Yankees 2024 MLB season preview and prediction, including playoff fate

Big season coming up in The Bronx, no? The Yankees were a ghastly (for them) 82-80 last year, their fewest victories in a full 162-game slate since, gulp, 1992, which also happens to be the last time they had a losing record.

Fourth place in the AL East meant a lot of winter teeth-gnashing and hand-wringing by their fans. That’s putting it kindly.

So this winter, the Yankees added one of the premier offensive talents in baseball by trading for Juan Soto. They addressed what had been a puzzling lack of left-handed hitting in their lineup, especially for a team with that famed short right-field porch, by acquiring Soto, Trent Grisham and Alex Verdugo.

They also signed Marcus Stroman to bolster the starting rotation, while at the same time crossing their fingers on bounce backs from Carlos Rodón and Nestor Cortes, disappointments last year. But they also didn’t do more in the starting pitching market, which could impact their season.

Injuries, certainly a part of the 2023 thud, have already shown up this spring for the Yanks – Aaron Judge missed time in camp with an abdominal issue, ace Gerrit Cole will start the season on the Injured List, and DJ LeMahieu just joined him.

It’s easy to be optimistic about this team’s chances, what with all the talent on the roster. But it’s easy to be concerned about the injuries already, too. They should be good enough to take their chances in the playoffs, but they also have to last through 162 games.

What the Yankees have going for them

Their offense should be much better after an embarrassing 2023 in which they were 25th in runs per game (4.15), well below the MLB average of 4.62. Even the 106-loss Royals averaged more runs than the Yankees. Yikes.

Soto will be an immense help, especially if you believe he’s aiming for a huge platform year going into his first crack at free agency. He has a career on-base percentage of .421. Imagine him batting ahead of Judge, if Judge can play 150 or so games?

Anthony Rizzo, whose ‘23 season was wrecked by post-concussion syndrome, should rebound. Rizzo plus a leaner, more mobile Giancarlo Stanton – he re-fashioned his offseason workout program to try to bulletproof his body against injury – could have a significant impact on the lineup.

Gleyber Torres is also on the cusp of free agency and he was probably the second-best Yankee hitter last season when he hit 25 homers and was the only other regular aside from Judge to have an OPS of at least .800. He’ll contribute.

So should Anthony Volpe, who is entering his second season at shortstop. He hit 21 homers and swiped 24 bases last year, making for a nice debut, until you looked at his batting average (.209), on-base (.289) and strikeouts (team-high 167). But Volpe worked on flattening out his swing and was hitting well over .300 late in camp.

The Yankees have been very good in recent years in finding guys to fill out their bullpen, so that doesn’t track as an area of concern this year, even if some of the names have changed. Call ‘em the Bronx Bullpeneers? Oh, whatever. But the Yanks had the best relief ERA in baseball last season – 3.34 – and return closer Clay Holmes, Ian Hamilton and others -- and also could have a full season of health from Jonathan Loaísiga.

If the Yanks must cope with injuries, they have intriguing potential replacements, especially in the outfield. Spencer Jones, a fleet, towering prospect who reached Double-A last year, created buzz during spring with his power, speed and size – he’s 6-6, sparking natural comps to Judge.

And Jasson Domínguez, a roaring success in his overhyped MLB debut last year – he homered four times in eight games before getting hurt – should return by midseason from Tommy John surgery. Both players can be dreamt on, of course, but they have a lot yet to prove, too.

The Yankees will make the playoffs if…

The offense mashes, Cole -- the defending AL Cy Young Award winner -- comes back OK, and even one of the bounce back pitchers thrives.

Rodón often looks like the kind of pitcher who would fit snugly behind Cole in a dangerous playoff rotation, but his Yankee tenure (so far) is sketchy. Cortes earned the Opening Day nod in the wake of Cole’s injury, and it would be an enormous boost if he recaptures his 2022 form and delivers 150-plus innings of pitching with an ERA around 2.50.

Stroman saw injuries affect a terrific beginning to his final season in Chicago last year, but he’s reliable enough to soak up 140-plus innings, and Clarke Schmidt is another dependable arm who should be able to better his ERA from last year (4.64) and his innings total (159).

The fifth starter was a derby toward the end of camp and Luis Gil, a 25-year-old righty who is coming back from Tommy John surgery, emerged as the winner thanks to an eye-popping spring. He had a 2.87 ERA in five outings, striking out 23 and allowing only seven hits across 15.2 innings.

One scout from another organization watched one of his spring starts and raved, “He was throwing 97-100 (miles per hour) and he was blowing the ball by guys.

“His changeup was ridiculous. It was a power change – so active it was crazy. One of them was 93 (mph) and others were 89-90 or 91-92. It looked the same, no matter what velocity it was coming in at.”

The Yankees will miss the playoffs if…

Cole’s season is a disaster. The ace is supposed to be shut down from throwing for at least two-to-three more weeks because of his elbow. Even if he keeps that schedule, he’s got to build up again before he gets back to the majors, so he’s already slated to miss a chunk of time. If his timeline balloons, the Yankees will struggle.

They probably needed to add another high-level arm over the winter just because pitching is such an attrition business, but they did not. Maybe they will discover a future star from a well-regarded farm system, but more certainty would’ve been at least a security blanket of sorts for their fans.

Beyond Cole, the rest of the roster’s health looms as a potential roadblock, too. It’s an annual concern, but if Judge gets hurt, their season could be derailed, too. Really, that’s exactly what happened as soon as Judge’s toe struck the wall at Dodger Stadium last year.

Finally, what if there’s no return to form from LeMahieu (when healthy) and Rizzo? That could place a heavy load on the rest of the lineup and extra pressure on newcomers such as Soto and Verdugo.

Final record and playoff prediction

94-68
Second in AL East
First Wild Card spot

This is a solid playoff team with high aspirations and the potential to grasp them, thanks to what should be a punishing offense. Even with all the red flags – health, the viability of some of the bounce backs they’re seeking – the Yankees will finish 94-68 and lurk in the AL East race all season before finishing second behind the mighty, youthful Orioles.

Through the twisty AL Wild Card route, the Yanks will reach the ALCS. We know another final four disappointment won’t please their demanding fans, but that’s where Baltimore gets them again, ending their season.