Why Alabama gymnastics can - and can't - make a run to the NCAA National Championships
The Alabama gymnastics team begins its quest for a seventh national championship this week.
The No. 8 seed Crimson Tide will travel to Ann Arbor for the Michigan Regional, where they will take on No. 9 seed Michigan, Kent State and Penn State in the second round on April 4. The top two teams out of those four will advance to the regional final, where they will meet the top two out of No. 1 seed Oklahoma, No. 16 seed NC State, Ohio State and the winner of a first-round matchup between Illinois and Ball State. The regional final will be on April 6.
Alabama was also the No. 8 seed in last season's gymnastics tournament, but failed to qualify for nationals after finishing fourth in the regional final. Coach Ashley Johnston looks to lead her team into the national semifinals in her second season.
The Crimson Tide is coming off a second-place finish at the SEC Championships where it scored 197.75, its fourth-highest score of the season. Alabama's top four scores this season have all come within the last five meets, so the team will look to carry its current positive momentum in Ann Arbor.
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Here is why Alabama can, and can't, make a run to the NCAA national semifinals this season:
Why Alabama gymnastics can advance to NCAA Nationals
Peaking at the right time
Alabama is hitting its stride just in time for the postseason. The team has scored at least 198 in three of its last five meets and just notched victories over two higher-seeded teams (No. 4 seed Florida and No. 7 seed Kentucky) at the SEC Championships.
The Tide's recent uptick in scoring coincides with steady improvement on both the balance beam and floor exercises. Over the first six weeks, Alabama averaged 49.163 on the beam and 49.367 on the floor. Over the last six, Alabama averages 49.467 on the beam and 49.571 on the floor.
Luisa Blanco
Luisa Blanco is one of the best gymnasts in the NCAA. Her individual National Qualifying Score of 39.695 ranks eighth in the country.
As a fifth-year senior, Blanco's experience performing on the biggest stages will be an asset for her and Alabama. In 2021, Blanco won an individual national championship on the balance beam, as well as four individual regional championships and four individual SEC championships. Last season, she qualified individually for the national championship on the uneven bars, finishing in a tie for second place.
Blanco can lead the Tide to the national semifinals if she maintains the level she has performed all season. At the very least, she can qualify individually and potentially bring another individual championship to Alabama.
Why Alabama gymnastics can't advance to NCAA Nationals
Wolverines' home-gym advantage
If Alabama and Michigan both advance to the regional final as expected, they will almost certainly meet No. 1 seed Oklahoma. The two-time defending national champions are essentially a lock to advance to the national semifinals, so Alabama's chances of joining them will likely come down to whether or not the Tide can beat Michigan on the road in its second attempt.
The Wolverines have been strong at home all season, as their top three scores all came in home meets. The Tide needs to be at its best in order to beat Michigan where they are most comfortable.
Makarri Doggette's absence
Just before the Crimson Tide posted its season-high 198.075 against Georgia on Feb. 23, graduate senior Makarri Doggette tore her Achilles during warmups, bringing her final season to a premature end.
Doggette was one of Alabama's top performers on the vault and uneven bars this season, and her experience as a graduate senior made her a source of veteran leadership. Like Blanco, Doggette won an individual regional championship and an SEC championship in 2021, both on uneven bars. While her impact as a leader and motivator is still felt, the Tide will certainly miss her impact as a competitor.
In Doggette's absence, Corinne Bunagan and Jamison Sears have stepped up on the vault, while Chloe LaCoursiere and Lilly Hudson have seen more work on the uneven bars.
Prediction for Alabama gymnastics at NCAA Regionals
Alabama advances to the Regional Final, where it comes in second behind Oklahoma and advances to the national semifinals. Although Michigan has been at its best in Ann Arbor this season, Alabama has proven its ability to score high on the road with a 198.025 at Oklahoma, a 197.675 at Texas Woman's University and a 197.575 at Florida. As for Michigan, the Wolverines' season-high score would rank fifth among Alabama's best scores. It will be a close contest, but Alabama has been the better team all season, particularly in the last month.
This article originally appeared on The Tuscaloosa News: Alabama gymnastics: NCAA regionals preview, team breakdown, prediction
