Why Jets' trade for Aaron Rodgers shows cautious optimism about QB's future

It looks like a lot. It does. Not egregious, but certainly more compensation than some expected.

The Jets wanted Aaron Rodgers from the Packers. On Monday, they got him (and the No. 170 pick). The cost? A first-round pick swap (No. 13 for No. 15) and parting with the No. 42 and 207 selections this year, along with a conditional second-round pick that will likely become a first-round pick next.

Again: It’s a lot. It’s the type of move a team makes when they’re going all-in on a season. And, technically, the Jets are. They expect, with Rodgers, to compete for a Super Bowl in 2023.

But clouded in the hysteria of New York landing its first bonafide franchise quarterback since Joe Namath is that this isn’t just a one-year plan. It’s clear the expectation is that Rodgers leads this team for more than just one year.

There’s no such thing as a guarantee with the 39-year-old Rodgers, who, maybe more than anyone else in the NFL, marches to the beat of his own drum. He has his beliefs and he sticks to them. He has his opinions and he voices them. He does what he wants when he wants — and what he wants often changes by the day.

As a result, you never really know what the eventual first-ballot Hall-of-Famer is on the verge of. Even the Jets, internally, waited on bated breath for Rodgers to announce he intended to play for them on The Pat McAfee Show — confirming what he had already told others around the league. It’s clear, though, that the Jets are setting this team up to have Rodgers under center for more than just one season. Maybe the change of scenery has revitalized the once “90 percent retired” quarterback because there’s little doubt they do this without an understanding of the future.

GM Joe Douglas has adjusted his thinking on draft picks in recent years. You can credit his time spent working with trade-happy Howie Roseman in Philadelphia for that. He helped Douglas convert from viewing his college selections as babies, to lottery tickets. When presented a calculated opportunity to give up uncertainty for a sure thing … you do it. Douglas still doesn’t wheel and deal like his former boss, but he’s more open to it than earlier in his career.

He is not, though, by any stretch of the imagination, reckless. Which is what makes the conditions on that 2024 second-round pick so telling.

The holdup between the Jets and Packers came down to that very selection. There were wild demands and lukewarm lowball propositions made by both sides throughout this negotiation, but Green Bay seemed hellbent on acquiring a first-round pick. The Jets were not so eager to offer that up. They weren’t parting with No. 13, but anything in 2024 had to be protected if Rodgers left after one season.

The Jets could have made that a fourth-round pick to start, then tied conditions directly to Rodgers’ or the team’s success in 2023, then if he returned in 2024. Instead, Douglas agreed to give Green Bay a second that becomes a first if Rodgers plays 65 percent of the plays in 2023. That’s it. Barring a season-ending injury or something unforeseen, the Packers will receive that first-round pick.

It’s hard to envision a situation where Douglas agrees to such conditions unless the GM has reason to be cautiously optimistic Rodgers remains with the Jets into 2024 and, potentially, 2025 — no different than when Tom Brady gave the Buccaneers three seasons before officially retiring this offseason.

Maybe that’s because that situation doesn’t exist.

While the trade is agreed to, it’s not official yet. That’s because Rodgers has yet to sign a reworked contract to join the Jets. That’s only a formality. The two sides will take care of that in short order and, once they do, it’s believed to be one that will be incredibly team friendly.

Rodgers has made $305 million in on-field earnings throughout his career. Money is no longer his focus. He has one ring — he wants more (plural). In order to do so the expectation is that he will structure his contract so that the Jets have the financial means to build a championship team around him at all levels.

This offseason, aside from the draft where the Jets still own selections in the first two rounds, is virtually over. The Jets made some notable additions, including wideouts Mecole Hardman and Rodgers’ BFF Allen Lazard. But this financial flexibility Rodgers is expected to give the team extends beyond the offseason that’s already over. There’s nothing else New York can do at this moment, but next offseason, they’ll have the luxury of remaining aggressive while still having their quarterback.

If there’s one thing Rodgers has made clear throughout his career it’s that the only one who truly knows what he’s going to do is himself. The Jets winning the Super Bowl this year could give him all he’s ever wanted to accomplish and he hangs it up. The train going off the tracks in the worst of all worst ways could have him craving retirement just as well.

Because of this, after the trade broke, there was a resounding belief and assumption that Rodgers is only in it for one year. And, if that was indeed the case, and the Jets fell short of their goals, they’d have paid far too much for a band aid fix that never actually healed their wounds.

And, in the past, that very well might have been the case.

But this road to Rodgers was never about cutting corners. It was calculated and meticulous. They identified him after an exhaustive evaluation of all potential quarterbacking options as the best player for them. More importantly: Rodgers viewed the Jets as the best place for him to finish his career.

Maybe that does happen after the 2023 season. You never quite know with Rodgers.

But there’s cautious optimism he’ll call New York home for a bit longer.