What's in store for the Wildcats: Predicting Kentucky football's 2023 season game by game
LEXINGTON, Ky. — High expectations accompanied the Kentucky football team heading into last season.
The Wildcats didn't live up to them.
Despite boasting a future NFL draft pick in quarterback Will Levis and fielding another stellar defense, UK stumbled to a 7-6 record after a 4-0 start.
But Kentucky hopes for a bounce-back showing this fall, thanks to another transfer quarterback (Devin Leary), a trio of explosive receivers (Barion Brown, Dane Key and Tayvion Robinson) and one of the best defensive players (lineman Deone Walker) in the country. The 2023 slate starts off favorably for the Wildcats, but it gets considerably tougher in October.
Can UK beat national menace Georgia for the first time since 2009? Will Kentucky topple mighty Alabama for only the third time in program history? And can the Wildcats continue their recent success against Louisville, Missouri and South Carolina?
Time will tell. But with the offseason wrapping up and UK's opener against Ball State coming soon, now feels like a good time to take a crack at predicting the outcome of each game on the 2023 schedule.
Ball State (Sept. 2)
Analysis: The Cardinals have played in a bowl in two of the past three seasons and were close last season at 5-7. This Mid-American Conference crew has talent — HERO Sports named five Cardinals Group of 5 preseason All-Americans — but not enough to knock off the Wildcats, who want to put on a show in Leary's debut and Liam Coen's return as offensive coordinator.
Prediction: Kentucky 45, Ball State 17
Eastern Kentucky (Sept. 9)
Analysis: Quarterback Parker McKinney holds every passing record of note at Eastern Kentucky. But the Colonels will need far more than just him to upset UK. The Wildcats will enter this game as a heavy favorite — and should win with ease — but shouldn't let this game get too out of hand. That's out of respect for Walt Wells, one of Mark Stoops' former staffers. Wells was a quality control assistant for UK for two years (2018-19) and now is entering his fourth season as EKU's coach.
Prediction: Kentucky 41, Eastern Kentucky 14
Akron (Sept. 16)
Analysis: Akron has only three bowl berths since becoming an FBS program in 1987. It hasn't won more than four games since going 7-7 in 2017. Second-year coach Joe Moorhead topped Kentucky in 2019, when he led Mississippi State's program. This meeting with the Wildcats won't go quite as well for him.
Prediction: Kentucky 56, Akron 3
at Vanderbilt (Sept. 23)
Analysis: Vanderbilt ended its 26-game conference losing streak last season in Lexington, stunning the Wildcats 24-21 in arguably the worst loss of the Stoops era. UK will enter its first road game of the season looking for revenge. And it will be a reunion for Kentucky running back Ray Davis, who spent the past two years at Vandy and played a key role for the Commodores in last season's win. This season, he should be a driving force in a victory for the Wildcats.
Prediction: Kentucky 42, Vanderbilt 14
Florida (Sept. 30)
Analysis: Kentucky vies for its fifth 5-0 start since World War II; Florida wants to avoid only its second three-game losing streak to UK in that same span. And given that Florida could already have two losses — it opens at Utah and faces Tennessee in Game 3 — this one has a chance to take on even greater importance for second-year Gators coach Billy Napier. But the Wildcats, who are picked to finish one spot ahead of the Gators this fall in the SEC East, have a better quarterback in Leary and more consistent defense. That will be the difference in this nail-biter.
Prediction: Kentucky 24, Florida 21
at Georgia (Oct. 7)
Analysis: College football's new gold standard, Georgia enters this fall aiming for its third consecutive national title. And UGA has had UK's number since before it was a two-time champ, defeating Stoops in all 10 meetings. Just as they were in 2021, both these teams should be 6-0. And just like that game, the Bulldogs' superior depth should win out.
Prediction: Georgia 34, Kentucky 17
Missouri (Oct. 14)
Analysis: UK has won seven of the past eight matchups with Missouri. And Kentucky's expected to be the better team this fall. The Tigers are picked to finish ahead of only Vandy in the SEC's Eastern Division. But with Kentucky coming off a crushing loss to Georgia — one that will take a physical and mental toll on the Wildcats — Missouri is in prime position to triumph in Lexington for the first time since 2013. A fourth-quarter rally, spearheaded by Leary, helps the hosts tame the Tigers.
Prediction: Kentucky 21, Missouri 17
Tennessee (Oct. 28)
Analysis: The last time Tennessee and Kentucky squared off in Lexington, they combined for 87 points and nearly 1,200 yards of total offense in a 45-42 win for the Volunteers. While the teams might not light up the scoreboard like that this fall, expect another close game at Kroger Field. UT has success against Stoops over the years — the Wildcats are 2-8 versus their border-state rival in his 10-year tenure — and should add to that misery in 2023.
Prediction: Tennessee 30, Kentucky 27
at Mississippi State (Nov. 4)
Analysis: Kentucky's last road win against an SEC West foe came in 2009 (versus Auburn). UK's last road win over Mississippi State came in 2008. With Mississippi State breaking in rookie coach Zach Arnett, the Wildcats have a good chance to take advantage — and in the process, move ahead in the all-time series, 26-25.
Prediction: Kentucky 37, Mississippi State 24
Alabama (Nov. 11)
Analysis: With two new coordinators, questions at quarterback and an ever-so-slight dip in performance on defense and at receiver, Alabama appears more vulnerable — on paper, at least — than at any time since Nick Saban's first season in 2007. But games aren't played on paper. For despite the uncertainty enveloping the Crimson Tide at the outset of the season, they still own the best roster, top to bottom, that doesn't reside in Athens, Georgia, or Columbus, Ohio. Still, Kentucky should make Alabama sweat until the final minute.
Prediction: Alabama 24, Kentucky 20
at South Carolina (Nov. 18)
Analysis: The Gamecocks already are pulling out all the stops for this one, with plans to host Darude — the Finnish DJ famous for "Sandstorm," which has become an anthem for South Carolina athletics. He'll play a pregame concert and be the game's celebrity starter. Though UK has won seven of nine in this series, South Carolina earned a 24-14 victory last season at Kroger Field, when backup quarterback Kaiya Sheron made his first career start in place of an injured Levis. With some offseason hard feelings between Stoops and South Carolina coach Shane Beamer, the intensity will be off the charts. Expect plenty of lead changes and swings in momentum before the Gamecocks win on a last-minute touchdown drive orchestrated by Spencer Rattler.
Prediction: South Carolina 23, Kentucky 20
at Louisville (Nov. 25)
Analysis: A victory gives Kentucky five straight in the Governor's Cup, matching the longest winning streak by either school since the series resumed in 1994. (Louisville all five from 2011 through 2015.) Though UK has won the past four games by a combined score of 179-57, Jeff Brohm's club should put up a much better fight this time around. It just won't be enough.
Prediction: Kentucky 45, Louisville 38
Final record: 8-4 (4-4 SEC)
Making the grade: From vets to newcomers, assessing Kentucky football position groups heading into 2023 season
Reach Kentucky men’s basketball and football reporter Ryan Black at rblack@gannett.com and follow him on Twitter at @RyanABlack.
This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: Kentucky football 2023: Predicting win total for Mark Stoops' team
