Wittenmyer & Williams: Will Cincinnati Reds make 2024 MLB playoffs? See our predictions
Welcome to Wittenmyer & Williams – a point/counterpoint column from Enquirer Reds reporter Gordon Wittenmyer and columnist Jason Williams. Today, they make predictions for the 2024 Reds season.
Williams: Time for some bonus, end-of-the-year content: Our free 2024 predictions.
Wittenmyer: And worth every penny. I mean, it’s kind of hard to make predictions on the Reds when there’s six weeks left in free agency and trade talks, right?
Williams: That brings me to prediction No. 1: The Reds are done making big moves. They’ve already shown they’re not giving up players that teams want for available starting pitchers. The Opening Day roster is basically set with maybe some tweaks to the bullpen.
Wittenmyer: So you’re also predicting Jonathan India’s in the Opening Day lineup?
Williams: Yes. You’re not one of those people who still thinks the Reds are actively shopping India, are you?
Wittenmyer: I just don’t know where he’s going to play with all those young guys and the addition of Jeimer Candelario to the infield. Who are you sending to Louisville to start the season?
Williams: Prediction No. 2: Elly De La Cruz will start the season in the minor leagues. Another prediction: He’ll tear it up at Louisville and make his 2024 Reds debut on May 10, when Cincinnati begins a 10-game west coast trip in San Francisco.
Wittenmyer: Talk about bold predictions. You’re jumping right in with both feet. Well as long as we’re talking about young infielders, here’s one: Noelvi Marte wins the second Reds NL Rookie of the Year award in four years.
Williams: I’m going to predict that closer Alexis Diaz will not lead the team in wins for the first time in three years (9 in 2023, 7 in 2022). In fact, it will be Graham Ashcraft, who might have proven he was the Reds’ toughest starter last season when he tried to pitch with a broken toe. I’ll say he wins 11 games.
Wittenmyer: You’re right about the tough guy part. But you’re wrong on who leads the team in wins. That’s going to be Nick Martinez, the new guy. He’s going to wind up with more wins (14) than any Red has had since Luis Castillo had 15 in 2019. This guy is finally going to get a chance to start and he’s going to run with it right before he opts out of his contract at the end of the year.
Williams: Sounds like you’re saying Martinez is going to be an All-Star. My All-Stars are Diaz, Matt McLain and Jeimer Candelario.
Wittenmyer: Holy crap. Three All-Stars for the first time since 2018. That’s a little too bold for my blood, but I do think they get two in 2024. And yes, one is Martinez, who’s also going to lead the rotation in ERA. The other Reds All-Star: Will Benson.
Williams: Holy crap is right. You’re taking that bold thing to a whole other level.
Wittenmyer: Dude, Benson was one of the best hitters in the league the last three or four months of the season. People have been waiting for that since he was drafted in the first round by Cleveland, and I think he picks up where he left off.
Williams: OK, how about home runs? I got a bold one for ya – Candelario. He’s coming off a career-best 22 home runs, and he’s moving to Great American Ball Park. I like him to hit 27 homers in 2024 to lead the team. All those doubles he’s been hitting in his career are going to lead to a few more going over the fence at his new ballpark.
Wittenmyer: I’m going to go one better on that. In fact, two better. I say Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand both hit 30 home runs and battle down the final stretch for the team lead.
Williams: Nobody has hit 30 for the Reds since 2021.
Wittenmyer: That’s right, and there isn’t a guy on the roster who’s ever hit 30 in his life. There’s also nobody on the roster who’s ever made 30 starts as a pitcher. And the guy who’s going to do that in 2024 is Andrew Abbott.
Williams: You mean the guy you said wasn’t handling the workload the last month or two of the season?
Wittenmyer: Exactly. And he answered the bell every time they asked him to anyway. He’s ready for 30.
Williams: I don’t see Abbott getting more starts than Ashcraft, who led the team with 26 despite missing the last month after trying to pitch through that toe injury. Ashcraft will lead the team in starts again.
Wittenmyer: Between Ashcraft, Abbott and Martinez, I’ll give you this much: The rotation in 2024 is going to be more than a full ERA point better than it was in 2023 even if they don’t trade for another pitcher before spring training. In fact, the Reds won’t be getting a starter at the trade deadline for the second straight year but this time it’ll be because they’re not looking for one.
Williams: So you’re predicting they make the playoffs?
Wittenmyer: You might want to ask what I think of the bullpen before going there. They haven’t done enough to help that overworked, overachieving group since the season ended, and that’s a problem.
Williams: Still six weeks before spring training to address that. Are you avoiding my question about the playoffs?
Wittenmyer: I got your playoff answer right here, pal. The Reds are going to win more games in 2024 than they did in 2023. And miss the playoffs by more games than they did. Mostly because there’s still six weeks for the big-money Chicago Cubs to finally open their wallets and spend on some of the free agents who are left. And don’t forget the Cardinals added three starting pitchers.
Williams: Trust the process, son.
Contact Gordon Wittenmyer at gwittenmyer@enquirer.com and on X @GDubMLB. Reach Jason Williams at jwilliams@enquirer.com and @jwilliamscincy.
This article originally appeared on Cincinnati Enquirer: Will Cincinnati Reds make 2024 MLB playoffs? See our predictions
