Why is Bo Nix’s 2023 Heisman buzz dropping so drastically?
There was a time this year when Oregon Ducks quarterback Bo Nix was considered among the favorites to win the 2023 Heisman Trophy. After a career year for the Ducks in his first year under Dan Lanning, Nix was one of the top quarterbacks in the nation until he suffered an ankle injury against the Washington Huskies late in the season. That injury derailed the rest of his year in terms of Heisman-caliber stat production.
Back in May, following the conclusion of spring football, Nix had plus-1200 odds to win the prestigious award. That tied him with UW quarterback Michael Penix Jr. for the second-best odds in the nation.
At the end of June, Nix’s odds to win the Heisman on FanDuel had fallen to plus-1800, which was tied for fifth. The odds have not changed over the last month, but if you were to look at The Athletic’s annual Heisman fantasy draft, Nix’s stock is tanking.
Each year, the eight main college football writers at The Athletic sit down and go through a draft of players who they believe are the most likely to win the award. After picking four players each, they award points at the end of the year for where everyone placed in the voting, with bonuses given to those who were invited to the ceremony in New York, and who is the leader midway through the season.
Unsurprisingly, reigning Heisman winner Caleb Williams was the No. 1 pick. With USC expected to be among the best teams in the nation this season, that was a no-brainer. No. 2 was LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels, followed by Florida State QB Jordan Travis. Penix and Texas QB Quinn Ewers round out the first five picks.
Where does Nix come into play, you might ask? His name doesn’t get called until the second to last pick of the second round: No. 15 overall. Here are the names that were called ahead of him:
USC QB Caleb Williams
LSU QB Jayden Williams
Florida State QB Jordan Travis
Washington QB Michael Penix Jr.
Texas QB Quinn Ewers
Ohio State WR Marvin Harrison Jr.
North Carolina QB Drake Maye
Georgia QB Carson Beck
Ohio State QB Kyle McCord
Clemson QB Cade Klubnik
Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy
Notre Dame QB Sam Hartman
Tennessee QB Joe Milton
Michigan RB Blake Corum
Oregon QB Bo Nix
Ummm … that seems a bit low, doesn’t it?
Here’s what writer Stewart Mandel wrote about Nix after being able to steal him late in the second round of the draft:
How was this guy still available 15 picks in? Nix was outstanding last season, should be even better this year, and his team absolutely has a chance to be in Playoff contention. He’s also a redemption story — the guy who didn’t pan out at Auburn, got a second chance and turned into a star — which Heisman voters love.
Not everyone is as high on the Ducks this year as Oregon fans may be, understandably. That notion was well represented in the Pac-12 preseason media poll, where Dan Lanning’s squad was picked to finish fourth at the end of the year. However, dropping Nix this far down in the Heisman candidate rankings seems a bit drastic.
I can see legitimate arguments for the top five players on that list, but I would easily pine for Nix to rank ahead of Ewers, Beck, McCord, Klubnik and Milton, many of whom have experience that pales in comparison to Nix, a fifth-year starter.
In the end, none of this matters. At this point of the year, fans and media members can say anything, or predict anything, and it all just goes down as fodder for the players and teams to stick up on a bulletin board and try to prove wrong.
Will Nix feel a chip on his shoulder knowing that he is being heavily doubted to win an award that he was a favorite to win just a few months ago? Who knows.
It sure would be pretty entertaining to see him prove the doubters wrong, though.
