enough to defend opposing power forwards when necessary. And strongman Vitto Brown and skilled freshman Ethan Happ should also be competent in reserve roles.
Best recruiting class: Ohio State. A Buckeyes team in desperate need of scoring help should get some from its promising freshman class. The headliner is D'Angelo Russell, a smooth 6-foot-5 combo guard who has a knack for racking up points in bunches. Russell, a Louisville native, has the range to shoot over smaller defenders from behind the arc and the quickness to get in the lane, where he often either sets up his teammates or takes a floater himself. Thad Matt and his staff also landed a couple of promising forwards in Keita Bates-Diop and Jae'Sean Tate.
Coach on the rise: Tim Miles, Nebraska. In the past few years, Nebraska has built a sparkling new arena and practice facility and increased its budget for recruiting and assistant coaching hires. Pair that with Miles' career-long knack for rebuilding woebegone basketball programs, and it's no surprise the Huskers are on the cusp of unprecedented success. Terran Petteway, Shavon Shields and most of last year's core returns from a Nebraska team that reached the NCAA tournament for the first time in two decades. If this year's team gets back to March Madness, Miles could become the first Nebraska coach to ever win an NCAA tournament game.
Coach on the hot seat: Mark Turgeon, Maryland. When Turgeon hired a highly respected staff with longstanding ties to the talent-rich region, the consensus was he'd have the Terrapins back among the nation's elite programs before too long. Maryland indeed has recruited better under Turgeon than it did in the latter years under Gary Williams, but so far that hasn't translated into high-level success. In three seasons at Maryland, Turgeon never finished higher than seventh in the ACC and managed only one postseason appearance — a 2013 NIT bid. Throw in five transfers this offseason including heralded point guard Roddy Peters and returning starter Seth Allen, and Turgeon is starting to lose the faith of the Maryland fan base.
FACTS AND FIGURES
New coaches: None.
Regular-season winner last season: Michigan
Tourney winner last season: Michigan State
League RPI rank in each of past 3 seasons: 2013-14: 1st, 2012-13: 1st, 2011-12: 1st
NCAA bids the past three years: 19 (Michigan State 3, Michigan 3, Wisconsin 3, Ohio State 3, Indiana 2, Purdue, Minnesota, Illinois, Iowa, Nebraska)
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Jeff Eisenberg is the editor of The Dagger on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at daggerblog@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!
