Wide Receiver TD Regression

Touchdowns are the holy grail of fantasy football. The memorable fantasy performances always involve multiple touchdowns, and it is very difficult for a fantasy asset to reach the upper echelons of their position without prolific touchdown numbers. Only five wide receivers have finished in the top five since 2010 without scoring double-digit touchdowns, and Calvin Johnson’s bizarre five-touchdown season in 2012 is the only top-five performance from a wide receiver with fewer than eight touchdowns over that span.

Considering how important touchdowns are to elite wide receivers, the next logical question is are some wide receivers better at scoring touchdowns than others? The short answer is yes. There have been 66 instances of a wide receiver scoring double-digit touchdowns in a single season since 2007. There are certainly some odd, one-off names like Laurent Robinson and Lance Moore in the list, but the expected names pop up frequently. Calvin Johnson shows up four times, Brandon Marshall shows up three, and Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas have both accomplished the feat each of the last three seasons.

The longer answer, however, is yes…sort of. Though the big names pop up frequently, Johnson has only once managed double-digit touchdowns in two straight seasons and has two five touchdown seasons over the last six years. Larry Fitzgerald had three straight big touchdowns seasons from 2007-2009, but he did not reach double digits again until 2013. Of the 36 wide receivers to post a double-digit receiving touchdown season from 2007-2013, 15 players managed to score 10 or more touchdowns in multiple seasons, and only 10 managed the feat in back-to-back seasons.

The most concerning fact when examining big touchdown scorers is how steep the falloff can be from one season to the next. Since 2007, receivers have on average seen a 44% decline in touchdown production following a double-digit touchdown season, and even reliable touchdown scorers like Jordy Nelson or A.J. Green have seen steep falloffs in touchdown production from year to year.

Scoring touchdowns is hard, and scoring a lot of touchdowns as a receiver over multiple years is even more difficult. Projecting a player for big touchdown numbers this season simply because they did it last year is a recipe for disaster. Each receiver is a different case, and each has a different likelihood of repeating the feat next season.

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Great Chance

The easiest wide receiver to project for 10-plus touchdowns in 2015 is Odell Beckham, who scored 12 touchdowns in as many games last year. The arguments for why Beckham will continue on as a fantasy monster litter the internet, so explaining why he could hit double-digit scores next season seems like a waste of time.

There are some reasons he could see his touchdown total fall his second time around the league. The first is his unsustainable conversion rate from inside the 10-yard line. Beckham scored a touchdown on six of his 10 targets inside the 10-yard line last season while the league conversion rate on passes inside the 10 was just 35%. Beckham’s ball skills should make him more effective than league average in scoring territory, but not that much better. Beckham also scored four touchdowns of 35 yards or more and two touchdowns of more than 60 yards in only 12 games. Again, Beckham’s abilities could lead to more long touchdowns than average, but that pace is unsustainable.

Beckham is the best bet of the group to repeat as a double-digit touchdown player, but his case is a great reminder to take nothing for granted.

Definitely, Maybe

Aside from Beckham, there are a lot of players who on paper look like great bets to continue their prolific touchdown numbers, but history shows several will fall short.

Mike Evans’ rookie seasons was built on the back of touchdowns. 40.6% of Evans standard fantasy points came via the touchdown last season, which was the sixth-highest mark among the top 100 wide receivers. Evans failed to reach five receptions in 10 games, be he managed to score the 12th most points per game among wide receivers by scoring in nine of his 15 contests.

With Vincent Jackson still around and the passing offense unlikely to take a big step forward even with Jameis Winston in town, Evans will need to continue scoring touchdowns to remain in the WR1 conversation. Luckily for Evans’ owners, scoring touchdowns is something he should continue to do.

Though Evans’ 40% red-zone conversion rate is high, he has the skill set and physique to be very efficient near the goal line. He also could get more chances in 2015. Though Winston is unlikely to dramatically improve on the 3,623 yards and 21 touchdowns Josh McCown and Mike Glennon combined for last season, he should turn the ball over less. Fewer interceptions matched with a better running game and a competent play caller could give Evans more than the 15 red-zone chances he saw in 2015.

There is not a lot of room for Mike Evans to make a huge jump in his sophomore year, but there are good signs he can at least match his touchdown numbers from last year.

Alshon Jeffery is an interesting case because we do not know what his target load will look like in 2015. With Brandon Marshall gone, there are 17 more red-zone targets to go around in Chicago's receiving corps, but rookie WR Kevin White certainly has the skill set to claim the vast majority of those looks. New OC Adam Gase ran a high-volume passing attack which targeted its No. 1 receiver plenty in the red zone in Denver, but that was with Peyton Manning running the show. With Jay Cutler, could Gase adopt a more run-balanced approach?

Those questions are concerning, but the reality is Jeffery is a No. 1 receiver in what should be a decent offense. 20 red-zone targets are well within reach, and he should rebound with a few long touchdowns after not scoring any outside of 30 yards last season. Together, that should be enough to get him over the hump.

Plausible

Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas are the most interesting big scorers from last season. Both are big, strong receivers who profile as touchdown mavens and both have an established history of touchdown success. The problem is both are trying to become just the sixth player in the Super Bowl era to have double-digit touchdowns in four straight seasons. The likelihood is at least one will fail.

