Why Leonard Fournette is a bad fit for the Buccaneers

When an NFL team acquires a player on the open market or via trade, it’s easy to sit back and say, “Well, that’s not gonna work.” One has to assume that when a player is acquired, the acquiring team’s coaches see something in the player that fits well in that team’s system. And while I’m not going to be the guy to cast aspersions on Buccaneers head coach Bruce Arians’ ability to discern which running backs best fit what he wants to so, Tampa Bay’s Wednesday decision to sign ex-Jaguars running back Leonard Fournette to a one-year, $2 million contract that could bump up to $3.5 million with incentives doesn’t make a ton of sense.

The contract details indicate that the Bucs are on the fence about it, too. If things don’t work out, Fournette is an easy cut, and if it does… well, it’s a great bargain. But based on Fournette’s abilities, and what Arians has traditionally wanted in his running backs, this is a weird one. Arians has been a head coach or offensive coordinator for five NFL teams over 15 years, and only once — with the 2007 Steelers — did any of his teams rank in the top five in rushing attempts. The last time one of Arians’ teams ranked in the top 10 in rushing attempts was with the 2015 Cardinals, and his backs that season weren’t traditional power backs. Chris Johnson and David Johnson were his primary guys — quicker backs who could align in different parts of the formation, and who were assets in the passing game. The 2019 Buccaneers ranked 14th in rushing attempts, 24th in rushing yards, and 15th in rushing touchdowns, and that was with Jameis Winston throwing interceptions all over the place.

What does that mean? It means that traditionally, if you’re going to play running back in a Bruce Arians offense, you won’t be asked to be a “sustainer” — the type of back who gets his work with a ton of carries. You’ll have to make big plays in smaller windows of opportunity. And that’s not Fournette’s game. Last season, per Pro Football Focus, Fournette has 13 rushes of 15 yards or more on 264 carries, and there’s no way he’s getting that many opportunities in this offense.

When looking at the last season in which the Patriots won the Super Bowl, this could be more about Tom Brady than it is about Arians. Halfway through the 2018 season, New England saved their championship opportunity by turning away from an iffy passing game and leading instead with a multi-tiered run game that allowed them to beat the Rams in Super Bowl LIII. While James White was the versatile back in that equation, rookie Sony Michel was the sustainer with the ability to break tackles and create big plays from the backfield. From that perspective, it would make sense to give Brady that kind of back to accentuate a rotation that already includes Ronald Jones, LeSean McCoy, Dare Ogunbowale, Ke’Shawn Vaughn, and Raymond Calais. The Patriots also employed the 247-pound LeGarrette Blount as a goal-line wrecking ball for a time, and Blount led the league with 18 rushing touchdowns in 2016. “Exotic Smashmouth” worked with those iterations of the Patriots, because they had the guys who could handle it.

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So, the hypothetical idea is that in a crowded backfield, Fournette is the finisher. The difference in this case between “in theory” and “in practice” is that Fournette, for all his size and apparent power-based attributes, really isn’t a consistent power back. As I outlined in a recent tape piece on Fournette, his big downfield plays are generally manufactured through blocking and scheme as opposed to his ability to solve box problems with a finishing mentality.

So, if he’s not the finisher, what is he? Fournette caught 76 passes for the Jaguars last season, but that doesn’t automatically make him an asset in the passing game. He’s not a guy you can get tricky with in the formation, and again, if he’s not presented with open space, he tends to implode.

Regarding his pass-blocking, there’s this from Pro Football Focus’ Sam Monson.

Is this the guy you want taking on a blitzing linebacker, protecting Tom Brady in his sunset years? I think not.

Subtract the “workhorse” snaps, because again, they’re not happening in this offense, and what do the Buccaneers have in Leonard Fournette? I think there is the idea of Leonard Fournette, and the reality of Leonard Fournette. The idea is that he’s an under-the-radar power back who just needs to be in the right system. The reality is that there’s a very large difference between a true power back, and a big guy without a lot of burst who runs into people. And unless Fournette is able to transcend what he’s been to date, with decreased opportunity to do so, this deal is nothing more than the Bucs throwing something against the wall and hoping it sticks.