What to watch: Week 15 college football viewing guide, picks against the spread
Every week throughout the season we’ll give you a college football viewing guide by highlighting the five best games of the coming weekend. We will pick those five games against the spread and highlight some other matchups that caught our eye from a betting perspective.
A college football season unlike any other is limping toward the finish line.
Though there will be a slew of games on the slate next week as well, this is technically the final week of the regular season for most conferences. Conference title games are on tap next weekend. There’s even a bowl game scheduled for next Saturday, too.
Though a few high-profile games — like Ohio State vs. Michigan — have been wiped from the schedule, there are still teams out there jockeying for spots in their respective conference championship games. There are also opportunities for teams to better position themselves for improved bowl slots.
(Note: All times ET, point spreads/totals from BetMGM)
Nevada vs. San Jose State
Time: 10 p.m. (Friday) | TV: CBSSN | Line: San Jose State -4.5 | Total: 58.5
There’s a huge game in the Mountain West on Friday night that deserves your attention. Because of COVID-19 restrictions in Santa Clara County, what should have been a home game for San Jose State against Nevada will now be played in Las Vegas. And a trip to the conference title game is on the line.
San Jose State has been one of the surprise teams of the season. The Spartans are undefeated at 5-0 after going a combined 8-28 in Brent Brennan’s first three seasons leading the program. With Nick Starkel (yes, the former Texas A&M and Arkansas QB) leading the way, the offense has been one of the better units in the Mountain West.
But Nevada’s has been better. The Wolf Pack have a top 10 passing offense in the country behind the electric combination of QB Carson Strong and WR Romeo Doubs.
Sam Cooper: Nevada +4.5, Nick Bromberg: Nevada +4.5
No. 11 Oklahoma at West Virginia
Time: Noon | TV: ABC | Line: Oklahoma -14 | Total: 56.5
Oklahoma clinched a spot in the Big 12 title game last week, but it wasn’t the most impressive performance OU has had in recent months. The Sooners started the year 1-2, but have since reeled off five straight wins — mostly in blowout fashion. Last week, OU was a bit shorthanded due to some COVID-19 cases in the program and ended up putting up only 269 yards of offense in a 27-14 win over Baylor.
With a rematch with Iowa State around the corner, Saturday’s game at West Virginia is an interesting spot. It’s a game to win in order for the Sooners to be in the best position possible at the end of the year, but it’s inconsequential in the Big 12 standings. ISU, which has a bye this week, wrapped up the regular season title by trouncing WVU 42-6 last week.
WVU is going to want to rebound from that lackluster performance, so expect a motivated team looking to upset OU. The Mountaineers have not defeated the Sooners since joining the Big 12.
Sam: West Virginia +14, Nick: West Virginia +14
Navy at Army
Time: 3 p.m. | TV: CBS | Line: Army -5.5 | Total: 40.5
The Army-Navy game usually gets the spotlight this time of year. The historic rivalry has typically been played the week after the conference title games, but the pandemic has affected everything about the 2020 college football season. This game is no different.
Not only will the game air alongside dozens of other games, it will be played on Army’s campus at West Point (Army was the designated home team this year) instead of a neutral site like Philadelphia or Baltimore. Navy won 14 straight in the series from 2002 to 2015, before Army went on a three-year winning streak of its own.
Navy won last year 31-7, but the Black Knights are favored this year. Army is 7-2 on the year while Navy is 3-6 and mired in a four-game losing streak.
Sam: Army -5.5, Nick: Army -5.5
No. 17 North Carolina at No. 10 Miami
Time: 3:30 p.m. | TV: ABC | Line: Miami -3.5 | Total: 67.5
A trip to the Orange Bowl could be on the line when North Carolina visits Miami on Saturday. Notre Dame and Clemson have already wrapped up the top two spots in the ACC, and if both make the College Football Playoff, a spot in the Orange Bowl is open to the conference’s third highest-ranked team.
