Where Oregon stands among teams with best chance to make College Football Playoff
A week ago, Dan Lanning and the Oregon Ducks had the entire world in front of them. They still do right now, but their room for error has vanished after a 36-33 loss to the No. 5 Washington Huskies on the road in one of the best games of the season.
That’s an important note for all Oregon fans reading this article. While the outcome this weekend was disappointing, with the Ducks suffering their first loss of the season, it’s imperative to realize that nothing has changed for the team. They still have a good shot at making the Pac-12 Championship Game if they can win the remainder of games on their schedule, and should the run the table from here on out, there’s a more-than-likely chance that they get into the College Football Playoff, as well.
How likely is that to happen? To answer that question, we turn as we often to to the ESPN Football Power Index, where teams are given a probability to see the postseason. Here’s where Oregon stands among the top teams in the nation when it comes to the percent chance that they can make it to the College Football Playoff:
Oklahoma Sooners
College Football Playoff Probability: 68.7%
National Championship Game Probability: 39.5%
National Champion Probability: 21.7%
Analysis: The rest of the schedule is pretty light for Oklahoma, so if they can win the Big 12 title game — a likely rematch against Texas — then they will undoubtedly end up in the CFP.
Ohio State Buckeyes
College Football Playoff Probability: 55.4%
National Championship Game Probability: 33.1%
National Champion Probability: 19.0%
Analysis: The season basically comes down to whether or not Ohio State can beat Michigan at the end of the year, and potentially go on to win the conference as well. They got the job done against Notre Dame earlier this season, so their resume needs no help.
Florida State Seminoles
College Football Playoff Probability: 45.0%
National Championship Game Probability: 19.7%
National Champion Probability: 8.8%
Analysis: Outside of North Carolina, there don’t seem to be too many worthy challengers in the ACC this year. If FSU goes undefeated, they’re in. However, I’m not sure that the conference is strong enough to get a one-loss champion into the playoff.
Washington Huskies
(Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images)
College Football Playoff Probability: 39.2%
National Championship Game Probability: 16.1%
National Champion Probability: 6.3%
Analysis: After the massive win over Oregon this week, the Huskies have an inside track to the Pac-12 title game and the CFP. Even if Washington loses in the Pac-12 title game, they could still get into the playoff, and if they suffer a loss but win the conference title, I still think they’re in.
Penn State Nittany Lions
College Football Playoff Probability: 34.4%
National Championship Game Probability: 17.9%
National Champion Probability: 9.1%
Analysis: Penn State hasn’t beaten anyone of note just yet, unless you count Iowa, but they will get an opportunity against both Ohio State and Michigan later this year. If they can get through those games unscathed, then there’s no chance they’re left out of the playoff.
Michigan Wolverines
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College Football Playoff Probability: 31.8%
National Championship Game Probability: 16.4%
National Champion Probability: 8.3%
Analysis: It’s basically a two-game schedule for Michigan this year, with Ohio State and Penn State acting as they only competition that they have in a slate full of cupcakes. If the Wolverines can win those two games, there’s no holding them out of the playoff.
Georgia Bulldogs
College Football Playoff Probability: 30.6%
National Championship Game Probability: 14.3%
National Champion Probability: 6.5%
Analysis: Georgia hasn’t looked as dominant as we’ve grown accustomed to in the past half-decade, but they still are the favorites to win the SEC and will likely get the benefit of the doubt in any playoff conversation should they be close.
Texas Longhorns
(Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
College Football Playoff Probability: 27.7%
National Championship Game Probability: 14.4%
National Champion Probability: 7.4%
Analysis: Texas dropped that game to Oklahoma earlier this year, but if they can get revenge in the Big 12 title game, it’s going to be hard to keep them out of the playoff, especially with a win over Alabama on their resume.
Alabama Crimson Tide
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College Football Playoff Probability: 25.4%
National Championship Game Probability: 12.2%
National Champion Probability: 6.0%
Analysis: Speaking of Alabama — they had that loss to Texas earlier this year, but if they can continue to string together wins and find a way to win the SEC, it’s going to be hard to keep them out of the playoff.
Oregon Ducks
(Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images)
College Football Playoff Probability: 20.0%
National Championship Game Probability: 9.4%
National Champion Probability: 4.6%
Analysis: The Ducks dropped a heartbreaker to Washington, but they still have a chance to win out, go to the Pac-12 title game, and get into the playoff as one-loss Pac-12 champions. It’s not an easy road, but it is certainly possible.
North Carolina Tar Heels
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College Football Playoff Probability: 9.9%
National Championship Game Probability: 3.0%
National Champion Probability: 0.9%
Analysis: The road is there for North Carolina to win the ACC championship over Florida State and represent the conference in the playoff, but with their defense and a lack of overall consistency, I wouldn’t say that it’s likely.
Ole Miss Rebels
College Football Playoff Probability: 3.6%
National Championship Game Probability: 1.3%
National Champion Probability: 0.5%
Analysis: The case for Ole Miss is very similar to the case for Alabama but without the respect from the college football world. With one loss already, the Rebels will need to be perfect going forward and hope that a few things break in their favor.
USC Trojans
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College Football Playoff Probability: 2.2%
National Championship Game Probability: 0.8%
National Champion Probability: 0.3%
Analysis: USC is still undefeated in conference play, so there’s a clear path for them to get to the Pac-12 title game and potentially make the playoff as a one-loss team. However, with the way that they’ve looked over the past few weeks, culminating in a 48-20 blowout loss to Notre Dame, I don’t think many people have confidence in that happening.
LSU Tigers
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College Football Playoff Probability: 2.2%
National Championship Game Probability: 0.8%
National Champion Probability: 0.4%
Analysis: I’m not going to lie, I don’t see a clear case for LSU to make the playoff. With two losses already, they need a ton of things to go right for them to even be considered in the conversation. Let’s just keep it to Heisman talk for Jayden Daniels for now.
Oregon State Beavers
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College Football Playoff Probability: 1.0%
National Championship Game Probability: 0.2%
National Champion Probability: 0.1%
Analysis: The Beavers are a potential sleeper candidate that nobody is talking about. They suffered that loss to Washington State, but there are enough marquee games left on their schedule against elite teams that should they be able to run the table the rest of the way and get a Pac-12 title under their belts, a spot in the playoff is certainly possible.
