Worst to first? Ranking all 8 NFL candidates to make major divisional turnaround in 2023
Is the NFL ripe for more swift turnarounds?
The league has long been known for providing a friendly landscape for teams to reverse their fortunes in a single year, with at least one group going from cellar dweller to division champion on an almost annual basis. The latest franchise to do so: the Jacksonville Jaguars, who last season claimed their first AFC South title since 2017 and became the third team since the 1970 merger to win its division the season after it held the No. 1 overall draft pick.
With the offseason wrapped up and everything quiet until training camps open in late July, each fourth-place finisher hopes it will be the latest to enjoy a rapid rise. But do any of them have a legitimate shot to follow in the Jaguars' footsteps?
Here's how all eight eligible teams rank in their ability to go from worst to first in their respective divisions in 2023:
1. New York Jets
The case for: Does it need to be said? Aaron Rodgers' arrival immediately transformed this team into a legitimate AFC contender. The supporting cast pushed the Jets to a 7-4 start last year before the wheels came off, and Joe Douglas was able to isolate the problem – Zach Wilson and his second consecutive year finishing last in passer rating (72.8) – and subbed in a four-time MVP. Even if Rodgers' performance is closer to last season's somewhat disappointing overall mode rather than his peak form, it could be enough to launch Gang Green to double-digit wins. With reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year Garrett Wilson, promising second-year running back Breece Hall and some familiar faces (Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb) for good measure, Rodgers will have no shortage of skill-position playmakers at his disposal. And a defense teetering on the verge of dominance should give the new signal-caller plenty of backing.
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The case against: While Rodgers is raving about how much fun he's having and drawing laudatory reviews from teammates, what happens if the team hits an early roadblock? With an opening schedule featuring the Buffalo Bills, Dallas Cowboys, New England Patriots and Dallas Cowboys, the Jets could find themselves in a bad spot just four weeks into the season. Rodgers, of course, has rarely been reticent to air out issues with peers and coaches, and any critical remarks will come under even closer scrutiny in New York. And even Rodgers' addition might not give Gang Green enough firepower to keep pace with the Bills and Miami Dolphins, who ranked second and third, respectively, in yards per play last season.
Bottom line: The AFC East is likely the league's most treacherous division this year, so it's anyone's guess as to what a potential pecking order might look like. That means the Jets can't count on Rodgers alone to take them all the way to the top. With some good fortune on the health front and improved play on the offensive line, however, New York could find its first division title in 21 years within reach.
2. Atlanta Falcons
The case for: Above all, the Falcons' placement on this list is thanks to the division. There are no established contenders that call the NFC South home, and eight wins might be all that's needed to secure hosting rights for a wild-card contest. Even without going all-in on a quarterback, Arthur Smith and Terry Fontenot have built an offense that hums along thanks to the dynamic ground game. First-round running back Bijan Robinson should make the attack even more electric, though his foremost value might come as a pass catcher who will aid wide receiver Drake London and tight end Kyle Pitts in creating easy mismatches for second-year quarterback Desmond Ridder. While the defense's long-term outlook is murky, the addition of as many as six new veteran starters should bring what was a lackluster unit closer to the middle of the pack.
The case against: Riding with Ridder could come back to haunt Smith and Fontenot if the 2022 third-round pick can't progress beyond being a caretaker behind center. Atlanta's decision to stick with an unproven entity at quarterback while relying on its rushing attack would also make more sense if the defense were more formidable. As it stands, the Falcons look prone to falling in some holes that will be too deep for this group to climb out of.
Bottom line: The Falcons are far from the strongest team on this list, but none of the other franchises have this ripe of an opportunity. While the New Orleans Saints deserve to be considered division favorites thanks to a better outlook at quarterback, Atlanta might not be too far behind.
