Why Michigan basketball's No. 1-ranked class could pave the road to the Final Four
Michigan basketball got its first win in more than eight months this week when it signed its six-player class of 2021 during the early signing period.
The combination of five-star forwards Caleb Houstan and Moussa Diabate, four-star guards Frankie Collins and Kobe Bufkin, four-star forward Isaiah Barnes and three-star forward Will Tschetter gave U-M and coach Juwan Howard the No. 1 class in the country, according to 247Sports’ rankings. (It’s also Michigan’s best recruiting class since Howard was suiting up in the Maize and Blue in the early 1990s.)
Of course, Michigan isn’t locked in at No. 1; there’s still another signing period — it starts April 14 and ends May 19 — and while many of the top recruits are already committed, if not signed, there’s always the possibility of a shakeup at the top. Say, for example, a certain junior playing in Ypsilanti deciding to reclassify from 2022 to 2021 and pushing Michigan State’s class from No. 6 to No. 1?
But that’s a question for the future; in the here-and-now, Michigan is No. 1 (off the court, at least). So what does that mean for the Wolverines’ chances on the court, when this class arrives for the 2021-22 season? We went through the archives to see how the past 10 No. 1 recruiting classes fared when they hit the hardwood (plus the class of 2020, which tips off soon).
[ Juwan Howard breaks down Michigan's No. 1-ranked recruiting class ]
The verdict: Having the No. 1 recruiting class doesn’t guarantee you a title, but it definitely points you in the right direction. Of the 10 No. 1 classes from 2010-19, six advanced as far as the Elite Eight in the NCAA tournament, four made the Final Four and three won the whole thing.
Read on to find out which was which …
2020: Kentucky
Five-stars: 2; Four-stars: 4; Three-stars: 0
The buzz: No one’s counting out the Wildcats just yet, but no one’s locking them in for a title, either. The USA TODAY coaches’ poll has them ninth, the AP has them 10th and Vegas bookmakers are giving them the sixth-best odds of winning it all.
2019: Memphis
Five-stars: 2; Four-stars: 5; Three-stars: 0.
The buzz: This class’s top ranking was fueled by coach Penny Hardaway’s landing of James Wiseman — the nation’s top recruit, a Memphis prep star and a longtime family friend of Hardaway. Unfortunately for the Tigers, Wiseman played just three games after the NCAA ruled he had improperly received benefits from Hardaway prior to Hardaway’s hiring at Memphis. Fellow freshman Precious Achiuwa led the Tigers with 15.8 points and 10.8 rebounds a game, but they struggled to finish 21-10 with a fifth-place finish in the AAC — dropping out of the AP Top 25 in late January — before the conference and NCAA tourneys were canceled in March.
2018: Duke
Five-stars: 4; Four-stars: 1; Three-stars: 0.
The buzz: The class was as good as advertised, with the Blue Devils going 29-5 in the regular season and earning a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament, thanks to dominating play from its Big 3 of top-10 2019 NBA draft picks: Zion Williamson (No. 1 overall), R.J. Barrett (3) and Cam Reddish (10). But there was no “One Shining Moment” for the trio, as they were eliminated in the Elite Eight by Tom Izzo, Cassius Winston and Michigan State.
2017: Duke
Five-stars: 4; Four-stars: 2; Three-stars: 1.
The buzz: The Blue Devils had five scorers average double-digit points en route to a 26-7 regular season and a No. 2 seed in the NCAA tournament; four of them were freshmen — Marvin Bagley III (21.0 points), Gary Trent Jr. (14.5), Wendell Carter Jr. (13.5) and Treyon Duval (10.3). But they were knocked out in the Elite Eight by No. 1 seed Kansas, which had 2017’s ninth-ranked recruiting class.
[ 'Freak' Michigan freshman draws a comparison to Jordan Poole ]
2016: Duke
Five-stars: 4; Four-stars: 1; Three-stars: 1.
The buzz: Jayson Tatum, the nation’s No. 4 recruit, had a great season, averaging 16.8 points, 7.3 rebounds and 2.1 assists a game. Harry Giles, the nation’s No. 2 recruit, did not, at 3.9/3.8/0.3, which goes a long way toward explain the Blue Devils’ seven losses in ACC play, 27-8 regular-season record overall and a loss in the second round of the NCAA tournament. Tatum and Giles ended up as NBA first-rounders while fellow freshman Frank Jackson was taken first in the second round.
