Who is this year's Jacob Misiorowski? These are the 9 most likely breakout Brewers prospects in 2024
Big-league spring training has been in full swing for three weeks now, but things just got going officially on the minor league side on Sunday.
Last year, the Journal Sentinel picked nine breakout prospects for 2023 – players who may or may not be ranked among various prospect lists – so it only made sense to bring the exercise back with minors camp having just kicked off.
Last year, we excluded ourselves from picking Jacob Misiorowski – it felt like cheating – but had Luke Adams and Logan Henderson in the top nine and listed Tyler Black as my top pick to click in 2023. Those calls worked out.
Of course, there were some misses, too (hello, Cameron Wagoner and Stiven Cruz in my top four) but that’s just a lump that you have to take in a list like this.
I’m again not going to pick anyone from the current top 10 within the Brewers system, even though the likes of Brock Wilken and Yophery Rodriguez have upside all over them.
Ranked in ascending order of most likely to soar through prospect rankings this year, here are the top nine breakout candidates for 2024.
9. Coleman Crow
Why he will break out: The caveat here is that Crow has to return to the mound in 2024. He underwent Tommy John surgery last July, which makes his chances at pitching during the minor-league season somewhat of a toss-up. But if Crow can make a couple of regular season starts and then pitch in the Arizona Fall League, he’s got a real chance to shine thanks to his above-average secondary stuff.
Why he won’t: Does he even pitch this year? Or do the Brewers opt to play it cautious with him and keep him rehabbing until fall instructs?
8. Luis Corobo
Why he will break out: Corobo is a 16-year-old Venezuelan catcher with an advanced arm and receiving skills behind the plate. Offensively there is work to be done but his frame could allow for some intriguing power displays in the Dominican Summer League. Sound like Jeferson Quero at all? Now, that would of course be a big leap for a member of the Brewers’ 2024 international signing class who hasn’t played a professional game yet, and trying to project or predict players at that age is incredibly difficult. But Corobo might just be an underrated find in the Brewers’ class.
Why he won't: Trying to surmise what will happen with DSL players is often a fool’s errand.
7. Quinton Low
Why he will break out: Low was drafted as a two-way player out of high school in Colorado, but pretty early on it became clear that his future is as a pitcher. Low throws in the upper 90s and can hit triple digits with his fastball while mixing in a wipeout sweeping slider. You won’t find Low ranked on any Brewers prospect lists because he has struggled massively with command and battled injuries, but there’s plenty of upside to be found if he can rein in the walks.
Why he won’t: While Low struck out 32% of batters he faced at Class A Carolina last year, he also walked 19.7%.
6. Satchell Norman
Why he will break out: Norman, a 15th-rounder out of Florida Southwestern Junior College in 2022, has gotten virtually no buzz post-draft while playing solely in the Arizona Complex League. Last year, he had a .425 OBP in 30 games in the ACL with three homers and six doubles. He’s got a quick, compact stroke that packs plenty of punch and has a solid chance to stick at catcher. He has the type of plate discipline and pop that should lead to good results at Class A Carolina and High-A Wisconsin.
Why he won’t: Through a year and a half in pro ball, Norman has just 40 games played, hasn’t appeared at a full-season affiliate yet and will be 21 in July. That isn’t typically the type of profile you would bank on for a breakout season.
5. Patricio Aquino
Why he will break out: Aquino is one of the more promising arms the Brewers have signed internationally in recent years. He recorded a 2.75 ERA in 88 ⅓ innings at Carolina last year despite only having turned 20 in May. The righty features a looping slider that is among the better sliders in the system and regularly would work his fastball into the 95-96 mph zone when he needed to last year.
The lack of attention surrounding him was a bit surprising given those two pitches as well as his performance at his age. If he has a similar type of season in 2024 – which will likely begin at Class High-A Wisconsin – then he should finish as a top 15 prospect in the system.
Why he won’t: Aquino is, at least at this point, primarily a two-pitch guy. His changeup needs refinement as well as better location. His fastball shape doesn’t particularly stand out, either, which makes him susceptible to lefties at times.
4. Dylan O’Rae
Why he will break out: When the Brewers took O’Rae 102nd in the 2022 draft, they stumped even draft experts on the broadcast who were completely unfamiliar with the diminutive high schooler from Canada. But the 5-7, 160-lb. outfielder has flashed some ability by batting .344 in the minors. In 23 games as a 19-year-old at Class A Carolina, O’Rae posted a .439 OBP and stole 16 bases.
He has legitimate plus-plus speed and might be the fastest player in the Brewers minor-league system. He pairs that with good pitch selection and strong bat-to-ball skills. If O’Rae hits .300 – which he’s capable of – over an entire year at full-season affiliates, he will soar up on rankings lists.
Why he won’t: Unsurprisingly given his size, O’Rae does not possess much power. He has just eight doubles and no homers across 68 career minor-league games. The Brewers won’t want O’Rae to sacrifice his elite contact skills to become something he’s not as a hitter, but finding some semblance of gap to gap power is critical.
3. Eric Bitonti
Why he will break out: Among the overslot high school picks from the 2023 Brewers draft, Cooper Pratt is ranked a few spots higher because of the consistency of his hit tool and potential to be a solid defensive shortstop. If I’m picking one that’s more likely to really click in 2024 and shoot up various rankings, though? It’s Bitonti.
Listed at 6-foot-4 and 218 pounds, Bitonti possessed rare levels of power for a prep prospect when he was drafted at age 17 last summer. He accesses it well in games, too. It’s the type of profile that could get called up to Class A Carolina in May or June and wow scouts with his ability to drive the baseball.
Why he won’t: Power-over-hit teenage prospects are inherently risky and even pitching at Class A is leaps better than what prospects face on the best high-school travel and showcase circuits.
2. Ryan Birchard
Why he will break out: Perhaps it’s a bit too reductive to simply point to the Brewers’ track record with junior college pitchers in the draft, but what if it isn’t? Birchard hopes to be next in the line of arms like Aaron Ashby, Jacob Misiorowski, Carlos Rodriguez and Logan Henderson, all of whom have been successful draft picks out of junior colleges. Birchard’s fastball reaches 98 mph and has riding life. At 20 years old and out of Niagara Community College, Birchard fits the mold of under-scouted pitchers the Brewers have successfully identified and developed.
Why he won’t: Control. Birchard walked 28 in 50 innings for Niagara last year. His stuff isn't quite that nasty to overcome similar that level of free passes in pro ball.
1. Logan Henderson
Why he will break out: We had Henderson on this list last year and he went on to strike out 106 batters in 78 ⅔ innings with a 2.86 ERA at Carolina. So why is he on here again?
Well, we’re expecting Henderson to take the next jump into becoming one of the team’s top prospects in 2024 thanks to his plus changeup, above-average fastball and plus command. He’s still thrown fewer than 100 innings at full-season ball since being drafted in 2021 – and none above Carolina – so there’s a bit of a “prove it” element still to Henderson before evaluators bump him up fully in their rankings. He's worked hard on refining a third pitch, which will most likely be his slider. If Henderson, who is just older than many of the top pitchers in the 2024 draft, figures that out with any semblance of consistency, he should find himself in Class AA quickly.
Why he won’t: How will Henderson respond to a greater workload in his age-22 season? Health will be the big question as he moves forward, followed by the aforementioned breaking ball.
This article originally appeared on Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: Nine Milwaukee Brewers prospects most likely to break out in 2024
