Closing Time: The AL East shows its teeth again; J.A. Happ goes west
Hope you enjoyed the one-year respite with AL East offense. The division is reloaded and ready to pile on the runs. Fun place to hit, dangerous place to pitch.
The Red Sox and Blue Jays offered their nominal aces for Tuesday night’s game and it didn’t matter much; Toronto pounded out an 11-8 victory at Fenway Park. Clay Buchholz didn’t make it out of the third inning, and Drew Hutchison expired in the fifth. Jose Bautista clocked a home run that still hasn’t landed yet, and Josh Donaldson and Hanley Ramirez also went deep. (Ramirez completed the Hanley Hat Trick by making an error and being caught on the bases. Ah, Ramirezes in Boston, the gift that keeps on giving.)
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If you look at the per-game scoring leaders through the opening month, the AL East dominates the landscape. Toronto ranks first, Baltimore second, Boston fourth, New York fifth. All of those clubs play in hitter-friendly ballparks, and most of them received offensive upgrades before the season. The Jays are in love with Devon Travis and Donaldson. Don’t laugh, the Yanks really missed Alex Rodriguez. The Red Sox paid up for Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval, and are set for a full year of Mookie Betts.
The Rays are the oddball cousin in the division, a pitching-rich club that plays in a pitcher-favoring park. Alex Cobb and Chris Archer would probably be the No. 1 starter on any of these teams (now that Masahiro Tanaka is out indefinitely), and Jake Odorizzi seems ready to take the leap this season. The Rays are currently 19th in runs scored per game, 13th in ERA. I’d bet on that latter number going down, no matter that Tampa has to negotiate this divisional minefield.
Anytime you’re on the fence about an offensive pickup in this division, I say you trust in the undertow and make the move. Jimmy Paredes, come on down. Brock Holt, we’ll love you if they keep playing you. Travis might go down as the waiver-wire bonanza of the year. Go where the runs are.
Even Tampa’s offense could be respectable when everyone gets healthy, and when the club finally accepts Asdrubal Cabrera (.225/.271/.313) has no business being the team’s dedicated No. 3 hitter. Steven Souza looks like a fun player, plenty of category juice. James Loney is an underrated utility corner. Desmond Jennings was running plenty before his knee soreness kicked in. Evan Longoria is off to a solid start. Tim Beckham, post-hype sleeper?
• If you want a play in the other direction, how about sneaky left-handed pitcher J.A. Happ? The well-traveled Happ traded the Toronto turf for the sounds of Safeco, and so far, so good. He’s off to a tidy 2.30/1.06 start over four turns, with 18 strikeouts against just three walks.
The AL West is a cushy spot to do your business. Obviously Oakland and Seattle operate in extreme pitcher parks, and the environment in Los Angeles also favors the pitcher. Houston is a good place to hit, but it’s not extreme – runs get a four-percent bump there, while average dips two percent.
And then there’s the case of the Arlington ballpark, formerly one of the AL’s biggest offensive havens. Structural changes back in 2013 altered the wind currents of the stadium, and the yard was actually a drain on offense last year, per the Bill James Handbook (runs dipped two percent, homers dipped seven percent). The jetstream, sadly, isn't the same.
Happ’s latest win was a stroll in the park at Arlington, 6.2 smooth innings Tuesday (6 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 9 K). Don’t fear Texas monsters under the bed, they no longer exist.
If you’re interested in a Happ purchase, he’s still available in 90 percent of Yahoo leagues. He draws Houston (road) and Oakland (home) for his next two starts.
• The Free Alex Guerrero movement received a push Tuesday, with Carl Crawford (oblique) landing on the disabled list. Guerrero didn’t do anything against Madison Bumgarner on Tuesday (0-3, strikeout), but he was in the lineup, slotted sixth. Scott Van Slyke is another option Don Mattingly can consider while Crawford heals up.
How long will Crawford need on the DL? Probably much more than 15 days. Crawford described the injury as a tear and acknowledged "it's pretty bad."
• Enough of those meddling kids, Brett Cecil has the closing chair back to himself in the YYZ. Cecil had a fairly painless conversion Tuesday (one hit, one strikeout), wiping away the memory of Saturday’s loss at Tampa.
Cecil’s ratios are a mess from one bad outing, but otherwise his seasonal line looks reasonable (6 IP, 7 H, 2 BB, 7 K). It’s probably a fluke that he’s already allowed two homers; he gave up a mere six taters over his previous 114 innings. The begoggled one is currently unowned in 52 percent of Yahoo leagues.
• Is the hot hand a real thing in baseball? Should we consider it for our daily and our seasonal pursiits? I've always suspected it was a real thing, but had no proof to offer up.
Anyway, my buddy Michael Salfino thinks the hot hand applies to baseball, and at least one acedemic from Stanford agrees with him. Take a look at the Stanford research, see what you make of it. In the meantime, I'll be starting Jimmy Paradise.
