Why Kansas basketball could get upset and not reach Sweet 16 of 2024 NCAA tournament

LAWRENCE — Kansas basketball is a No. 4 seed in this year’s NCAA tournament, and will face No. 13-seed Samford in the round of 64 on Thursday in Salt Lake City.

The Jayhawks (22-10) certainly weren’t done any favors by the selection committee this year. The Bulldogs (29-5) are not just the Southern Conference regular season and tournament champions, but a 3-point shooting team that could give KU trouble in that area. And that’s not the only reason Kansas’ draw, which starts with an 8:55 p.m. (CT) scheduled tip-off against Samford that'll be televised on TBS, is difficult on paper.

Should the Jayhawks advance past the Bulldogs, they’ll face the winner of either No. 5-seed Gonzaga or No. 12-seed McNeese. Gonzaga’s reputation precedes it. And McNeese captured the Southland Conference's regular season and tournament titles.

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Here are 2 reasons Kansas basketball won’t make the Sweet 16

First, it has to be Samford’s 3-point shooting prowess. The Jayhawks are coming in averaging 5.6 makes on threes per game with a 32.9% clip from behind the arc this season, while the Bulldogs are coming in averaging 9.9 makes on threes per game with a 39.3% clip from behind the arc this season. It’s not just that Kansas hasn’t been a team that’ll keep up with opponents offensively, it’s that it could struggle to stop Samford.

Second, it has to be that Gonzaga is potentially waiting in the round of 32. That’s a team, coached by Mark Few, that is no stranger to making NCAA tournament runs in recent years. It’s one that, in the round of 32, is an example of how the Jayhawks made their own lives tougher by not earning a better seed.

Here are 2 reasons Kansas basketball can make the Sweet 16

First, senior center Hunter Dickinson and graduate senior guard Kevin McCullar Jr. are both expected to be back when the NCAA tournament begins. They are All-America caliber talents that would be in Kansas’ starting five. They give the Jayhawks one of the best starting lineups in the country, and considering how much Self likes to play his starters big minutes, they will likely be given the opportunity to lead the team on a run.

Second, the shooting woes could be behind Kansas. It’ll take time to see how much confidence the Jayhawks can truly build ahead of their NCAA tournament opener, but the potential is there on the roster. Guys such as freshman guard Johnny Furphy and graduate senior guard Nicolas Timberlake could have big games.

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March Madness upset prediction for Kansas basketball

Kansas basketball makes it by Samford, but loses in the round of 32 against Gonzaga. It’s not the run the Jayhawks will be looking for, or are capable of. However, with the lack of momentum the team seems to have right now, barring a stark turnaround this is about as far as they are likely able to go.

Jordan Guskey covers University of Kansas Athletics at The Topeka Capital-Journal. He is the National Sports Media Association’s sportswriter of the year for the state of Kansas for 2022. Contact him at jmguskey@gannett.com or on Twitter at @JordanGuskey.

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This article originally appeared on Topeka Capital-Journal: Kansas basketball upset in 2024 March Madness predictions. Here’s why