Fantasy is a speculative game. Predict the future, and you look like a genius. Don't, and you're painfully human. Gazing into the crystal ball here's our view on 10 intriguing over/unders for Week 14.
Andy — OVER. Jennings led all Packers receivers in targets last week, in his return from injury. I don't think a 6-catch, 85-yard day is too much to ask.
Scott — OVER. I like how Jennings looked in his first game back, he'll be needed with Jordy Nelson likely out, and I don't have anything good to say about Detroit's passing defense.
Brandon — UNDER. That's a high number for someone who has played just four games and who hasn't went for more than 46 yards in any of them. I do think Jennings will have his best game of the season, but it'll fall short of this number.
Bryce Brown total yards against the league's top run defense, Tampa, 124.5
Andy — UNDER. This is kind of a crazy number. Two great games don't make Brown a lock for 120-plus every week, forever. I'd take the under on almost everyone in the player pool at 124.5. So many things have to go right for a back to reach a total like this.
Scott — I hate to be a killjoy on this story, but put me down for an UNDER. Tampa Bay will sell out resources to stop the surging Brown, and when the team with the best YPC and YPG averages puts a target on your back, the sledding gets tricky. Brown is still a no-doubt starter for fantasy owners, but this is a sizable number to expect.
Brandon — OVER. Part of the reason Tampa's run numbers look so good is because opponents opt to throw so much against them (for good reason). But with the inexperienced Nick Foles under center for Philly, and the way Philly's offense caters to RBs, I think Brown gets enough touches to top this mark.
Red-hot Russell Wilson, who has outproduced Brady, Brees and Rodgers over the past five weeks, combined yards versus Arizona 274.5
Scott — I'm head-over-cleats for Wilson, but have to go UNDER. This looks like a spot where the Seahawks can let the defense and the running game (not to mention the crowd) take control of things.
Brandon — UNDER. I think Wilson will be his usual efficient self, but he won't likely be asked to do too much in this one if Seattle can get up on Arizona and milk a lead.
Dalton — UNDER. Wilson has been as good of a quarterback as any in the league over the past four games, but he may not be asked to throw much more than 20 times in what I expect to be a blowout Sunday. Moreover, Arizona has actually been pretty good against the pass this year. Wilson could easily finish under this number but with multiple scores and some rushing yards, so he's still a solid fantasy start this week.
DeMarco Murray, back in the saddle after a top-12 fantasy effort against Philly, total yards at Cincinnati 99.5
Brandon — OVER. Yes, he's back in the saddle as the featured back, and Cincy allows 140 total yards to the RB position per game. Murray should get most all the touches against the Bengals, and push his line over the century mark in total yards.
Dalton — UNDER. I like Murray's talent but just don't trust his health or Dallas' offensive line. Expect another pass-heavy game from Dallas on Sunday.
Brad — OVER. Murray was far from 'limited' last week against Philly, displaying the same explosiveness and versatility that seduced many an owner in Round 2 on draft day. Even in hostile territory he tops this number with ease against a Bengals defense that's surrendered 4.4 YPC to RBs on the season.
In his triumphant return to the lineup, Darren McFadden total touches versus Denver 15.5
Dalton — UNDER. I don't expect his return to be all that triumphant, although it wouldn't shock me if he surpassed this number. But fading it seems the safest route during the fragile running back's first action in five weeks.
Brad — UNDER. Though Marcel Reece could be hindered a bit by a tender hammy, I highly doubt Dennis Allen will burden his fragile starter with a hefty workload in his first game back. Plus, it's entirely possible Denver blows this game open early, relegating McFadden to waterboy duties on the sidelines in the second half.
Andy — OVER. If he's anywhere close to full health, then he's clearly this team's best runner. And if he's not close to full health, then he shouldn't come back just yet. I'm assuming the Raiders will find a way to get DMC 16-plus touches.
Brandon Myers, fresh off tying a team record for receptions in a game with 11, total catches versus Denver 6.5
Brandon — UNDER. NFL is about adjustments. No doubt, Denver saw what went down late in the Oakland game last week. I'm sure they've added wrinkles to their defensive schemes to address the heavy volume of passes going Myers way. I still like Myers, but I'll put him down for 5-6 catches.
