Wizards offseason primer: Kristaps Porzingis, Kyle Kuzma, Bradley Beal, more
The Washington Wizards are headed back to the lottery for the fifth time in six seasons. They were hoping to get back to the playoffs with a healthy Bradley Beal and more continuity with Kristaps Porzingis and Kyle Kuzma, but they remained in the middle of the pack. Doubts about their ability to reach contention anytime soon could lead to questions about their future and those of their top players.
Here is a preview of the 2023 offseason for the team.
State of the roster and overall direction
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The Wizards have strived toward fielding the best team possible every season in the past decade, regardless of their position and roster situation. Their last rebuild was between 2010-2013, leading to the selections of John Wall, Bradley Beal, and Otto Porter Jr. That core would lead the Wizards to four playoff appearances in six seasons up until 2019 when Wall began missing significant time with multiple lower body injuries and they traded Porter Jr. In that span, they won two first-round playoff series, with that core peaking in 2017 after taking the Celtics to 7 games.
Since 2019, they’ve only made one playoff appearance (in 2021) led by a vintage Russell Westbrook season. In the other four seasons, they missed the playoffs, they placed 11th, 10th, 12th, and 11th in the Eastern Conference in 2019, 2020, 2022, and 2023, respectively. They’ve started each season with the intention to compete and often dial it back at the end once it’s clear the playoffs are out of reach. This has kept them in the middle of the lottery pack, limiting their highest first-round selection to the 9th overall, twice. They haven’t come close to drafting a player of the caliber of a Wall, Beal, or Porter Jr. yet, but may have their best opportunity this year with them projected to get the 7th or 8th overall selection.
This leads to the big question: should they finally hit the reset button and enter a rebuild? While the answer to those who doubt this roster’s prospects is a resounding yes, it’s not so simple. In Washington’s playoff pursuit all these years, they’ve exhausted spending power re-signing their veterans and signing role players to improve the team on the margins. They could generate $30 million in cap space if Kristaps Porzingis and Kyle Kuzma leave in free agency, but that might not even be enough to replace just one of them.
If they want to finally pivot to a rebuild, which would probably get sparked by a trade request from Beal, they seem more likely to re-sign both Porzingis and Kuzma first. This would allow them to become sellers ahead of the 2024 trade deadline, putting them in a position to get a lot of value for their three valuable starters.
Kristaps Porzingis
USA TODAY Sports
Kristaps Porzingis had one of his best seasons since returning from his ACL tear in 2019. He no longer has the same burst and movement from the peak of his Knicks days but he has found a way to be productive around those limitations. He averaged 23.2 points per game on 62.7 percent true shooting, both of which are career highs. He was Washington’s most impactful player this year garnering some All-Star consideration.
One of his biggest impacts this season was on the defensive end, which kept the Wizards in the mix for a play-in spot for most of the season. Opponents only shot 56 percent at the rim against Porzingis, which would rank 10th among players who contested at least five shots per game at the rim.
Porzingis can become an unrestricted free agent this offseason if he declines his $36 million player option. He is currently extension-eligible through June 30 on a framework that could add an additional four seasons that would require him to decline his option.
However, no extension permits a first-year salary less than his $36 million player option amount. This could push contract negotiations in the summer if he opts out since the Wizards may prefer he re-signs on a lower first-year salary. This would help accommodate re-signing Kuzma while staying below the projected $162 million luxury tax.
For Porzingis, it would make a ton of sense to capitalize off his great, and more importantly, healthy season. The eight-year veteran has missed roughly 28 percent of possible games over the last four seasons, and his 65 games played this season would be his highest mark since his sophomore season. According to HoopsHype’s Michael Scotto, multiple executives believe Porzingis could opt out and secure a long-term deal in the $30 million annual range.
Kyle Kuzma
Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
Kyle Kuzma had another great season as a Wizard, particularly on the scoring end. He was given the highest usage of his career and held up on generally similar efficiency from previous seasons. At only 27 years old, his room for more growth and his positional versatility should make him one of the more sought-after free agents this offseason.
Kuzma can become an unrestricted free agent this offseason if he declines his $13 million player option, which he is expected to do. He is currently extension-eligible through June 30 for up to four years, $70 million, but he can and should get much more as a free agent. In a rising cap environment, Kuzma could be looking at doubling his current annual salary.
