Will the Wisconsin Badgers win their remaining games on 2023 schedule? ESPN's Football Power Index offers predictions.
The Wisconsin Badgers are just two games into their 2023 Big Ten schedule but a victory over the Iowa Hawkeyes on Saturday could go a long way in their quest to win the division and get back to the conference championship game.
What's the current probability they'll play in the Big Ten title game in less than two months?
According to ESPN's Football Power Index, Luke Fickell's team enters its home game against Iowa with a 67.3% chance to win the Big Ten West Division. A win over the Hawkeyes will no doubt elevate that percentage even more.
ESPN's FPI is a predictive rating system that measures team strength and predicts game and season outcomes based on 20,000 simulations.
It offers a ranking for all 133 FBS teams, though that's not its main goal. The Badgers are ranked 23rd of all teams in the FPI true rankings vs. FBS teams.
Here's a closer look at some of the outcomes ESPN's analytics program predicts for the Badgers the rest of the season:
How many games will the Wisconsin football team win for 2023 schedule?
ESPN's simulator says the Badgers' projected win-loss record will be 9.0-3.7. The record counts for any potential conference championship game. The totals give many decimal numbers because it may not round to a whole number because of differing number of games played in each simulation.
The Badgers, who are on a three-game winning streak, are 4-1.
The simulator only gives the Badgers a 1.1% chance to win out. This includes a likely Big Ten title game.
What's the percentage the Wisconsin Badgers win the Big Ten?
The projections are just 10.4%. If the Badgers win the Big Ten West, they would likely be massive underdogs in the title game. That's because Ohio State, Penn State and Michigan are all ranked in the top 10 in every college football poll and are not only battling for a conference title but are also in contention for a College Football Playoff berth.
What is the Wisconsin football team's chances of making the College Football Playoff?
Not good. ESPN gives them a 0.3% chance to make it to the CFP as of Thursday, though this percentage can change based on other outcomes as the season progresses. Wisconsin has never been one of the four teams in the CFP since the tournament's inception in 2014.
Only teams from the Big Ten East have made it to the CFP. Ohio State, the inaugural champion in 2014, has been a part of the CFP in five of the nine seasons. Michigan has been selected the last two years, while Michigan State was in the playoff in 2015.
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There have been two seasons (2017 and 2018) in which no Big Ten teams were among the final four teams. Fickell got his undefeated Cincinnati team to the playoff during the 2021 season.
The Badgers would have to win out to even sniff the CFP this season. What's the probability that happens?
Here's a look at the Badgers' remaining regular season schedule and win chances based on ESPN's analytics, not including a Big Ten championship game:
Iowa at Wisconsin (Oct. 14)
After Wisconsin won four straight in the rivalry from 2016 through 2019, the teams have alternated wins, with Iowa taking two of the last three. Both of the Hawkeyes' wins have come at home. With Saturday's game at Camp Randall, will Wisconsin reclaim the Heartland Trophy? Former Badgers backup quarterback Deacon Hill now starts for the Hawkeyes.
A win would give Wisconsin a two-game lead in the Big Ten West standings, including the tiebreaker over Iowa (5-1, 2-1 Big Ten), with six games to play.
Iowa's FPI ranking as of Thursday: 35
What ESPN's win probability says as of Thursday: Wisconsin has a 66.6% chance of winning vs. Iowa
Wisconsin vs. Iowa: Badgers safety Hunter Wohler breaks down the test of defending the Hawkeyes tight ends
Wisconsin at Illinois (Oct. 21)
Wisconsin will no doubt want some revenge after last season. The 34-10 loss to Bret Bielema and the Fighting Illini set the stage for Paul Chryst's firing a day later. Illinois went on to finish second in the Big Ten West but it has stumbled mightily out of the gates this year. It's 2-4 overall and 0-3 in the league. All of the Illini's Big Ten losses (Penn State, Purdue and Nebraska) have been by double digits.
Illinois' FPI raking as of Thursday: 76
What ESPN's win probability says as of Thursday: Wisconsin has a 77.5% win probability vs. Illinois
Ohio State at Wisconsin (Oct. 28)
The Badgers haven't defeated the Buckeyes since 2010, under the lights at Camp Randall Stadium in one of the most memorable moments in program history. Ohio State came in as No. 1 but behind an opening 97-yard kickoff return from David Gilreath, Wisconsin scored the huge upset, 31-18, and went on to share the Big Ten title.
Ohio State (5-0, 2-0) will again come to Camp Randall for a night game as one of the top-ranked teams in the country later this month and could be undefeated. The Buckeyes face Purdue this Saturday and then have a showdown with Penn State Oct. 21.
Ohio State's FPI ranking as of Thursday: 1
What ESPN's win probability says as of Thursday: Wisconsin has just a 16.9% win probability vs. Ohio State
Wisconsin at Indiana (Nov. 4)
Indiana, which has the unfortunate luck of of being in the powerhouse Big Ten East, is 2-3 overall and 0-2. And it won't get any easier before the Hoosiers' game against the Badgers in a few weeks. In two of their next three games, they play Michigan (Oct. 14) and Penn State (Oct. 28).
The matchup between the Badgers and Hoosiers will be the first since the 2020 pandemic season. Indiana won that game 14-6, at Camp Randall Stadium. Before that, Wisconsin won 10 straight games over Indiana from 2005 through 2017 with a margin of victory of 33.2 points.
Indiana's FPI ranking as of Thursday: 81
What ESPN's win probability says as of Thursday: Wisconsin has an 81.1% win probability vs. Indiana
Northwestern at Wisconsin (Nov. 11)
Northwestern was a program in turmoil this summer after hazing allegations led to the firing of its longtime head coach Pat Fitzgerald, who's now suing the university. The Wildcats are 3-3 and 1-2 in the Big Ten with a bye this week.
Northwestern's FPI ranking as of Thursday: 88
What ESPN's win probability says as of Thursday: Wisconsin has an 88.7% win probability vs Northwestern
Nebraska at Wisconsin (Nov. 18)
Since Nebraska joined the Big Ten, the Badgers have owned the Huskers, winning 11 of the 12 matchups, including a thrilling comeback last year. Wisconsin hasn't lost to Nebraska since 2012.
Nebraska, which is led by new coach Matt Rhule, is 3-3 overall and 1-2 in Big Ten play with a bye this week.
Nebraska's FPI ranking as of Thursday: 68
What ESPN's win probability says as of Thursday: Wisconsin has an 82.8% win probability vs. Nebraska
Wisconsin at Minnesota (Nov. 25)
Wisconsin is in uncharted territory in this rivalry. After defeating Minnesota in 14 straight years from 2004 through 2017, the Badgers have lost in three of the past five years to the Golden Gophers and in back-to-back seasons for the first time since 1993-94. And you have to go back to 1984-87 for the last time they lost three or more straight games in the rivalry.
Will the Badgers get Paul Bunyan's Axe back this year on the road? The Golden Gophers are just 3-3 and 1-2 in the Big Ten with a bye this week. They play Iowa Oct. 21.
Minnesota's FPI ranking as of Thursday: 62
What ESPN's win probability says as of Thursday: Wisconsin has a 72.7% win probability vs. Minnesota
This article originally appeared on Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: What are odds Wisconsin football team wins rest of games on schedule?
