With win over Raiders, Lions have realistic path to the No. 1 seed in the NFC

The Detroit Lions haven't won a division title in three decades, so it's strange to think the NFC North race might be decided for Detroit already.

Here's what's even harder to comprehend: The Lions have a very good chance of ending up as the No. 1 seed in the NFC.

Seriously. Detroit Lions and No. 1 seed. Same sentence.

These are wild times in Detroit. The Lions thoroughly outplayed the Las Vegas Raiders, made some key mistakes that kept the game close but still cruised to a 26-14 win on Monday. The Lions are 6-2 after the win. The result was never really in doubt. It was just question of how long the Lions would let the Raiders hang around.

With the win, the Lions are up two games in the NFC North, and Kirk Cousins' season-ending injury should eliminate their only real competition for the division title.

The Lions haven't yet lost to a bad opponent. The Seahawks and Ravens, the two teams to beat Detroit this season, are among the best in the NFL. The Ravens loss was an ugly blowout, but it wasn't an unreasonable loss. The Lions are pretty good at beating the teams they should beat.

And for the rest of the season, their schedule is loaded with teams they should beat.

Can the Lions get the No. 1 seed in the NFC?

No. 1 seeds often go to the best team in each conference — but not always. Some teams will have much bigger schedule advantages than others. The 2023 Detroit Lions might be in that category.

The Lions have a much easier schedule than any other NFC contender, mostly because the NFC North is horrible. The Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers are bad teams. The Minnesota Vikings will probably be bad, with Cousins done for the season due to an Achilles injury. In the NFC East, the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys will beat each other up. The Seattle Seahawks are going to make sure the San Francisco 49ers don't walk to a division title. Meanwhile, the Lions are very unlikely to be tested in their division. That's huge.

The Eagles, Cowboys, 49ers and Seahawks are the four most likely teams to get the No. 1 seed, along with the Lions. Here is where each of those teams ranked in remaining strength of schedule before Monday, according to Tankathon: Dallas fifth, San Francisco sixth, Seattle eighth, Philadelphia 14th, Detroit 29th. That's the NFC North-leading Lions with the fourth-easiest remaining schedule in the NFL. Every contender in the NFC has more challenging games than the Lions, who don't face a tough test until Week 17 at the Cowboys (for comparison, the Eagles' next six games are all difficult: vs. Cowboys, at Chiefs, vs. Bills, vs. 49ers, at Cowboys, at Seahawks).

The Lions are probably not the best team in the NFL. Viable Super Bowl contenders very rarely lose by 32 points, like the Lions did to the Ravens in Week 7. But if you get the top seed, you're two home wins from a Super Bowl. The Lions have never been to a Super Bowl, but they'd have a great chance in that scenario.

The world might not be ready for the "No. 1 seeded Detroit Lions," but it's a lot closer to becoming reality than you think.

Detroit has tough time pulling away

The Raiders made it interesting Monday, mostly because Detroit kept moving up and down the field but found a way to not score touchdowns. The Raiders gave up 263 yards to the Lions in the first half but mostly held Detroit to field goals. Josh Jacobs' touchdown in the second quarter cut Detroit's lead to 9-7.

The Lions were able to take back control of the game before halftime. Rookie tight end Sam LaPorta caught an 18-yard touchdown from Jared Goff with 27 seconds left before halftime, and Detroit had a 16-7 lead. The defense had done its job, holding Jimmy Garoppolo to 31 passing yards in the first half. The offense moved the ball just fine. It just couldn't punch it into the end zone until the final minute of the first half.

The Lions let the Raiders hang around in the second half, too. A truly awful interception by Goff early in the third quarter was returned 75 yards by Marcus Peters for a touchdown, and despite the Lions being obviously better to that point, the Raiders trailed just 16-14. After that, the Lions had a controversial fumble. It appeared that Craig Reynolds was down on a goal-line run, but officials saw Maxx Crosby rake the ball out and come out of the pile with it, so they called it a fumble. A replay wasn't conclusive, so the call stood.

Through all of the Lions' turnovers and red-zone issues, they were never really threatened. In years past, all those mistakes would've cost the Lions a win. They're good enough now to overcome many errors and win easily.

The Lions' division title seems inevitable, but it will still be a big deal when it happens. That needs to come before a serious look at whether the NFC playoffs will go through Detroit. But it won't be long before that conversation starts happening, as long as the Lions keep beating bad teams like they did Monday.