Of the two, Bryant feels like the best bet. He had an unsustainable eight touchdowns outside the red zone last year including three from more than 60 yards, but he also saw just 15 targets in the red zone. With the Dallas running game set to regress, the added looks he should get along the goal line could be enough to offset some of the regression in his long touchdown numbers. He also scored 16 times last season, meaning he has a long way to fall before hitting single-digit scores.

Demaryius is tougher to trust. After seeing just 41 red zone targets in 2013 and 2014 combined, Thomas was targeted 39 times in the red zone including 18 times inside the 10 last season. He only managed to convert 15% of his red zone targets into touchdowns and only scored on 22% of his targets inside the 10. Both rates are well below league average.

With Gary Kubiak bringing a new emphasis on the run this season, Thomas’ red zone targets are certain to fall. He will have to become much more efficient around the end zone to maintain the touchdown numbers we have come to expect from Peyton Manning’s No. 1 target.

Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson became the third pair of wide receivers in as many seasons to record double-digit touchdowns in a single year. Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker performed the feat in both 2012 and 2013, but Decker was held to five touchdowns last season after bolting to the Jets in free agency. Both A.J. Green and Marvin Jones broke the 10-touchdown barrier in 2013, but injuries caused both to fall short last season. Can Cobb and Nelson repeat like Thomas and Decker? The answer is likely no, but there are some reasons for optimism with both.

Nelson topped 10 touchdowns for the second time in his career in 2014 and has averaged 10.75 touchdowns a game over the last four seasons despite an injury-shortened campaign in 2012. Those numbers suggest he is a good bet for 10 touchdowns again this season, but the manner of his touchdowns is a concern.

Seven of Nelson’s 13 touchdowns last season were from 40-yards or more including five from 59-yards or farther. He only had six touchdowns of 60-yards or more in his career before last season. There is simply no way he scores that many long touchdowns again. An improvement on his 17.8% red-zone conversion rate could help Nelson offset some of that regression, but his touchdown upside is a concern for 2015.

The most surprising aspect of Cobb’s 12-touchdown performance in 2014 was where he was scoring the touchdowns. After seeing less than 10 red-zone targets in each of his first three years in the league, Cobb garnered 27 red-zone targets including 14 looks inside the 10-yard line last season. He converted 37% of his red-zone targets into touchdowns including 57% of his targets inside the 10.

At 5-10, 191 pounds, Cobb does not fit mold of a dominant red-zone weapon. The safe bet is his conversion rates and red-zone targets fall this year, but any wide receiver playing with Aaron Rodgers deserves the benefit of the doubt. It is unlikely Cobb replicates his 12-touchdown performance in 2015, but it is not out of the question.

Another receiver who does not fit the traditional touchdown-scoring mold is Antonio Brown. Brown’s 21 touchdowns over the last two seasons are the fifth most in the league and the third most among wide receivers. Brown has seen his touchdown total increase every season, and was targeted 35 times in the red zone last year.

The question is how long can this continue? Brown converted just 22.8% of his red-zone targets last season and only a third of his targets inside the 10. With Martavis Bryant sure to become a bigger factor inside the red zone in 2015, the pure volume which allowed Brown to hang with the elite touchdown scorers may disappear.

Still clearly the No. 1 receiver in what should be a voluminous passing attack, it is within the realm of possibilities Brown hits the 10-touchdown mark again this season, but a return to the 7-to-8 touchdown range would not be surprising.

Not Happening

As for Torrey Smith, Jeremy Maclin and Mike Wallace, the prospects of another season of touchdown superiority are slim to none.

Jeremy Maclin’s case is the easiest to make. Alex Smith has thrown for more than 20 touchdowns exactly once in his career and finished last season without any touchdown passes to wide receivers. More troubling for Maclin owners, the most touchdowns Alex Smith has ever thrown to single wide receiver in a single season was five to Dwayne Bowe in 2013. Safe to say 10 is out of reach.

Torrey Smith’s case is not as cut and dry as Maclin’s, but it is close. Smith converted on 43.8% of his red zone looks last season after averaging a 29.7% conversion rate his first three years in the league. Now he heads to a less prolific offense with established red zone options in Anquan Boldin and bounce-back candidate Vernon Davis. Take the under on 10 touchdowns.

Mike Wallace is the most interesting of the three because he already had a 10-touchdown season to his name before last year and now has four seasons with at least eight scores in his career.

Last season was different, though. After recording just 10 red-zone touchdowns total through his first five years in the league, Wallace scored nine times from inside the 20 last season and did not have a single touchdown longer than 32 yards. The 21 red-zone targets were the most of his career, and his 42.8% red-zone conversion rate was well above his 16.9% career mark.

The heavy usage near the goal line likely stemmed from Miami’s lack of red-zone weapons. That should not be an issue in Minnesota, where Kyle Rudolph and Charles Johnson both project as solid red-zone options. There is also this guy named Adrian Peterson who may siphon a few red-zone looks.

Wallace has a long history of touchdown success, but he will need to find his long-touchdown form to hit double-digit scores again this season. With Teddy Bridgewater under center in Minnesota, that does not seem particularly likely.