3. Chicago Bears
The case for: Surprising as it might be to find the team with the NFL's worst 2022 record this high, there are marked differences between this year's Bears team and last season's edition. DJ Moore gives Justin Fields the legitimate No. 1 target the quarterback has long lacked, and offensive guard Nate Davis and first-round offensive tackle Darnell Wright are nice steps toward fortifying the offensive line. Most importantly, Fields made admirable progress as a passer in his second season, and offensive coordinator Luke Getsy said in May the signal-caller is "light years" ahead of where he was at this point last offseason. Seems like a passing attack that has ranked 32nd and 30th in the last two years could be destined for a major boost – so long as the staff allows Fields to open things up downfield. Chicago also gets pushed up this list merely by being in the NFC North, as the Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings are both in transition and the Detroit Lions can't be considered a lock in the unfamiliar role of front-runner.
The case against: A lot hinges on the faith that Fields will make a considerable jump in Year 3. If the signal-caller falls short or isn't equipped with the proper support, the Bears' path to immediate improvement narrows considerably. Even if the offense clicks, a defense that ranked last in points allowed (27.2 per game) still appears incredibly vulnerable up front, with no top-tier pass-rush threats off the edge and not enough heft on the interior to stuff the run. Better hope that free-agent linebackers Tremaine Edmunds and T.J. Edwards can make a big difference at the second level and that a young secondary finds its way. Chicago was also the only last-place finisher to go winless in its division last season, so there's a lot of ground to be made up.
Bottom line: Despite Chicago's placement here, there's a pretty severe dropoff in chances for a worst-to-first turnaround after the first two entries. It would be a major surprise if the Bears could muster enough to secure a wild-card berth, let alone just the franchise's second NFC North title since 2011. But a breakthrough is still within reach, and that could be enough to create a substantial shake-up in the standings given the uncertainty of the competition within the division.
4. Cleveland Browns
The case for: Few others on this list can claim the kind of difference-maker Cleveland has in Deshaun Watson. Yes, the three-time Pro Bowl quarterback was alarmingly off in his return after serving an 11-game ban for his personal conduct violation stemming from sexual assault allegations, as he posted career lows in passer rating (79.1) and completion percentage (58.2%). But Watson said in May that his confidence level has returned, and another offseason with the franchise could help him get back on track for his first full season as a starter since 2020. The offense has the talent and stability to be one of the league's more productive units after years of pedestrian to subpar outputs, and the defense should be invigorated by coordinator Jim Schwartz simplifying things for Myles Garrett and Co.
The case against: At this point, Watson's performance last season can't be completely written off as an aberration. If the Browns don't get elite quarterback play from Watson after going all in for him last March, there's no real springboard for this team to put itself in the same tier with Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens.
Bottom line: At 4-7 by the time Watson made his Cleveland debut last season, the Browns had largely faded into the background. That shouldn't be the case this year, as the quarterback gamble will either help lead Kevin Stefanski and Andrew Berry back into the playoff hunt or potentially put both the coach and general manager on the hot seat. The Bengals and Ravens look to be more complete teams, but the Browns could create some havoc if the offense takes off.
5. Washington Commanders
The case for: Washington was the only fourth-place finisher that did not have a losing record last season (8-8-1), and this isn't a team that lends itself to any walkovers. Daron Payne, Jonathan Allen, Montez Sweat and Chase Young combine to make one of the league's most formidable foursomes along the defensive line, and the consistent pressure generated up front can help mask other deficiencies. Despite having just one start to his name, second-year quarterback Sam Howell has shown a playmaking flair. New offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy seems like a good candidate to help Howell tap into that ability while not overburdening his young signal-caller.
The case against: Solid isn't enough to cut it in the NFC East, the only division that boasted three playoff teams last year. Neither Howell nor Jacoby Brissett are surefire options to lead the offense to its first top-20 finish in scoring during Ron Rivera's run. Even if Washington gets passable play from one of them, that probably won't prove sufficient to help this outfit catch up with the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys, who rank among the elite few NFC contenders. And if the defense slips from last year's standard after ranking third in yards allowed and seventh in scoring, the team's balance might be thrown out of whack.
