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What's LSU baseball's path to NCAA Tournament? Here's what needs to happen

This season has been anything but a cinch for LSU baseball.

But after all the struggles and inconsistencies, the Tigers (29-17, 7-14 SEC) look around and can still glean on a simple path back to the NCAA Tournament.

LSU, the reigning NCAA College World Series champion, hosts No. 1 Texas A&M (39-6, 15-6 SEC) this weekend, the schedule providing the club a monumental chance to illuminate its NCAA regional path far more.

Afterward, seven games remain on LSU's regular-season schedule, including two key series at No. 17 Alabama (28-16, 9-12 SEC) and the season finale home series versus Ole Miss (23-20, 7-14 SEC).

To coach Jay Johnson, his Tigers cannot lose their final midweek game against Northwestern State next Tuesday night.

"The path is simple. We will be 23-3 outside the league (if LSU beats NSU). I don't know if there's five teams in the country that can say that," Johnson said. "We've played a difficult schedule, we played better in the back half of the year. Playing the No. 1 team in the country, that's a great opportunity in terms of opponent winning percentage. And then, two others teams that we're competing for a bid with late in the season. So there's an opportunity to finish strong.

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"I think we're a lot closer. We're not where we want to be, but you can't convince me they're not still competing and trying to win every game we play and that's the most important part."

What exactly is LSU's path to make its 12th straight NCAA regional? Here's what has to happen and what the Tigers need to be watching for as they enter conference tournament play.

LSU baseball's NCAA Tournament resume

LSU's resume is good, not great. As it stands, the Tigers hold the No. 42 spot in the RPI (ratings percentage index, a measure that combines a team's record, opponents' records and the record of those opponents) and their strength of schedule is 35. Measured against the other teams in the SEC that are on the bubble, those numbers are far lower than Florida (22 RPI, 1 strength of schedule), Alabama (14 RPI, 5 strength of schedule) or Ole Miss (27 RPI, 3 strength of schedule).

The three nonconference losses (Stony Brook, Xavier, Southern) are damaging and are the main culprits for the low RPI and SOS. LSU does have wins over Texas and Louisiana – oddly enough, the Cajuns are the better nonconference win of the two now – but the team wasn't really challenged outside of those games.

Having a .333 win percentage would be a killer in any other year, but the Tigers have played the toughest SEC schedule, so there's the positive in that.

How LSU baseball can make the NCAA Tournament

Got to get at least one win against Texas A&M this weekend. Just one win would bolster LSU's resume and would dramatically improve its metrics. But the most important thing about getting a win over the Aggies would mean it frees the Tigers up in the final two SEC series at Alabama and Ole Miss at home – there would be a tad more wiggle room, especially on the road at Alabama, where if they get one or two wins in Tuscaloosa, this conversation quickly takes on a much different tone.

If LSU can get to 12 SEC wins by the time the SEC Tournament gets here, it will be a great shape. In that case, it's possible winning at least one conference tourney game could get LSU into an NCAA regional as a No. 3 seed.

LSU baseball needs to be watching these conference tournaments

Bid stealers.

They emerge almost every season in college baseball, but it feels like there are more viable contenders for that moniker than ever before. And for LSU's sake, that population being as low as possible will be paramount for its NCAA Tournament at-large chances. These are the conference tournaments the Tigers are going to need to keep their eye on and the team they need to root against.

Big East: Right now, four teams are in the mix for the top of the league in UConn, which is projected into the field, along with Creighton, Xavier and Georgetown. It's possible a bid stealer could emerge if one of these wins the conference tournament. LSU needs UConn to win it.

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Coastal Athletic Association: College of Charleston, Northeastern and North Carolina-Wilmington are all in a dead heat for the regular season CAA title. Of these three teams, LSU needs Northeastern to emerge and grab the auto bid as it had the best RPI despite a worrisome strength of schedule.

Conference USA: Dallas Baptist, which is projected to easily make the NCAA Tournament field, could make things much easier on LSU and win the C-USA championship. Louisiana Tech, which won the series at DBU this season, is currently leading the league race. The Tigers need Dallas Baptist to lock that race up.

Southland: Lamar is LSU's vested rooting interest in the Southland race. If Nicholls were to upset Lamar for the tournament championship, it's possible that the two wouldn't get it as Lamar has a putrid strength of schedule. But the Cardinals could possibly win 40 games, and they do have the series sweep at Oklahoma.

Cory Diaz covers the LSU Tigers for The Daily Advertiser as part of the USA TODAY Network. Follow his Tigers coverage on Twitter: @ByCoryDiaz. Got questions regarding LSU athletics? Send them to Cory Diaz at bdiaz@gannett.com.

This article originally appeared on Lafayette Daily Advertiser: What LSU baseball needs to do, have happen to make NCAA Tournament