2015: Kentucky
Five-stars: 3; Four-stars: 3; Three-stars: 1
The buzz: Jamal Murray was electric, averaging 20 points a game and earning a top-10 draft pick. Fellow five-stars Isaiah Briscoe and Skal Labissiere were less so, averaging just 16.2 points combined. The Wildcats were solid enough in SEC play to take the regular-season and tournament crowns, but were upset by UCLA and Ohio State in non-conference play and eliminated in the second round of the NCAA tournament as a No. 4 seed.
[ Michigan, Michigan State both ranked in AP Top 25 to begin season ]
2014: Duke
Five-stars: 3; Four-stars: 1; Three-stars: 0.
The buzz: Three ultra-blue-chippers for the Blue Devils — Jahlil Okafor (3), Justise Winslow (12) and Tyus Jones (24) — three first-round NBA picks, and a national title run (including a rout of Michigan State in the Final Four) that really wasn’t close until the final against Wisconsin. Oh, and Grayson Allen, who would stick around for four seasons becoming the Dukie everyone loved to hate. Sometimes, it all goes according to plan.
2013: Kentucky
Five-stars: 6; Four-stars: 1; Three-stars: 1
The buzz: The Wildcats played four ranked teams in non-conference play — No. 2 Michigan State, No. 6 Louisville, No. 18 North Carolina and No. 20 Baylor — and lost to three of them (beating only their in-state rivals). They also lost twice to Arkansas in the regular season, and twice to Florida in an eight-day span ending their regular season and the SEC tournament. And then Julius Randle and the Harrison twins (Aaron and Andrew) got hot — just ask the Wolverines, whom they beat in the Elite Eight — and the ’Cats rolled to a national title. (Only Randle and Rochester Hills’ James Young jumped to the NBA, though.)
[ Why it's Juwan Howard and Tom Izzo against the basketball world in 2021 ]
2012: Kentucky
Five-stars: 3; Four-stars: 1; Three-stars: 0.
The buzz: Big man Nerlens Noel was the headliner, but he never got quite on track, averaging 10.5 points and 9.5 rebounds per game. Nor did the Wildcats’ three other freshmen — Archie Goodwin, Alex Poythress and Willie Cauley-Stein — as two early non-conference losses to Notre Dame and Baylor dropped Kentucky out of the AP poll and a first-round loss in the SEC tournament left the Wildcats in the NIT, rather than the Big Dance. Even that didn’t go right, as Big Blue was bounced in the first round — on the road, no less — by Robert Morris, 59-57.
2011: Kentucky
Five-stars: 4; Four-stars: 0; Three-stars: 0.
The buzz: Who needs four-stars when you have Anthony Davis? “The Brow” cleaned up inside with 14.2 points, 10.4 rebounds and 4.7 blocks per game as Kentucky lost just twice all year — on the road to Indiana in mid-December and to Vanderbilt in the SEC tournament. After that, the Wildcats won all six of their NCAA tournament games by at least eight points — no buzzer-beaters for them — including the title game, in which Davis scored just six points but had 16 rebounds, three steals and six blocks. (Not surprisingly, he was drafted No. 1 overall and fellow Kentucky freshman Michael Kidd-Gilchrist went No. 2.)
[ Full list: Michigan football and basketball recruits (with highlight videos) ]
2010: Kentucky
Five-stars: 4; Four-stars: 1; Three-stars: 1.
The buzz: In John Calipari’s second season in Lexington, he signed three of the nation’s top 10 — Brandon Knight (5), Enes Kanter (8) and Terrence Jones (9). Only two — Knight and Jones — ever suited up for Calipari, though, as Kanter was ruled permanently ineligible for accepting more than $33,000 from his Turkish basketball organization. Still, Knight and Jones (along with fellow freshman Doron Lamb) were good enough to carry the Wildcats to a 25-8 record entering the NCAA tournament, and four March wins to make the Final Four. That was it, though, as Kentucky fell, 56-55, to UConn in Houston. Only Knight left for the NBA right away, going eighth to the Pistons.
Contact Ryan Ford at rford@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @theford.
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Michigan basketball's No. 1-ranked class could be path to Final Four
