Yankees projected to win AL East in PECOTA’s 2024 standings
The Yankees missed out on winning the American League East last season, but PECOTA’s latest projected standings were released Tuesday and they have New York winning the division in 2024.
The AL East was arguably the best division in baseball in 2023 and the Yankees struggled to remain over .500, but PECOTA has the Bombers improving to win 94.4 games on average. That’s the fourth-best projected win total in all of baseball, behind the Los Angeles Dodgers (101.1), Atlanta Braves (100.7), and Houston Astros (95.0).
What’s surprising to most is how PECOTA believes the AL East will shake out. Behind the Yankees, Baseball Prospectus projects the Toronto Blue Jays in second with 88.2 wins, and the Baltimore Orioles -- coming off a 101-win season and the addition of Corbin Burnes -- in third with 86.6 wins. The Tampa Bay Rays (86.2) and the Boston Red Sox (79.8) round out the division.
The additions of Juan Soto, Alex Verdugo and other pieces clearly help the Yankees’ projections. PECOTA has the Yanks projected to score 827 runs and allow just 684, a run differential of 143. That would have them scoring more runs than every other team in baseball not named the Astros (839), Braves (855) and Dodgers (879).
Only the Minnesota Twins (681) and Braves (671) are projected to allow fewer runs this season. Of course, when you have the reigning AL Cy Young winner in Gerrit Cole and consistently one of the best bullpens in baseball, runs are likely to come at a premium when going up against the Yankees.
But what about the playoffs?
In PECOTA’s simulations, the Yankees have a 57.8 percent chance to win the division, and a 34.3 percent chance to win the Wild Card. So the Yanks are slated to make the postseason after missing it a year ago, 92.1 percent of the time.
They also have a 75 percent chance to make the Division Series, and a 10.8 percent chance to make the World Series.
Their odds to make the World Series are the fourth-best, behind the Astros (12.1 percent), Dodgers (17.1 percent) and Braves (18.7 percent).
The moves GM Brian Cashman has made along with the players already on the team gives the Yanks a great chance to get back to the Fall Classic in 2024.
Now, it's time to for them to go out there and prove it.
