Where’s Oklahoma in FiveThirtyEight’s latest College Football Playoff Projections?

·2 min read

Coming off an impressive performance against the Texas Tech Red Raiders, the 9-0 Oklahoma Sooners made it to their much-needed bye week with an unblemished record. With their most challenging three games to go starting this week with Baylor, the bye couldn’t have come at a better time. Refreshed, reenergized, and hopefully a little bit healthier, the Sooners should be primed and ready for the stretch run of the season.

However, not playing has its drawbacks as the college football world quickly forgets what you did. With a new slate of college football games to analyze, those on the bye week don’t get to benefit from the “what have you done for me lately” crowd.

Not playing has dropped Oklahoma’s chances of making the College Football Playoff from 50% last week to 45% this week. Again, they have the third-best odds to make the playoff behind Georgia and Alabama, coming in just ahead of Ohio State at 42%.

FiveThirtyEight, led by Nate Silver, uses statistical analysis for polling and predicting results. For years, ESPN has used its analysis to predict the College Football Playoff participants, college football predictions, and bowl games. On Monday, FiveThirtyEight released its College Football Playoff projections, and the Oklahoma Sooners come in with the third-best chance to make it.

With a win against the Baylor Bears this week, the Sooners would have a 55% chance to make the College Football Playoff. A loss would drop Oklahoma’s chances to 26%. According to their projections, they’ll be in the College Football Playoff if the Sooners win out.

The road ahead won’t be easy. Though Baylor’s coming off of an improbable loss to TCU, they’re a tough team that will give the Sooners a fight. Much like they did last year, and we can’t forget the performance Jalen Hurts had to put on to will the Sooners to victory the last time Oklahoma played in Waco.

After that, they’ll play host to Iowa State, which has been a tough matchup the last few years. Then they’ll finish the season with arguably the most formidable defense on their schedule in the Oklahoma State Cowboys. Bedlam has a chance to be a matchup of top 10 teams to close out the regular season.

Oklahoma controls its destiny. As long as they keep winning, they’ll be right where they want to in December and January. A loss, and they’ll need a lot of help along the way to reach the College Football Playoff.

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