Miami has an 8-1 record with its only loss coming against Clemson. The Hurricanes are ranked seven spots ahead of the 17th-ranked Tar Heels, a 7-3 team with losses to Florida State and Virginia. If UNC pulls off the upset, it’s no guarantee that it will leapfrog Miami in the final CFP standings.
It’s also no sure thing that both Notre Dame and Clemson finish in the top four, but the allure of a possible trip to a New Year’s Six bowl game adds a bit of juice to this matchup.
Sam: North Carolina +3.5, Nick: Miami -3.5
No. 15 USC at UCLA
Time: 7:30 p.m. | TV: ABC | Line: USC -3.5 | Total: 62
Entering the final weekend of the Pac-12’s regular season, USC and Colorado sit atop the South Division standings at 4-0. But USC has the inside track to the conference title game because all four of its wins have been league games. Colorado played San Diego State on Nov. 28, the day it was supposed to play USC.
USC had COVID-19 issues within its program and was unable to play that weekend, so CU played a non-conference game instead. Now USC could end up benefiting from that canceled matchup with the Buffs. Even if Colorado beats Utah on Saturday, USC would clinch the division with a win over UCLA on Saturday night. At 3-2, UCLA feels like it could be turning the corner in Chip Kelly’s third season at the helm. The Bruins are coming off a 25-18 road win over Arizona State last week.
Sam: USC -3.5, Nick: USC -3.5
Head-to-head ATS: Sam: 36-27, Nick: 30-33
Week 15’s best bets
Nick Bromberg (Last week: 0-3, Overall 22-20)
No. 1 Alabama at Arkansas: The Crimson Tide have been demolishing opponents lately. But with an SEC title game coming up on Dec. 19, I think Alabama puts it on cruise control in the second half. Arkansas has the offense to easily get a backdoor cover in the second half if Alabama lets up. This is way too many points: Pick: Arkansas +32
Utah at No. 21 Colorado: The Buffs are 4-0 and 4-0 against the spread this year. Why not 5-0? Colorado is giving so few points at home in a game that was moved to Saturday morning that sticking with the hot team is the right play here. Utah is just 1-2 against the spread and the Utes’ only win came in a game where Oregon State didn’t have its starting quarterback. Pick: Colorado -1.5
Houston at Memphis: I’m truly not sure what to think about here. Houston is 3-3 and hasn’t played in nearly a month. Memphis lost by 14 to Tulane in Week 14 after winning its last two AAC games by a combined four points. Memphis is not a strong 6-3. But the Tigers are getting too many points. Pick: Memphis +4.5
Sam Cooper (Last week: 3-0, Overall: 26-16)
Navy at Army: When two service academies play, the under hits at a ridiculous rate. The updated figure is 36-9-1 dating back to 2005. Specifically in the Army-Navy game, the under is 16-4 in their last 20 meetings. Sure, 40.5 is a low number, but there have been fewer than 40 points scored in the last six Army-Navy games. Pick: Under 40.5
Michigan State at Penn State: Penn State’s passing game has been lackluster, so it has been using a methodical, run-heavy offense. And when PSU gets to the red zone, it has been one of the worst teams in the country at finishing those drives with touchdowns. MSU is even worse offensively, averaging a measly 2.75 yards per rush. This should be pretty low-scoring. Pick: Under 49.5
Duke at Florida State: Florida State hasn’t played a game in nearly a month and hasn’t won a game since Oct. 17. This feels like a good spot, especially with QB Jordan Travis healthy. Travis is a good runner, and Duke’s rush defense has been poor. Duke has lost its last three games by an average margin of 34.3 points. It feels like the Blue Devils are ready for this season to be finished. Pick: Florida State -4.5
For other Week 15 picks from Sam Cooper, click here.
For Week 15 picks from Dan Wetzel, Pete Thamel and Pat Forde, subscribe to the Yahoo Sports College Podcast.
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