As mentioned earlier, Washington’s lack of cap flexibility doesn’t give them much of an alternative option if Porzingis and Kuzma leave. Assuming both opt out, the Wizards will have nearly $60 million in space below the luxury tax. That should give them enough flexibility to re-sign both players and still be able to avoid it, even if they temporarily go above the $162 million threshold. Re-signing both players should occupy the majority of their decision-making since they already have 12 other players rostered, including their first-round pick.
2023-24 SALARY SITUATION
Players rostered: 14
Guaranteed salaries: $152.3 million
Non-guaranteed salaries: $300,000
Total salary: $152.6 million
Luxury tax space: $9 million
Apron space: $16.5 million
Second apron space: $26.5 million
Spending power:
Non-taxpayer mid-level exception: $11.4 million
Bi-annual exception: $4.5 million
Rui Hachimura trade exception: $6,263,188 (expires February 9, 2024)
Bradley Beal
Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
2023-24 salary: $46,741,590
Remaining salary guaranteed: $207,740,400 through 2026-27
Additional notes:
$49 million player option in 2026-27
No-trade clause
15 percent trade bonus (expected to be valued at $475,230)
Kristaps Porzingis
(Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images)
2023-24 salary: $36,016,200 (player option)
Remaining salary guaranteed: $36,016,200
Additional notes:
Eligible to extend through June 30, 2023 for up to four years, projected at $180.1 million
If he opts in, he can extend for up to four years, projected at $220.6 million.
Kyle Kuzma
Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports
2023-24 salary: $13,000,000 (player option)
Remaining salary guaranteed: $13,000,000
Additional notes:
Eligible to extend through June 30, 2023 for up to four years, projected at $69.9 million
If he opts in, he can extend for up to four years, $81.5 million.
Daniel Gafford
Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports
2023-24 salary: $12,402,000
Remaining salary guaranteed: $40,182,480 through 2025-26
Monte Morris
Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports
2023-24 salary: $9,800,926
Remaining salary guaranteed: $9,800,926
Additional notes:
Eligible to extend starting on July 1 for up to four years, projected at $75 million
Delon Wright
(Photo by Takashi Aoyama/Getty Images)
2023-24 salary: $8,195,122
Remaining salary guaranteed: $8,195,122
Deni Avdija
2023-24 salary: $6,263,188
Remaining salary guaranteed: $6,263,188
Additional notes:
Eligible to sign a rookie-scale extension starting this offseason through the day before the regular season begins for up to a five year deal
Johnny Davis
2023-24 salary: $5,050,800
Remaining salary guaranteed: $17,088,189 through 2025-26
Corey Kispert
2023-24 salary: $3,722,040
Remaining salary guaranteed: $9,427,928 through 2025-26
Anthony Gill
2023-24 salary: $1,997,238
Remaining salary guaranteed: $1,997,238
Jordan Goodwin
2023-24 salary: $1,927,896
Remaining salary guaranteed: $300,000
Additional notes:
His 2023-24 salary is only $300,000 guaranteed and increases to $963,948 if not waived before September 1, 2023
His 2024-25 salary is only $325,590 guaranteed but increases to 50 percent guaranteed if not waived by September 1, 2024
Isaiah Todd
2023-24 salary: $1,836,090
Remaining salary guaranteed: $1,836,090
Additional notes:
He has a team option in 2024-25 worth $1,988,598
Xavier Cooks
2023-24 salary: $1,719,864
Remaining salary guaranteed: $1,719,864
Additional notes:
His 2024-25 salary is non-guaranteed
He has a non-guaranteed team option in 2025-26 worth $2,187,451
Kendrick Nunn
Cap hold: $6,825,000
Type of free agent: Early Bird (unrestricted)
Taj Gibson
Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports
Cap hold: $1,989,698
Type of free agent: Non Bird (unrestricted)
Jay Huff
Cap hold: $1,774,999
Type of free agent: Non Bird (restricted)
Quenton Jackson
Cap hold: $1,774,999
Type of free agent: Non Bird (restricted)
2023 Pick No. 8
2023-24 salary: $5,969,520
Remaining salary guaranteed: $27,156,613 through 2026-27
Additional notes: HoopsHype and ForTheWin’s draft expert Bryan Kalbrosky has the Wizards selecting Cason Wallace with the 8th overall selection in his most recent mock draft.
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