Dalton — OVER. It's a pretty high mark, but Denver has given up the second-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends this season, and with Oakland's wide receivers continuing to disappoint and Carson Palmer on pace to finish with the third-most passing attempts in NFL history, Myers benefits greatly.
Brad — OVER. What Myers achieved last week was nothing short of heroic. His literal last-second TD likely propelled hundreds into the playoffs. It's widely believed within the Denver locker-room, tight ends have cooties, which explains why the Broncos have left tight ends unguarded for much of the season (second-most fantasy points allowed to TEs). Expect the Raiders monolith to finish in the 8-10 catch range.
Slumping Eric Decker, who hasn't caught more than four passes in a game since Week 9, receiving yards at Oakland 74.5
Brad — OVER. There may be no better slumpbuster than the Raiders secondary. Aqua Teen's Meatwad could haul in 80-plus yards against Ron Bartell and company. Plus, Decker is overdue. Bank on a major rebound.
Andy — UNDER. It's not that I don't like Decker, or the match-up, or the Denver passing game. But I've stopped expecting huge numbers from the Thursday game.
Scott — Put me down for an UNDER, but I'll still start Decker because I expect red-zone looks (and at least one touchdown).
Scott — I'll be surprised if THOMAS doesn't see more snaps (and more production as a result), but I don't think either player is worth a look in anything short of a 14-teamer. Matt Stafford isn't afraid to chuck it to Calvin Johnson a crazy number of times.
Brandon— THOMAS As the starting WR, as opposed to a backup TE, Thomas has the volume advantage. I expect Scheffler will be more involved than usual, but the spot opposite of Calvin Johnson has been fairly productive all season, be it Burleson, Young or Broyles. Now it's Thomas' turn.
Dalton — THOMAS. The WR certainly hasn't done much since joining Detroit, but he's expected to move into the starting lineup in place of Broyles, and while he probably has a lower floor, Thomas offers more upside than Scheffler.
Sliding Matt Ryan total standard league fantasy points (1 point/20 pass yards, 4 pts/pass TD) at Carolina 19.5
Dalton — OVER. Ryan has posted just a 2:6 TD:INT ratio over the past three games, but I fully expect him to bounce back in a game that could turn into a shootout.
Brad — UNDER. Ryan's fantasy value is plummeting fast. He's failed to eclipse 20 fantasy points in a game in three of his past five, including, inconceivably, last week against New Orleans. The Panthers, who've conceded a modest 7.0 yards per attempt, are no pushovers against the pass.
Andy — OVER. Perhaps not by a lot, but this isn't much of a number. It's not so unusual for 8-10 quarterbacks to reach 20.0 fantasy points in a non-bye week. All of Ryan's weapons are still in place. Don't get suckered into playing the hot/cold game.
WR3 Rundown. Pick one: T.Y. Hilton (vs. Ten), Mike Williams (vs. Phi), Chris Givens (at Buf) or Josh Gordon (vs. KC)
Andy — GORDON. He's facing the defense that's allowed the most passing TDs this season. This one is a layup.
Scott — I'd be fine to dial up any of these guys, but WILLIAMS looks most appealing, up against a Philadelphia secondary that's fallen to pieces since Todd Bowles took over. Every quarterback turns into Marino '84 against these chaps.
Brandon — WILLIAMS I like them all (all among my top 30 WRs). But Philly has been so poor in pass coverage for the past month and a half, and Williams is coming off a big effort against a strong Denver defense … I just like Williams' entire set-up a little better than the others.
Dalton — WILLIAMS. All are sneaky decent options, and I almost went with Hilton for what it's worth, but ultimately it came down to the Eagles playing historically bad pass defense over the past six games.
Brad — GIVENS. No longer just a long-bomb specialist, the rookie is rapidly developing into a complete receiver. Last week against a stingy San Fran secondary he hauled in 11 receptions for 92 yards. The Bills are improving defensively, but this week the wideout shines.
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