Why Memphis Grizzlies fans should actually root for LA Lakers to win just enough this season
Watching the Los Angeles Lakers struggle can be satisfying for Memphis Grizzlies fans. However, it still might be prudent to cheer for the purple and gold.
The Grizzlies (45-22) own the Lakers' 2022 first-round top-10 protected pick, and it's setting up to be a photo finish on who gets it. The Lakers (28-37) have one of the NBA's worst records at 2-9 over the past three weeks and have the toughest remaining schedule in the league according to Tankathon.
This either will be the perfect or worse scenario for the Grizzlies. The top-10 protected pick is projected to land on the fringe of the lottery, which would give the Grizzlies a pick in the 11-14 range after having a historically good regular season. But if the Lakers fall apart and become one of the league's 10 worst teams by record, then the pick won't be coming to Memphis.
The Grizzlies got the draft pick in the Steven Adams-Jonas Valanciunas trade in August. The pick was initially received by the Pelicans in the Lakers' trade with Anthony Davis, and the pick will stay in New Orleans if it's in the top 10.
Grizzlies fans may be watching the Golden State Warriors harder than any team in the race for the No. 2 seed, but here's why the Lakers and the draft pick are worth monitoring:
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Where will the Lakers finish?
It's tough sledding for the ninth-seeded Lakers the rest of the season. They have two games remaining against the NBA-leading Phoenix Suns, plus road games against the Warriors, Denver Nuggets, Dallas Mavericks and Utah Jazz. Of their last 17 games, 12 are against teams projected to make the playoffs.
As of March 3, Lakers coach Frank Vogel said the team expects star forward Anthony Davis to return this season. Considering Davis' potential return and the team's standing on the fringe of the playoffs, it's hard to imagine L.A. finishing outside the play-in. The Pelicans (27-39) are 1½ games behind the Lakers. After that, the Portland Trail Blazers are three games back but have injuries galore and have lost six straight games. The San Antonio Spurs are 3½ games back. In order for the Lakers not to make the play-in, the Spurs or Blazers would have to get hot, and that doesn't seem likely. This result bodes well for the Grizzlies' chances of keeping the pick.
The odds
If the Lakers' season finishes in the play-in round, they will be either the ninth or 10th in the West standings. The new NBA Draft format with play-in teams is two seasons old. The NBA changed its lottery system in 2017 to level out odds. Last year, the Spurs and Warriors drafted 12th and 14th, respectively. The Warriors had a 0.4% chance of cracking the top 10 of the lottery, and the Spurs were at 2.4%. The Pelicans and Sacramento Kings drafted 12th and 13th in 2020. Those are the type of odds the Lakers are likely to have unless they plummet below the play-in game.
Why the pick is important
If the pick falls within the top 10, the Grizzlies will get two second-round picks — a Cleveland Cavaliers 2022 pick and a Pelicans 2025 selection. It goes without saying the difference between a lottery pick and two second rounders is substantial.
The last two seasons have seen Chris Duarte, who is averaging 13.2 points as a rookie for the Indiana Pacers, and Tyrese Haliburton, one of the NBA's young emerging point guards, both drafted in the 11-14 range.
Adding a lottery pick as capital after a historic season will allow the Grizzlies to either pair another young talent to their up-and-coming roster, or package it in a trade. It's a great position to be in for Memphis' future.
Contact Damichael Cole at damichael.cole@commercialappeal.com and on Twitter @damichaelc
This article originally appeared on Memphis Commercial Appeal: Memphis Grizzlies NBA draft pick depends on Los Angeles Lakers season