Bottom line: Rivera's consistency in Washington amid all the other turmoil has been admirable. But barring Howell becoming an absolute dynamo behind center, there's not enough juice for this team to make a massive leap from its typical seven- or eight-win trajectory. But keep the door just slightly ajar for some chaos.
6. Denver Broncos
The case for: Calling a mulligan on the Nathaniel Hackett debacle might go a long way toward setting things right in the Rockies. Amid the myriad issues in 2022: Russell Wilson and Co. couldn't stay on schedule, setting league worsts with a 29.1% third-down conversion rate, 63 sacks allowed and just 16.9 points per game. Sean Payton's quick-hitting attack should solve some of those pressing issues, with Wilson likely afforded more looks to allow receivers Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton and Tim Patrick prime chances to rack up yards after the catch. There's still ample talent on this roster, especially if running back Javonte Williams and edge rusher Randy Gregory can bounce back from knee injuries.
The case against: Can Payton really get a 34-year-old quarterback heralded as a franchise savior to change his mindset? Wilson's big-game hunting is likely more feature than bug at this point in his career, and it's unclear how he'll process a new approach after Hackett molded the offense to his liking last offseason. Repairing this team also requires more than a schematic overhaul after last season's nosedive gave way to a teammate shouting at Wilson and a sideline tussle. Then there's that pesky matter of the Kansas City Chiefs, winners of the AFC West for the last six years and owners of a 15-game win streak over the Broncos.
The bottom line: The first order of business needs to be ending that unsightly skid against the Chiefs. Only then can Denver entertain the possibility of making an actual push for the AFC West perch. If things click quickly under Payton, however, a wild-card berth could be within reach.
7. Houston Texans
The case for: After treading water with two one-and-done coaches and enduring Davis Mills behind center for the last two seasons, the Texans finally look poised for a proper relaunch. DeMeco Ryans' hire as head coach could provide a significant lift – particularly for a defense that has some solid pieces – while C.J. Stroud provides an actual catalyst behind center. And of all the last-place finishers, Houston is the only one that finished with a winning record within its division last year (3-2-1). If the Texans can pile up wins against the rebuilding Tennessee Titans and Indianapolis Colts, a forgiving schedule could help vault the team in the standings.
The case against: It's difficult to look at a team that posted the third-worst point differential (-131) and see anything but a multiyear project. A rough transition could await Stroud, who is accustomed to operating with a superlative receiving corps but will be saddled with one of the league's worst pass-catching crews in Houston. Overall, the collection of young talent on this roster is underwhelming – nothing compared to the Jaguars, who look to be the runaway favorites to repeat.
Bottom line: Don't be surprised if Ryans is able to squeeze a few more wins out of this group right away. Aiming to leapfrog the Jaguars, however, would be setting the bar far too high.
8. Arizona Cardinals
The case for: Maybe a new regime can at least provide a spark. After things in the desert grew stale under Kliff Kingsbury and Steve Keim, Jonathan Gannon and Monti Ossenfort have a chance to breathe new life into this franchise after its 4-13 mark in 2022. If Kyler Murray can make an expedited return from a torn anterior cruciate ligament suffered last December, the Cardinals at least have a hope to be somewhat competitive against the league's middle- and bottom-tier teams.
The case against: Strong case to be made this is the league's worst roster, top to bottom. If Murray misses extensive time, Arizona will no doubt find itself in unwinnable scenarios with Colt McCoy trying to compensate for a woefully undermanned defense. Then there's the matter of the division. The Cardinals went 0-4 against the San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks last year, losing those games by a combined 73 points. With both of those contenders holding strong and Arizona still potentially bottoming out, the gap between them might only grow larger this fall.
Bottom line: It's best to set reasonable expectations for a team that is the early front-runner for the No. 1 pick in 2024. Maybe that's the year that Arizona – with the Texans' first-rounder already in tow – becomes a legitimate candidate for a worst-to-first transition.
Follow USA TODAY Sports' Michael Middlehurst-Schwartz on Twitter @MikeMSchwartz.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: NFL worst-to-first candidates: Ranking all 8 teams for 2023 season
